The Global Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism From a United States Perspective

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Table of Contents

Introduction to Research and Research Proposal
Introduction
Methodology
Analysis
Summary and Recommendations
Reference List

Introduction to Research and Research Proposal

Research is an essential process in informing action, evidence collection for theories and contributing to the advancement of knowledge in a particular field of study (Alfakih, 2017). It is essential to understand the importance of research since it is crucial for any individual in a learning institution or a research organization. A research proposal is a structured write-up that provides information about a project that one proposes to execute as a section of the main study for a certain level of education (Kivunja, 2016).

The development of a research proposal is based on an identified research topic. It provides details of the aim and objectives and the research methodology used during the main study (Kivunjaa, 2016). The main purpose of a research proposal is to inform what one intends to research, the significance precisely, and the method applied in the study. A proposal also tells others about the ethical issues that might need consideration and the necessary resources to accomplish the task.

This research proposal will outline several sections that will be essential in the achievement of the main project’s research aim and objectives. The first section will introduce the topic of research and the research proposal. The introduction also identifies the aims and objectives of the proposal. The third subsection of the introduction shall include the introduction to the specific research topic on the effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry and the significance of the research. Chapter two discusses the theoretical and empirical results of the COVID-19 pandemic and the worldwide tourism sector from the past scholarly works. The methodology will form chapter 3, under which the description of the data collection method and analysis of results will occur. The last chapter is a summary and evaluation of the research proposal with the appropriate recommendations.

The Objectives of the Research Proposal

The main objective of this research proposal is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global tourism sector with an outlook on the United States tourism industry. The research focuses on all states and defines the challenges they experienced in tourism and the short-term and long-term strategies to combat the problems.

The following are the specific objectives of the research:

To determine the rate of and extent of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US
To assess the rate of change in travels based on cancellations, and government measures and policies
To identify the effect of the pandemic on various components of the tourism industry
To compare the revenue from the tourism sector before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction

COVID-19 pandemic has potentially resulted in severe damage to the economy from the disease outbreak. COVID-19, also referred to as SARS-CoV-2, is a new virus that injures the respiratory system. The novel coronavirus disease was first discovered in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, after which the outbreak significantly expanded globally. The worldwide spread made the World Health Organization [WHO] (2020) declare COVID-19 as a global pandemic on 11th March 2020. The disease has been fatal, with over ten million infections and over 1000000 deaths (WHO, 2020).

The virus spread worldwide, and daily cases increased in the United States, South East Asia, and Africa, which prompted the governments to take measures such as movement limitations, curfews, and travel prohibitions to tackle the spread of the pandemic. The second wave of the pandemic causing more damage than the first phase, and as such, states have closed their borders to tourists. International tourism and domestic tourism of most states have therefore become more problematic than in other economic sectors.

Significance of the Research

When the COVID-19 disease erupted, travel restrictions were the first measure to contain the spread. Closure of borders and cancellation of flights had a negative impact on tourism. Similarly, after the pandemic, tourism might be the last to recover, and hence there is the need to investigate the pandemic’s effect on the sector. Tourism is among the leading contributors to the economic progress of different countries. Tourism is one of the vital industries in the global economy, which accounted for the highest contribution by sector by US$2.9 trillion to GDP in 2019 (Gamage et al., 2018). The tourism sector recorded 1.4 billion international tourist arrivals worldwide, making the highest contribution to the economies of both developing and developed countries, and is currently becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors globally.

The travel and tourism sector is one of the sectors that has experienced a significant effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tourism sector has faced large-scale impacts due to the health and economic crisis resulting from the pandemic. The industry has lost approximately 1.1 billion international tourist arrivals with a US$ 910 billion loss and US$ 1.1 trillion export revenues, corresponding to between 100 and 120 million job losses due to the extensive spread of the pandemic (International Monetary Fund [IMF], 2020).

The research would be significant since it would give the United States and other global states an overview of the direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector. The analysis of the trend in the number of travels and cancellations based on government regulations would be essential to the managers and customers for efficient decision making. Organizations can also utilize the study findings in strategic planning on intervention measures of the adverse effects of the current pandemic’s effect and potential future impacts. Literature Review

Theoretical and Empirical Literature

The literature review section discusses the theoretical and empirical results of the COVID-19 pandemic and the worldwide tourism sector. The tourism sector is one of the vital economic sectors that has experienced more difficulties due to the pandemic, yet the industry is significant in the economic development of a country like the United States. Therefore, the damaging effects of the pandemic may have an ultimate risk in the economic growth of a state.

The unique travel ideas of the prospective travelers form one of the decisive factors in their travel resolution. There are several potential travel destinations in today’s tourism, and as such, the tourists choose destinations depending on the view of feeling secure and safe at the termini of interest. Tourism is a system that has a high level of interlinkages with the environment and hence interacts with various elements of the external world. Environmental factors such as technology, sociocultural, political, economic, and ecological aspects interact with tourism and make the sector susceptible to any alterations in the environmental parameters.

