Who Will Win the 2015 Canadian Federal Election?

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Introduction

Voting is a fundamental aspect in any civic engagement. Most political scientists have likened voting to the health of a democracy arguing that the declining voting trends could be symbolic of a democratic deficit, a phenomenon that has characterized most regions in the developing world (Pammett & LeDuc, 2003). In his uncharacteristic study of democracy and governance, Hans-Hermann Hoppe argues that political leaders are chosen for their demonstrated efficacy as morally immodest firebrands. Therefore, according to Hope, the concept of democracy virtually gives assurance to that only bad and dangerous men will ever win an election.

Those who seek to rise to the top of government are those men and women who appear to have the willingness to break the moral obligations that the majority of the people are determined to follow. As such, the greater the power wielded by a political office sought, the more likely that individuals positioning themselves for such offices have little or no regard for right and wrong. Within our midst, we can soften find elected leaders that we have great admiration for, but at the federal level, officials of such caliber might be scarce and unpredictable. Taking time to understand the nature of elections is perhaps, the foremost step to win an election (Pammett & LeDuc, 2003).

The art of winning an office is a high calling that requires adequate time, careful planning, ample funding, and personal energy. Very few people can always jump into the bandwagon of an election spree to win a public office, perhaps with the exception of those who are already wealthy, famous or popular (Pammett & LeDuc, 2003). However, elections are not necessarily won based on popularity and monetary worth alone, history has always confirmed that campaigns can also be won especially based on hard work and audacity of purpose. Majority of elected leaders who are currently in high offices today are at one time little known candidates for some local office, and in the course of their service, worked their way up the ladder.

Political Marketing Strategies

Political marketers use extensive research to gain sufficient acquaintance with the electorate to help shape the political positioning of the party with the elector preferences, by making informed decisions in an attempt to achieve electoral objectives. By now, most parties have gained significant insight from opinion research that they are now using in adjusting to the political dynamics and these are in the forms of selection of messages, billboards, mass media, and images.

Most parties have so far stepped up their marketing intelligence to help in restructuring the image of their respective candidates as well as in designing party policies and the development of election platform (Pammett & LeDuc, 2003). Canada has long been at the center stage of commercial marketing innovations most of which have been adapted for use in Canadian elections. As has been the case elsewhere, objections have arisen due to the erosion of some of the most celebrated traditional practices that mass media has created. In Canada anxiety about the political marketing trends, seem to have reached a fever pitch with most parties gambling for media publicity in the run up to the 2015 October federal elections (Pammett & LeDuc, 2003).

Voting Behavior

As history of the Canadian election bare, immediately a general election is concluded, the country fast start gearing for the next election. For this, with merely a year and few months remaining to the October 2015 election, it is little exaggeration to declare that the last slot in the coming federal election line up was filled when Justin Trudeau was declared the leader of Liberal Party in April (Grenier, 2014). This makes the three most viable leadership prospects deemed to be Prime Minister Stephen Harper of conservative, Justin Trudeau of Liberal Party, and New Democratic Party (NDP) Thomas Mulcair. However, candidate like the Green Party leader Elizabeth May and Andre Bellavance of Bloc Quebecois can never be ruled out to influence to the election victory (Grenier, 2014).

Starting with the incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper of conservative whose government numeral scandals has a great influence on the Canadians voting behavior. Grenier (2014) notes that If Harper wants good record that can help him win the 2015 election, he has to keep his government on track that will enable him avoid the attack by opposition leaders. Otherwise, his opponent majorly Mulcair and Trudeau will utilize that to their advantage, and present themselves and their parties to the people of Canada as the only legitimate alternative to the conventional government out to rob their people off their dignity.

However, Prime Minister Stephen Harper of conservative party, has gained tremendous popularity in Canada due to his cautious approach to solve problems and foster economic growth as opposed to urge to engage in conflict or pick fight(Tandt, 2014). This, as noticed in his silence in the just ended election that finally includes Quebec in the Canadian republic among other diplomatic solution is expected to increase his popularity. This will ultimately influence the voting behavior in the Quebec region where his government currently holds just five seats (Tandt, 2014).

Just as the PM, the New Democratic Party (NDP) choice, Thomas Mulcair is also believed to be a beneficiary in the concluded election that included Quebec in Canadian republic. This, as political analysts’ states is because of the division in loyalties among his main contender’s and opinion makers for Quebec supporters (Tandt, 2014). In addition, Tandt (2014) states that it is also important to note that the diminution of the separatist menace reduces the foremost obstacles to NDP advancement in regions like Ontario, Atlantic Canada and the West.

