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Summary of the item
According to researchers from the United States, in the second half of the 21st century, the number of people on Earth will begin to decline. This will happen due to a decrease in the birth rate and will lead to an increase in the number of older people. The situation can be mitigated by supporting families with children and an open immigration policy. These findings of specialists from the University of Washington, published in the Lancet, are retelling The New York Times (Gladstone, 2020). The risk of overpopulation of the Earth has been worrying scientists for a long time. Medicine has significantly reduced mortality and increased human life expectancy, which has led to an increase in the number of people on the planet from one billion in 1804 to 7.8 billion in 2020. Such high growth rates are fraught with the depletion of resources, and there are not so many territories suitable for life.
However, in all likelihood, humanity will not face severe overpopulation problems shortly – by 2060, there will be another 2 billion people, and then the population will gradually decline.
It is difficult to say how this will affect the planet. While fewer people will reduce the burden on the environment otherwise, the future could be rather bleak.
While population decline is potentially useful for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and stress on food systems, as the number of older people increases and the number of young people decreases, economic problems will arise as society strives to develop with fewer workers and taxpayers. Countries’ ability to accumulate the capital needed to fund social support and health care for older people will diminish, says biostatistician Stein Emil Wallet, lead author of the study.
The researchers used data on population, disease, and demographics around the world. According to their calculations, by 2064, the population will grow to 9.7 billion people. Then it will begin to decline and by the end of the century will fall to 8.8 billion. These figures differ significantly from other estimates made in recent years. According to some of them, the population will grow to 12.3 billion by 2100. In the calculations, much depends on what data and tools to rely on, the researchers note. It is necessary to take into account all incentives and restrictions affecting fertility. For example, today in sub-Saharan Africa, on average, one woman gives birth to 4.7 children. The record holder for fertility is Niger, where there are seven births for every mother. However, by 2100, the number of births, according to the researchers’ calculations, should drop to 1.8.
Fertility will fall in other countries as well. Japan’s population is projected to decline from 128 million in 2017 to 60 million in 2100. China’s population, which now stands at nearly one and a half billion, will fall to about 730 million.
Shortly, China is likely to overtake the United States in terms of GDP. However, if the number of the working-age population falls, then the United States will regain first place by the beginning of the next century. However, only if the country has enough able-bodied population.
For countries with high incomes and low birth rates, the best solutions for maintaining current population levels, economic growth, and geopolitical security are open immigration policies and social policies that support families with the desired number of children, the researchers say. “There is, however, a real risk that, in the face of declining populations, some countries may consider adopting policies that limit access to reproductive health services, with disastrous consequences.
In the second half of the century, the number of people over 80 will increase sixfold, the researchers note. This will raise serious questions about social support and place the focus on health resources.
The Reason Why I Picked This Item
This news shows the need to take into account all incentives and restrictions affecting fertility. Earlier work is based primarily on the overall fertility rate. It reflects the number of children a person will have in a lifetime. It also uses data on groups of women and the number of their children born by a certain age. However, in this work, the researchers also took into account the possible changes in fertility, mortality, and migration that may occur. This is necessary for the reason that, in addition to possible endless growth, humanity is also threatened with a decline in numbers due to a decrease in the birth rate. Both of these options will lead to negative consequences, the fight against which is worth thinking about right now.
Bias or Agenda the Source of the News Item Might Have
The New York Times is the most influential newspaper with national and widespread international circulation. During its 153 years of history, The New York Times has developed a reputation as one of the most respectable and influential newspapers in the United States. The New York Times, as an international media, has a reputation for influencing global affairs (Von Nordheim et al., 2018). The New York Times, which throughout its history is considered the most respected and influential newspaper in the United States, is cited as a source of reliable information and as a publication that reflects the position of leading U.S. economic and political circles.
A Question I have After Learning From the News Item.
Is it correct to assume that the population growth forecast is more about predicting the socio-economic institutions’ restructuring rather than fears about the overgrowth or drastic decline of population per se?
References
Gladstone, R. (2020). World Population Could Peak Decades Ahead of U.N. Forecast, Study Asserts. The New York Times. Web.
Von Nordheim, G., Boczek, K., & Koppers, L. (2018). Sourcing the Sources: An analysis of the use of Twitter and Facebook as a journalistic source over 10 years in The New York Times, The Guardian, and Süddeutsche Zeitung. Digital Journalism, 6(7), 807-828.
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