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The Theory of Change
The Theory of Change is a way of describing a set of assumptions on the basis of which plans for moving towards a long-term goal are formed. An important first step in this process is to identify a feasible long-term goal and long-term results. All participants should understand and share long-term goals and have confidence that they are achievable. Participants then begin to draw up a simple map of the prerequisites needed to achieve a long-term goal. These prerequisites will be shown on the way to the desired long-term result. The mapping process helps stakeholders visualize and prioritize their goals, as well as indicate what they expect to change and what results they want to be responsible for.
After the first step, where a simple structure (tree) of changes is outlined, a more detailed stage of the mapping process begins. Now it is necessary to illustrate how long-term results are related to intermediate ones. The movement from the future to the present continues until a structure suitable for planning purposes is obtained. The process of outlining the prerequisites extends until all possible paths to the final change (goals) are determined (Hayes, 2022). It is called the “path of results” and represents a logical causal sequence between short-term, medium-term and long-term results.
Any initiative is as reliable as its foregone assumptions. Assumptions should clearly show why participants believe that the result will be achieved, which gives them confidence. Later, the details are added to the structure being developed. They focus on how to measure the implementation and effectiveness of initiatives through a set of indicators. An indicator is an actual measurable variable that has a minimum threshold for a successful result (Hayes, 2022). Some results are combined by levels, and a distinction is made between the results that the organization will track and reward and the results that cannot guarantee achievement. When the structure of the changes is presented visually with all the identified links between the prerequisites, the group should focus on interventions. Interventions are activities that will be implemented to bring about change. At this stage, the participants explain what they are going to do to achieve the desired results. The described actions are usually compiled in a separate numbered list.
The process of identifying prerequisites continues until all possible paths to the final change are identified. This process displays the logical flow between operational, intermediate and long-term results. Illustrating the connections helps to selectively test the logic of the initiative, as well as to determine where the initiative should intervene (Hayes, 2022). Following the logical path from the result to the proposed precondition often indicates inconsistencies. Theory of change participants can adjust their frameworks and discard or add results as needed.
Theory of change usually consists of a schematic representation and a narrative. The diagram is flexible and does not have a specific format — there could be cyclic processes, feedback loops, and other various forms. The output path in the theory of change is usually made in the form of text fields connected by arrows towards the final result. Simply drawing an arrow from one result to another does not mean that the next result will happen automatically. Thus, it is good practice to label compounds using color codes and other text to describe the relationship between each result.
Despite the fact that the theory has proven itself well for developing reliable initiatives in solving complex problems, its key advantage is not in setting goals and making plans. The joint activity of stakeholders helps to clarify some critical situations in the organization, to get clarity as to why everything works the way it does and not otherwise. Going from the expected results to the steps needed to achieve them, the theory is suitable for a number of goal-oriented hypothesis in all fields. An example of such an open hypothesis could be determining whether an increase in material stimuli would help to boost employees’ output, where the researcher would go from the actual increase in the output to the prerequisites responsible for this increase. Empirical implications of the theory include the inherent connection between prerequisites and the desired results that makes it imperative for a researcher to look for the reasons conducive to these or those actions.
A Preliminary Logic Model
According to the theory of change, the first step is to determine long-term goals. The long-term goal for this project is to evaluate how effective MBDA has been in implementing DEI practices. Secondly, it should be determined what is needed for this goal’s implementation. Obviously, to compare the effectiveness of MBDA after the adopted legislation, it is necessary to compare its results against previous years when it was governed by the executive branch of office. Thirdly, the diversity, equity and inclusion strategies to achieve the given results should be studied and the impact of the strategies on the overall result should be determined (Picture 1).
To make the comparison valid it should go along the lines defined by the president in adopting the new legislation for the MBDA. Thus, medium-term goals include: enhancing grant-making capacity of MBDA, the creation of the Parren J. Mitchel entrepreneurship education grants program, Creation of a council to advise the Under Secretary on supporting MBEs, and coordination of federal MBE programs (The Minority Business Development Agency is permanently authorized in bipartisan infrastructure deal). Firstly, to see whether putting MBDA under Congress increased its grant-making capacity, the number of grants and the amount of money given in grants should be assessed and compared to previous years. Secondly, it is necessary to evaluate how many educational grant programs were created and how many people received educational grants. Thirdly, the number of enterprises involved in federal programs should be assessed and compared against previous years. Finally, all the results should be gathered together to assess the overall effectiveness of MBDA work under Congress.
References
The Minority Business Development Agency is permanently authorized in bipartisan infrastructure deal, 2021, Web.
Hayes, J. (2022). The theory and practice of change management. Bloomsbury Publishing. Web.
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