This is because of the party’s contribution and support that enhanced a fast track of the kickoff of negotiation on separation. Moreover, the NDP outright declaration support for 50-per-cent-plus-one adoption as sufficient for approval of the referendum (Tandt, 2014). Justin Trudeau of Liberal Party, as Grenier (2014) indicates, besides enjoying the fruits of his father whom most of the Canadians are well acquainted with, he will influence a large voting pattern in the entire Canadian Republic for his bold contention. This gives him an upper hand amongst his competitors. However, the fact that he is a de facto leader portrays him a failure in managing national unity crisis, in which he and the federal Liberals had a clear competitive advantage (Tandt, 2014).

Positioning of Parties and their respective Leaders based on current efforts

Various parties are already positioning themselves for the bruising political duel ahead of the Canadian 2015 federal elections. Already, there are various misconceptions arising over the forthcoming Canadian federal elections, some of these allegations might be true, yet others only suffice to beneath the surface in a way that blurs our vision of what lies ahead. The first item though, according to Pammett and LeDuc (2000), is that the Conservatives, despite the fact that the opinion polls have positioned them down the scales, seem to have a hidden strength. The recent polls opine that nearly thirty seats are likely to be added to the House of Commons in the forthcoming elections through redistribution.

The other factor is the rise and rise of Justin Trudeau and the support his party has amassed in the recent polls, a feature that political analysts opine will lessen the possibility of cooperation between NDP and the Liberal party. In 2015, the House of Commons is expected to grow in stature from the current 308 to 338 members to accommodate the growing population in areas that were earlier perceived to be less supportive of the party. Numerous seats are up for grabs for the for the party, six of which are located in Alberta, six in the British Columbia, 15 in Ontario and 3 in Quebec (Farney & Levine, 2007). Following federal politics keenly, equips one with the familiarity of this redistribution. For the Conservatives, it is a forgone conclusion that the six new seats will be their undisputed gifts. In addition, the party also seems to be doing perfectly well in the rapidly growing suburban areas.

Globe and Mail have done all that is within their capacity to predict the nature of the outcome in the forthcoming federal elections. The Globe holds that if the Canadian electorate approaches the 2015 ballot in the pattern same as they did in 2011, then the Conservatives are likely to bag in the 22 out of the 30 new seats available.

Competitor Differentiation

Political parties in Canada hold a great deal of value in the Canadian electorate (Farney & Levine, 2007). Canadians are well supplied with political patronage and the country’s partisan structure can always attest to this fact. With at least four registered political parties and several other grass root parties, it can at times be somewhat difficult to keep track of all parties. According to Farney and Levine (2007), the Canadian parliamentary system often presumes the existence of political parties, yet parliament cannot function without these parties.

As in the case of most parliamentary systems, in Canada, the party that garners the most seats in the Canadian House of Commons is given the mantle to form the government including the mandate to appoint the prime minister and the cabinet. Political parties in Canada have a hierarchical organization and they function more or less in a way that mirrors the other (Farney & Levine, 2007). There is always a single leader for every party who formulates the policies of the party and determines the party’s position on various current affairs. Accordingly, the position held by the party leader on various issues has to be that which party members dutifully support. In Canada’s elections, leaders of all registered parties have to vie for the position of prime minister.

In Canada, political parties engage in several programs, the necessitating the need for constant financing. This entails election campaigning patronage, retaining of party think tank, as well as providing advisory backing for the party (Farney & Levine, 2007).

Even though such parties often get financial support from different avenues, private donations form the biggest source of the financing. Individual members in Canada have the permission to donate money in support of a party of choice, and this donation is not restricted to one particular party. Essentially, individuals can donate to more than one party. However, the Canadian central government has introduced several confines on members’ contributions, as a source of finance for political parties and has gone further to institute financial support limits on the sum of money individuals may contribute, including precincts on the avenues of such donations. Trade unions, corporations, and non-Canadian citizens are strictly prohibited from contributing many to the federal political parties (Farney & Levine, 2007).

Voting segments (geographic, demographic, and psychographic)

With less than two years to the next federal election, the major political parties in Canada can be downed to three. In these three, the concurrent revelation by political analysts and the poll firms indicate the Prime Minister Stephen of conservatives’ party to be leading a with a slight percentage margin of the Canadians’ voting population (Grenier 2014). According to Grenier (2014), the conservatives would garner 32 percent of the vote. The liberal party would gather 31 percent as the third close contender could collect 26 per cent. With varied opinions that give the differences in voting pattern, various parties enjoy popularity in different geographic, demographic, and psychographic factors for different reasons.

Amongst them as the poll suggests, according to Grenier (2014), voters born outside Canada gives the Conservative party an edge over the competitors. On the other hand, the pollsters states that Canadian born voters would prefer Liberal Party. While at the same time, the middle-class families would prefer Liberal Party. This is said to be due to their perceived effort to revive the economy. Further, the upper class argue that it was the work of Paul Martin and the Liberal government that strengthened Canada’s banking system and significantly uplifted the Canada’s weathering financial crisis. This gives his Son and leader of Liberal party an easy ride amongst upper class. Grenier (2014) indicates that the BC and Quebec will be the territory of NDP, as it has been in their voting trends.

