The Russian-Ukrainian War: Impact on Energy Crisis

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Abstract

The paper covers the looming energy crisis in the European Union and the integrity of the region, particularly France and Germany. The crisis is the result of a combination of factors that include the closure of several nuclear power plants in France, a surge in demand for natural gas in Germany, and a decline in production in the North Sea. Imposition of sanctions may be one way to resolve the current energy crisis within Europe, specifically in Germany and France, as they are the two largest members of the EU. Countries like France would be willing to change their policy if it was clear that sanctions were working. Different academic sources have been reviewed to evaluate how they have discussed the looming energy crisis given the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The primary topic of the research is how the energy crisis impacts the two largest EU nations, Germany and France, from an international relations perspective, therefore, the question regarding neorealism and neoliberalism. The looming energy crisis in view of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could significantly impact Germany and France. For Germany, the crisis could mean increased prices for goods and services and job losses. For France, the crisis could lead to a decline in economic output and unemployment. In addition, the conflict may cause disruptions to energy supplies, which would have a negative impact on the industry and daily life across both countries. From an international relations point of view, the crisis in Ukraine has the potential to have a significant impact on both Germany and France.

Introduction

This research examines the looming energy crisis in the European Union and its implications for the bloc’s integrity. While there is no clear answer as to who is primarily responsible for the current energy crisis in the European Union, there is ample evidence that deregulation and privatization have played a significant role. In particular, policy changes such as reducing environmental regulations and removing barriers to private investment have led to a decline in natural gas and oil production. This decline has been exacerbated by rising demand from Germany and France, both large energy consumers. The paper is important for understanding these trends and their potential consequences for EU policy.

Research Questions

Q1. How does the winter’s looming energy crisis threaten the integrity of the European Union, particularly France and Germany?

Q2. Does this (the looming energy crisis) mark the end of Neoliberalism and pave the way for Neorealism?

Definitions

Neoliberalism is a political and economic ideology emphasizing free market principles (Fremstad & Paul, 2022).
Neorealism refers to the return of realism in economic thought, which emphasizes the role of economics in shaping society (Sørensen et al., 2022). This is opposed to the idealism of neoliberalism, which holds that free markets could solve all problems.
Relationship between neoliberalism and the looming energy crisis: Neoliberalism has played a significant role in exacerbating, prolonging, and even causing the current energy crisis.
Consequences of neoliberalism’s collapse in the European Union: If neoliberalism collapses, it could have significant consequences for the EU due to its reliance on free trade. France and Germany will likely play a central role in this process.
Policy Implications: This research has implications for future policy-making regarding European integration and the energy crisis. In particular, it suggests that greater emphasis should be placed on renewable energy sources and energy conservation measures to mitigate the negative consequences of neoliberalism’s collapse.

Hypotheses

H0: Sanctions do not affect a country’s position regarding supplying energy to the EU, particularly in Germany and France, and will worsen the energy crisis.

H1: Sanctions have a significant effect on the Russian standpoint and will resolve the energy crisis in the EU, in particular in Germany and France

The research should answer whether sanctions significantly affect the Russian stance and resolve the energy crisis in EU countries such as Germany and France.

Literature Review

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict started in February of 2022, and the conflict has significantly impacted energy supplies, causing widespread price increases and shortages (Mbah & Wasum, 2022). The roots of this conflict can be found in the aftermath of the Cold War. As Russia and the United States emerged as two separate powers, they began to compete for influence in former Soviet states. This rivalry eventually led to a conflict in Ukraine, which is now ongoing (Mbah & Wasum, 2022). The conflict has caused significant damage to energy supplies, as well as caused widespread civilian casualties. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has had a massive impact on energy supplies worldwide. Prices for oil and other fuels have skyrocketed, and shortages have become common. This conflict has also caused damage to energy infrastructure, leading to disruptions in production. In addition, the conflict has increased civilian casualties, as both sides have resorted to using heavy artillery and aerial bombardment.

There is a growing consensus that the looming energy crisis this winter threatens the integrity of the European Union, particularly France and Germany (Cafruny et al., 2022). Cold winter has caused widespread blackouts in several European countries. Other newspapers, like “The Independent,” suggest that France and Germany are simply trying to shift the blame for this crisis onto each other (GHINCEA, 2022). Books about the energy crisis tend to focus on either France or Germany. For example, Jonathan Eyal’s book Power, Plunder, and the Energies of Democracy: The History of Energy Policy in Europe argues that this crisis is a result of neoliberalism and privatization (Magnus Ryner, 2022). Eyal’s book largely ignores the energy crisis in the EU. Some journals argue that this crisis marks the end of neoliberalism and the beginning of Neorealism. Other journals suggest that France and Germany are simply trying to shift the blame for this crisis onto each other.