The risk of epidemic and pandemic spreading is the most vital risk aspect of a medical crisis. The intensely spreading infections interact aggressively with the international tourism sector, through which tourism can enhance the spread of epidemics globally due to high movement. On the other hand, the outbreak of an epidemic can, in turn, influence tourism. Such a cycle was evident in 2003 during the SAS epidemic after an explosion in one province in China.

The virus was transferred to Hong Kong through the human body as a host from where the spread continued from the hotel to other parts like Canada, Singapore, Taiwan, and other nations. After the infection of 8000 people globally, the WHO issued a travel warning on various Asian destinations and North America to limit SARS’s spread and a decline in tourism. The Chinese GDP declined by 25%, while Hong Kong and Singapore experienced a 40% decline in GDP from the previous standards (IMF, 2020). Therefore, medical risks such as pandemics have a severe disastrous effect on international tourism.

Several scholarly works in the past have considered the significant impact of the tourism industry on economic development. The World Trade Organization believes tourism one of the vital driving forces for economic growth, with benefits such as creating a high foreign exchange, employment opportunities, and increased revenue for a nation. According to Gamage et al. (2018), tourism is the fastest-growing sector in developed and developing countries, along with being the leading source of job opportunities and high revenue creation for an economy.

The COVID-19 pandemic is more likely to affect the travel and tourism industry (Shretta, 2020). The worldwide tourism sector contributes to about 10% of the global GDP and 30% of the world’s export services (World Bank, 2020). Government measures to restrict travel, airport shutdowns, and mass passenger cancellations have made the tourism sector the principal sector affecting economic growth during the pandemic period.

As such, the tourism industry has lost over US$ 820 billion in income worldwide due to the effect of the pandemic. Governments have also established different policies such as the “stay at home” and social distancing, including booking cancellations which have resulted in over US$150 billion loss globally. For instance, Nepal (2020) indicates that the Chinese tourism sector has experienced postponement of most tourist visits due to the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting the industry.

Previous scholarly works have identified the impacts of epidemics and pandemics in the past few decades and centuries on the economy and the tourism sector. The past outbreaks such as H1N1 influenza, SARS, HIV, AIDS, Zika, and Ebola virus had comparatively less effect on the industry than the COVID-19 pandemic occurrence in 2020 (Gössling, Scott, and Hall, 2020). Despite the SARS epidemic influencing global air travel for six months, the COVID-19 pandemic caused more severe damage. The effect of COVID-19 has a more severe influence on economic sectors such as tourism than the previous pandemics.

International tourist arrivals have continued to decline, with forecasts showing a potential drop of up to 30% in 2020 due to the progressive spread of the disease. The decline rate is more than the global financial effect of the SARS epidemic by over ten times (Shretta, 2020). Therefore, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have precarious damage to international tourism than the past global pandemics and disease waves.

The United States reported its first COVID-19 case on 20th January 2020, after which the pandemic started to have uncertain economic and social effects in February and March. The US hotels began to lose large revenues, and by the start of June 2020, 60% of hotel rooms remained empty across the United States (Patel and Kulkarni, 2020). On the other hand, the situation worsened in August, and almost 50% of the employees in the hotel industry were out of work, with the booking rates lower by 50% (Davahli et al., 2020). Vital international responses to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic since the first report has included travel restrictions, shelter-in-place, and social distancing instructions.

Most states worldwide imposed a partial or total border cessation, with travel bans impacting most of the people. The sudden loss of jobs, unpredictability of economic rescue, and the threat of the continued global spread of the pandemic greatly affected the hospitality sector (Uğur and Akbıyık, 2020). The tourism and hospitality industry remains to be the worst affected in the initial period of the pandemic and is likely to be the last sector to face recovery after the end of the disease.

The available studies on the effect of COVID-19 on the world’s economic growth have insufficient data, and hence, future studies will have less information for discussion. Numerous studies show the negative influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on economic growth to be negative. Only a few studies on the effect of the pandemic on the development of economies have considered an examination of the negative impact of the disease outbreak on the global tourism industry (Shretta, 2020; and Uğur and Akbıyık, 2020). Therefore, the existing literature is significant to the research of coronavirus’s effect on the tourism sector, an essential industry for both advanced and developing nations.

Information Gap

The existing literature is essential in the research proposal of the impact of coronavirus disease on the global tourism industry and the US perspective. The above literature works containing theoretical and empirical findings on COVID-19 and the tourism sector will help develop the primary research argument. The COVID-19 pandemic is currently the most severe economic shock that has affected every state in the world. The pandemic has caused financial losses in one year, with global tourism facing the most vulnerable state due to regulations such as travel restrictions, social distancing, and quarantine measures from most governments.

The tourism sector is, as such, the industry that has faced the most severe negative impacts of the pandemic due to the uncertainty in economic astonishments in different countries. The research proposal intends to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the tourism industry and determine strategies to address the challenges for the sector’s sustainability amidst the pandemic.

