The Security Dilemma in the International Realm

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Table of Contents

Security Dilemma and Game Theory
Security Dilemma
Palestinian and Israeli Conflict over West Bank and Gaza Strip
Findings
Policy Implications
Bibliography
Footnotes

Security Dilemma and Game Theory

A state’s strength and/or weakness in national security play an important role in the international realm especially in the said state’s relations with other states.

In his book, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Robert Jervis (1976) discussed that according to the the theory of security dilemma, a wealthy state which has the resources of having a strong military division can be seen as aggressive on the other hand, states with no military capabilities are considered as weak thus they are prone to be intimidates by stronger states.

Thus in international relations, the theory of security dilemma is crucial in the analysis and study of the balance of power which is affected by its players’ national security statuses.

In his essay Cooperation under the Security Dilemma Robert Jervis (1978) pointed out that actions undertaken by states for the improvement of their own national security such as the enhancement of their military strength through the creation of advance weaponry or the forming alliances with other states can lead to other states feeling threatened by such actions thus they will also do similar actions which eventually produce tensions among the states and will create conflict even when no one really want such outcome.

In his essay Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma John Herz (1950) best described security dilemma as “A structural notion in which the self-help attempts of states to look after their security needs tend, regardless of intention, to lead to rising insecurity for others as each interprets its own measures as defensive and measures of others as potentially threatening”.

Examining the theory of security dilemma, there are dependent and independent variables in this study. Let us supposed that attacking is our independent variable and victory is our dependent variable.

If one state, alpha, wages war and attacks another state, beta, the victory of alpha in conquering beta would depend on a number of factors namely, alpha’s military strength taking into consideration the population of trained soldiers in combat, advancement of machinery and lastly political and economic power standing in the international realm.

In order for alpha to attain victory it must also be stronger than beta with more powerful and wealthy allies for support. As seen in our study of different cases in international relations from World War I and II to the Cold War and security threats encountered by different nations, we are aware of the pressures that trigger states to act in the way they are.

Thus we will be considering a barometer to measure the pressure (high or low) on a state’s need for victory.

Going back to our example that state alpha initiated an attack against state beta, the pressure on state alpha to attain victory over its conflict with state beta is high because if it loses to state beta it would be proven wrong by state beta or state alpha’s assumptions of state beta’s intentions, aggression towards state alpha for example, would be proven accurate.

On the other hand, examining this hypothesis using the game theory a different idea is conceived. Game theory, as Roger Myerson describes in his book Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict (1991), is a mathematical method in calculating circumstances in the form of games where the success of one player leads to the failure of another.

In connection to international relations, game theory is “the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers.”

The United Nations serve as a venue for states to announce their intentions to other states, whether be in terms of their military force advancement or formation of alliance with other states, so as to avoid unnecessary tension and conflict among other players in the international realm. The limiting factor for the United Nations is that it can only be open to its member states which are mostly democratic in nature.

It is still a challenge until now to attain information from nondemocratic leaders. Examining our variables; attacking as our independent variable and victory as our dependent variable, in game theory a zero sum gain occurs.

An example is when one state attacks and achieves victory over the other the losing state loses everything to the winning state but if no attack was conducted by state alpha against state beta no victory may have occurred to state alpha. In game theory when an action of one is the lost of another but if no action took place, in this case an attack, no outcome would occur, victory.

Security Dilemma

In the theory of security dilemma the strength or weakness of a state and its actions towards the betterment of its national security is directly proportional to the actions of other states. This section will discuss how poverty creates pro-war political groups, how ambiguous threats create misperceptions among leaders and how institutions create peace by decreasing transaction costs.

Primarily poverty creates pro-war political groups in the national level of a state because citizens may tend to blame their sufferings from the prosperity of neighbouring states. The lack of resources whether be manpower, water, land and the like, of a state is attributed to the other state’s bountiful harvest. Conflicts with regards to boarders and territories may arise from pipelines of oils, water or islands.

The idea of prosperity may occur in the thoughts of activists that if the neighbouring state will be conquered, defeated and will be under the control of the suffering state problems of poverty will slowly diminish. The abundant resources enjoyed by the other state will be benefited by the conquering state. National securities of states are threatened when poverty occurs in the national level.

Political leaders will draft out ideas on how to eradicate such problems and may even point the blame to neighbouring countries. Second, ambiguous threats among states may create misperception among leaders. The advancement of facilities by a certain state in enhancing its own national security may lead to the other state’s actions towards its betterment of national security.

The creation of advance weaponry may create tensions among states breeding ambiguous threats and eventually leading to conflicts. Once states feel threatened, state leaders may tend to see other leaders as suspicious thus the trust that bounded them disappear, miscommunications happen and conflicts occur with displays of tanks, aircrafts and the like.

An example of this happening was during the Cold War when the Americans and Russian’s competed among each other their latest technologies and inventions. The Russians brought the first man on the moon threatening the Americans with their latest sciences. Tension was present not only in the continents of the two nations but around the globe where everybody feared of a war outbreak.