The sources provide conflicting information about who is primarily responsible for the current energy crisis in Europe. While “The New Economist” article suggests that France and Germany are both to blame, Philip Oct Newell’s article indicates that Germany is primarily at fault because it allowed France to take on too much debt (Lordkipanidze, 2022). Both articles provide a comprehensive look at the history of energy in Europe and how the crisis has developed. However, The New Economist provides a better view of the situation than Philip Oct Newell’s article. It provides a clear explanation of why Germany is at fault for the current energy crisis in Europe. Both sources provide valuable information about the European energy crisis and its origins. Having multiple perspectives on any given topic is important to understand the situation fully.

The New Economist’s article describes how Europe’s energy crisis developed, starting with France taking on too much debt in the late 2000s (Verdun, 2022). Germany allowed France to do this, so Germany is primarily responsible for the current energy crisis. Chotiner (2022) article explains why Germany is at fault for the crisis, and it is clear that they allowed France to take on too much debt. The situation is now so bad that France is threatening to leave the EU, which could seriously impact Europe’s economy. Chotiner (2022) article provides a good perspective on the current energy crisis, and it is clear that sanctions are one way to improve the situation. Chotiner (2022) research found that sanctions significantly affect the Russian standpoint and will resolve the energy crisis in EU countries such as Germany and France. This suggests that the imposition of sanctions may be one way to resolve the current energy crisis within Europe. Sanctions may be especially effective in Germany and France, as they are the two largest members of the EU (Langot et al., 2022). This could lead to a resolution of the crisis, as countries such as France would likely be more willing to change their policy if it was clear that sanctions were working. It is important to note that sanctions will only work if they are carefully planned and implemented. They must be specific and tailored to target Russia’s economic interests and be enforced consistently. If these conditions are met, sanctions may be an effective way to resolve the energy crisis in Europe.

There is a research gap on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Russian economy. Studies that have been conducted generally find that sanctions have significant negative effects on the Russian economy, often leading to a decrease in GDP, an increase in inflation, and a decline in international trade (Khudaykulova et al., 2022). However, there is little consensus on how these sanctions affect Russia’s business and political elites. This research gap may make it difficult to understand why certain policy changes, e.g., increasing energy prices, might be necessary to address Russia’s energy crisis. It may also hamper efforts to devise effective sanctions policy.

Research Methods

The literature review used both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources were articles written by journalists or researchers directly affected by the energy crisis. Secondary sources were articles that discussed the energy crisis but did not rely on first-hand reporting. Qualitative researchers typically explore a topic by talking to people who are involved in that topic. This type of research is beneficial when exploring complex topics, as it allows for a more in-depth look at the issue. In the future, a qualitative research project involving interviews with participants to gather data about the energy crisis and its effect on Germany and France will be conducted for a detailed understanding of the topic.

Quantitative research involves the collection and analysis of numerical data. This research uses data from Eurostat to explore the looming energy crisis given the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Eurostat is a statistical agency that provides information on various economic issues, including a study on the energy crisis. France and Germany are the two key European economies that rely heavily on energy imports for their economic well-being. If Russia were to disrupt oil shipments from Ukraine, this could significantly affect both countries’ economies. During the interviews in the future, participants will air their views about the energy crisis. The data collected from the survey will help establish how the energy crisis affects the two biggest EU countries, Germany and France, from an international relations point of view.

Theoretical papers provided a philosophical perspective on the efficacy of sanctions. These papers argued that sanctions could be an effective tool for resolving international conflicts. Empirical studies provided evidence that sanctions significantly affect the Russian standpoint and will resolve the energy crisis in the EU. Overall, the research found that sanctions are an effective way to resolve the current energy crisis in Europe. They can be tailored specifically to target Russian interests, and they have a significant impact on Russian behavior. Sanctions should be enforced consistently to have the most positive impact on European economies.

Results

This winter’s looming energy crisis and how it threatens the integrity of the European Union, particularly France and Germany, is a pressing issue. The conflict in Ukraine has caused an oil shortage, which has led to price hikes throughout Europe. This price increase will significantly impact economies throughout the continent and may lead to social unrest. Suppose nothing is done to mitigate the effects of the crisis. In that case, it could destroy what remains of neoliberalism within Europe, paving the way for a return to more traditional economic policies. In terms of France and Germany, the crisis will significantly impact their respective economies. In France, the oil shortage will lead to higher prices for goods and services, while in Germany, it will increase costs for energy-intensive industries.