Methodology

Data Collection

This study will employ a data mining procedure to collect data on the prevalence and effects of the coronavirus 2019 disease pandemic on the tourism industry of the United States. The actual words (coronavirus, COVID, and coronavirus) will be determined to compile a dataset for the research. The process will involve recording all comments and cases consisting of the above keywords on TripAdvisor forums which shall be essential for text mining. This recording procedure shall employ an exceptionally created API to retrieve comments on the TripAdvisor forums.

*Figure 1: Text mining procedure flow. (Uğur and Akbıyık, 2020).*

Text mining is an acceptable type of data mining technique and involves extracting hidden information from textual data. This process can be defined as a partial understanding of natural language texts, visualization editions in the information design, and generating implications within the context of the information mined from the text. The following figure 1 represents the flow of the text mining process that shall be applicable.

The process is iterative, involving analyzes that can be repetitive with modifications to obtain efficient outcomes. The text mining process will begin with collecting a textual data set by obtaining structured and semi-structured texts from sources like web pages, social media, and consumer compliments. The organized text shall then be divided into small units using natural language processing functions before reducing the various types of terms around word roots or original forms.

The texts will then undergo text filtering, which shall involve cyclic iteration. The process shall filter out words that have no connection with the subject under study, which will be repeated using new measures depending on the feedback concerning challenges and observations that would potentially be faced. The data transformation stage is the third phase that would give the filtered text a structured outlook by weighing the words in the text formed depending on their collective usage and the manifestation rate in cases. A term-by-document matrix shall then be developed in which rows will contain all the words in the text set while the columns shall hold the documents (issues).

The final step will be topic extraction that shall involve determining the topics and contents within the range of information mining. This phase shall have a grouping of phrases and words based on their distance from each other and the likelihood of manifestation.

Analysis

Link analysis will be appropriate based on the strength and availability of one or more attachments between two or more phrases or words. The classification of documents and terms will depend on their categories or titles, which will be significant in the class predictions of new inputs. The process will be repeated using the findings and images from the final stage to text filtering as feedback before moving to the transformation stages.

Summary and Recommendations

The research proposal aims to show the decisions and reactions of particular tourism actors and tourists of the pandemic listed occurrences. The research proposal implies that the main study needs to reveal the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global tourism. Specifically, the United States tourism sector uses the comments of travelers and travel agencies. The study will examine the international leading travel platform forums, such as TripAdvisor, during the pandemic.

The research proposal has covered four main sections; the introduction, the literature review, the methodology, and the summary section. The introduction describes several concepts of the relationship between tourism and medical risks, such as pandemics. The unit also highlights the origin and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the various governments’ various strategies to contain the space.

The literature review chapter discusses the scholarly work in the past related to pandemics and their corresponding effects. The shows how previous studies reveal the impact of past pandemics such as SARS on the tourism sector, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic. The literature review section is significant in the research proposal since it has helped identify gaps in the existing studies on COVID-19 and its effects on the world’s tourism industry and particularly the United States. The methodology chapter describes the proposed research design and procedure for data collection during the main study. Therefore, the sections of the research proposal shall effectively help understand the concept of the study and the intended research process during the complete research project.

Reference List

Alfakih, A.H. (2017) ‘A Training program to enhance postgraduate students’ research skills in preparing a research proposal in the field of curriculum and instruction methods of Arabic language,’ Online Submission, 7(3), pp.1-6.

Davahli, M.R. et al. (2020) ‘The hospitality industry in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: current topics and research methods’, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(20), p.7366.

Gamage, H.R.H., Gamage, S.K.N. and Gasimli, O. (2018) ‘Socio-economic factors affecting attitudes of local people on cultural and eco-tourism development in Central Province in Sri Lanka,’ Rajarata University of Sri Lanka.

Gössling, S., Scott, D. and Hall, C.M. (2020) ‘Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19’, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 29(1), pp.1-20.

International Monetary Fund (2020) World economic outlook: chapter 1: the great lockdown. Web.

Kivunja, C. (2016) ‘How to write an effective research proposal for higher degree research in higher education: lessons from practice,’ International Journal of Higher Education, 5(2), pp.163-172.

Nepal, S. K. (2020) ‘Adventure travel and tourism after COVID-19–business as usual or opportunity to reset?’, Tourism Geographies, 22(3), pp.646-650.

Patel, J. and Kulkarni, V. (2020) ‘Covid-19: issues faced by hospitality industry’, Dego Rangsang Research Journal, 10(6), pp.28-32.

Shretta, R. (2020) ‘The economic impact of COVID-19’, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford: Oxford, UK.

Uğur, N.G. and Akbıyık, A. (2020) ‘Impacts of COVID-19 on global tourism industry: a cross-regional comparison’, Tourism Management Perspectives, 36, p.100744.

World Health Organization (2020) Coronavirus (COVID-19). Web.

World Bank (2020) World Bank predicts sharpest decline of remittances in recent history. Web.

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