The anxiety of the two nations’ actions resulted into the planting of missiles in the Cuban nation where fear of war was at the bay. Both leaders no longer trusted each other as compared to their camaraderie during the World War II, suspicion was everywhere.

The Cold War did not only gave tensions of war but economies also suffered where the players in international relations took sides thus business transactions were strained and limited thus the idea of free flowing goods in the international market was tampered. Lastly, institutions create peace by decreasing transaction costs.

The creation of the United Nations led to the establishment of different institutions which help in the mobilization of goods and services all over the globe. Markets are created anywhere with low entry barrier with the deduction of tariffs for the easy penetration of foreign businesses. A nation is considered powerful with the presence of advance battle tanks, aircrafts and strategic close in protection plans.

Although the purpose of such for most states is for the protection of their own national security other leaders would assume that such is an act of aggression with the former displaying or practicing tacit diplomacy.

According to Carnes Lord in his essay The Psychological Dimension in National Strategy (1989), tacit or coercive diplomacy is a means of persuading a state through the threat of using force or actually using limited force to achieve political objectives.

Palestinian and Israeli Conflict over West Bank and Gaza Strip

Peace negotiations between the West Bank and Gaza Strip have been the subject of interest in the current Road Map for Peace proposed by the United States, Russia, European Union and the United Nations. In this Road Map, a separate Palestinian state is envisioned, cohabitating with Israel as neighbours.

The Road Map urges Palestinians to end all attacks on Israel and the latter must dismantle outposts but neither condition has been met since the acceptance of the said proposal thus final negotiations between the two conflicting states have neither began on major political differences.

Palestinians believe that the West Bank together with the Gaza Strip is a part of their sovereign nation and they see the presence of Israeli military control as a violation of their sovereign right.

According to the findings of the US Department of State conflicts of the sovereignty of these areas have been a target of heated arguments of the players where the UN considers them as Israeli-occupied territories while Israelites prefer the term disputed territories claiming part of the territory for themselves.

Examining this case with the theory of security dilemma, the presence of the Israeli army with their tanks, aircrafts and close-protection schemes threaten the Palestinian government and settlers in the conflicted areas. The attacks conducted by the Palestinians on the other hand is seen by the Israelis as acts of aggression thus constant conflicts occur in the areas of West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Although the sovereignty of the areas is questionable as of the moment but because of the constant display of arms by both parties tensions and conflicts are breed in the areas. Peace talks and major political decisions in ironing out differences among the states are difficult to attain.

Findings

The present Palestinian – Israeli conflict over the West Bank and Gaza Strip is a primary example of conflict conceived by miscommunication among leaders and tensions brought about by weapons and armies. The theory of security dilemma is best portrayed in the said conflict.

Primarily the territories have both questionable ownership to which they belong to but the reason why conflict occurred in the said areas was because of the tanks, aircraft and armies of the Israeli which main purpose was to protect its settlers while at the same time the act of the former led to the assumption of the Palestinians that such actions implied the attack of its own people in the areas of West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Continuous attacks and fighting led to the deaths and casualties of innocent civilians. Peace talks could not be resolves because of suspicions and mistrust among the leaders with each other. The continuous conflict between the two nations had bred pro-war political groups such as Fatah and Hamas which believes that the conflict is a matter of religious war.

Policy Implications

States’ non-aggressive moves to enhance their security are seen by others as threatening creating tension among states and eventually triggering counteracts that reduce security among states. The case of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over territories of West Bank and Gaza Strip clearly demonstrate the policy implications of the security dilemma.

To protect their own nations’ security both Palestinians and Israelis mobilized tanks, aircrafts and military troops in the areas of dispute of West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Such actions undertaken by both parties increased tension among them resulting to attacks between the two states which eventually lead to the economic deterioration of the two states, casualties and fatalities among civilians from both nations and mistrust and suspicion from political leaders making it extremely difficult to conclude peace talks.

Using the security dilemma theory, the policy implies that both states security enhancement intentions led to conflicts between states. To change the policy as a consequence an intervention by the United Nations or a third party organization should be a key focus in the resolution of conflict in the case of Palestine and Israel.

Since peace talks through The Road Map of Peace was established by the United Nations, United States of America, European Union and Russian in resolving the problem, the super powers should use tacit diplomacy on both Palestine and Israel to intimidate both nations to stop their attacks and fighting.

Threatened national securities from both states have been the problem of the two for centuries now but the threats come from each neighbouring state. When super powers threaten the fragile nations there may be a possibility that the latter be persuaded.

Bibliography

Herz, John. “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma” World Politics 2, no. 2 (1950): 171-201.

Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976.

Jervis, Robert. “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30, no. 2 (1978): 167–174.

Lord, Carnes. Political Warfare and Psychological Operations. Edited by Frank Barnett. Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989.

Myerson, Roger. Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict. Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1991.

“Israel and the Occupied Territories: International Religious Freedom Report 2007.” stategov. Web.

“Israel Security Assistance.” stategov. Web.

“Background Note: Jordan.” stategov. Web.

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