The Ottawa as beneficiary for the current regime is destined to vote for Conservatives. While, Ontario as pretty right wing province is predicted to support the Liberals as a revenge plan to move away from the current government whom they believe to have been oppressing them. The survey as Grenier (2014) further notes, the minor parties, which are assumed that can wave their support to any of the popular candidates, will likely influence the voting patterns for unoccupied provinces such as Alberto (Nakhaie, 2006). On religion the analysts predicts most Christians to vote in favor of Liberal party as opposed to the Jews who are being currently wooed by the Conservative leader. The Christians as said to rebel against conservatives for supporting same sex married (Grenier, 2014).

Trends in Political Polling

Whenever it comes to political contest in Canada, regionalism always takes a center stage, and most will always agree that regionalism has never been a new phenomenon in Canada. From a very humble beginning, Canada came to realize a surge of numerous regional political parties, such as the Social Credit party, the Progressives as well as the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF); in the current Canadian dispensation, the significance of regionalism has its impacts on democracy and the party support structure (Nakhaie, 2006). Canada has scaled the ladder of multiparty politics since the mid of 1990s, an observation that has seen the advancement and sprouting of fresh political parties that have since changed the control of established and regular parties such as the Progressive Conservative and the Liberals political parties.

Several of these new political parties, according to Nakhaie (2006), are based around certain individuals or a particular region in a way that revolves around the interests of such individuals or regions. The Bloc Québécois, in this case is expected to fill aspirants mainly in the Quebec Province; the party will use Quebec patriotic vendetta as its fundamental policy floorboard. The Reform Party, in this case, is considered largely as allied to the western ideals that focus on subjects that embrace western alienation; the party will be searching for a voice at the ballot for western welfares in Canadian political structure.

Use social media and digital technologies best based on current practices

Based on the current trends of the Federal campaign, a blend of all social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Skype, and Flickr in addition to technology such as Cinematic will be used aggressively by various contenders. These are suggested to weigh heavily as they have on recent occasions been major campaign tools in the Quebec secession and Alberta’s provincial election. However, the youthful liberal party leader, Trudeau whom some of the political analysts already term “Obama of Canada” is likely to utilize that to his advantage to woo the youths votes. This is perceived so because he has already hired influential and youthful Cyrus reporter to lead his press team and to fine-tune their target and quality of the engagement with the public.

The contribution of social media and digital technologies

With the interactive technology, the Liberal leader Trudeau can pass a message to large number of audience quickly and get their response instantly. The use of social media can as well help Trudeau to broadcast his stand on diplomatic issues, which can then be publicized without his knowledge. In addition, he can use the negative critics from the responses to change for the better. This is expected to improve his nationwide outreach and popularity thereby influencing more votes.

Conclusion

From the forgoing analysis, it is apparent that the Liberals might return to power in the forthcoming Canadian federal elections. In the likely event that they pick on the former Prime Minister’s son, Pierre Trudeau to be the party’s flag bearer. The opinion polls too, seem to be sagging towards the possibility of a landslide victory for the party. Speculation is rife that Justin Trudeau would preferentially dislodge the conservatives from power although, this election victory is expected to slam him with another challenge, that is, contending with the minority in government.

Under Trudeau, the polls show that the Liberals would bag in 39% of the total vote, while 32% would go to the Conservatives and the New Democrats would record 20 percent in the highly contested 2015 federal elections. Accordingly, Justin Trudeau is seen to be perfecting on his position making him most relevant in the Canadian political contest, and is increasingly reaching out to other constituencies, which were initially perceived as being hostile to his candidature. At 41, Justin Trudeau seems well endowed with sufficient vitality and vision to paddle the course of the nation in the years to come.

References

Farney, J, & Levine, R. (2007). Canadian Voting Behavior in Comparative Perspective, The Comparative Turn: The Canadian Contribution to the Theory and Practice of Comparative Politics. Ed. Richard Simeon, Robert Vipond, Jennifer Wallner and Linda White. Vancouver: UBC Press. Web.

Grenier, E. (2014). 2015 Federal Election: For Harper, Trudeau and Mulcair, The Campaign Is Underway. Web.

Nakhaie, M. (2006). Electoral participation in municipal, provincial, and federal elections in Canada. Canadian Journal of Political Science. 39(2), 363-390. Web.

Pammett, H. & LeDuc, L. (2003). Explaining the Turnout Decline in Canadian Federal Elections: A New Survey of Non-Voters. Ottawa: Wiley and Sons. Web.

Tandt, M. D. (2014). For the first time since 1976, our Canada includes Quebec. Web.

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