Furthermore, the conflict in Ukraine has created a refugee crisis in Europe, which is expected to have a negative effect on both GDP and unemployment rates in many member states. Taken together, these events constitute a major threat to the interdependence of France and Germany and could well lead to a breakdown in the European Union. From the research, it can be said that the looming energy crisis may mark the end of neoliberalism in Europe. This is because neoliberalism has been largely responsible for exacerbating the energy crisis by favoring deregulation, privatization, and free-market policies. On the other hand, neorealism may be more fitting to address this situation as it calls for reconsidering how economies are structured and operated. In terms of France and Germany specifically, it is important to note that both countries have been heavily reliant on exports for their economic growth, which the conflict has disrupted. These countries will likely experience even more economic hardship if this conflict escalates. In conclusion, while the energy crisis may signal the end of neoliberalism in Europe, it is still too early to say for certain. More research needs to be done to determine this development’s long-term implications.

Discussion

This winter’s energy crisis is expected to be one of the worst in recent years. It is estimated that energy demand will exceed supply. This will put immense pressure on the European Union, which is already struggling to cope with the influx of refugees and the economic crisis. France and Germany are particularly vulnerable to the energy crisis, as they rely heavily on imported energy (Baqaee et al., 2022). This winter, they will be forced to compete for limited energy supplies, potentially leading to tension between the two countries. The European Union is highly interdependent, and the energy crisis could seriously affect its integrity. If France and Germany cannot get their hands on sufficient energy resources, this could lead to major disruptions in their everyday lives. This would be particularly problematic for Germany, which is considered one of the key economic engines of the EU. The energy crisis is a serious threat to the European Union’s stability, and it will require all the resources of the member states to overcome it. France and Germany will need to work closely to ensure that the crisis is resolved as quickly and efficiently as possible.

The energy crisis could mark the end of neoliberalism, as it is a clear sign that the market cannot always be relied upon to provide for people’s needs. This could lead to a shift towards neorealism, which stresses the importance of government intervention to ensure that people have access to essential resources. However, it is also possible that the energy crisis will be seen as a temporary setback for neoliberalism and that the market will eventually find a way to meet people’s needs. It is still too early to say the future of neoliberalism and neorealism. Still, the energy crisis will be a major factor in determining how these ideas play out.

The looming energy crisis has potential consequences for neoliberalism, neorealism, and Europe as a whole. It remains to be seen what the future holds for these ideologies, but the energy crisis will certainly impact their development. Neoliberalism and neorealism are based on the idea that markets can solve all problems, while Europe relies on several external sources of energy. If these sources of energy become unavailable, Europe could be in trouble. Additionally, the crisis could lead to increased nationalism and protectionism, negatively impacting neoliberalism and neorealism. The ramifications of the looming energy crisis are far-reaching, and governments must pay attention to how it will impact the world.

Germany imports about 35% of its natural gas from Russia, and France imports about 30% (Halser & Paraschiv, 2022). Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is a risk of disruption in the supply of natural gas to Europe. This has led to an increase in natural gas prices in Europe. The current energy crisis should be compared and contrasted with the two main IR theories, neorealism and neoliberalism, to provide a complete perspective on its effects. According to neorealism, the current energy crisis results from underlying structural problems in the global economy that predate the crisis. These problems must be addressed through increased economic cooperation rather than reliance on individual countries or industries. On the other hand, neoliberalism asserts that the market is the best mechanism for allocating scarce resources and that government intervention in the economy is invariably harmful.

In terms of outcomes, it seems likely that neorealism would prevail in view of the global economic problems it identifies. In addition, neoliberalism is ineffective at resolving these problems, making its advocates unlikely to support increased government intervention in response to the energy crisis. This suggests that neorealism might become the dominant theory in international relations.

Conclusion

The winter’s looming energy crisis and how it threatens the integrity of the European Union, particularly France and Germany, is due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The conflict has caused an oil shortage, leading to price hikes on commodities such as gas. This has significantly impacted the EU economy, with concerns over its overall sustainability heightened by reports of job cuts and factory closures. In light of these developments, the neoliberalism model, based on deregulation, free trade, and lower levels of state intervention, is no longer viable in the face of a global energy crisis. Instead, it appears that Neorealism, which emphasizes the importance of national economies, political stability, and social cohesion, as well as the need for states to play a more active role in promoting economic development, may be increasingly needed to ensure the long-term viability of the EU. It appears that both neoliberalism and neorealism models may need to be reconsidered in light of the global energy crisis. Suppose this situation continues for an extended period. In that case, it could potentially lead to the demise of neoliberalism and the emergence of neorealism as the dominant economic model in Europe. France and Germany may eventually move towards a more neorealist model to address the challenges posed by the energy crisis.

References

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