The Dangers of Korean Unification

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The division of Korea took place in 1945 and particular claims on unification appeared only in the 2000s. Some people are quite optimistic about the process of unification. For instance, Gregory (2013) notes that it can happen in the nearest future and it will be rather unexpected for everybody. The researcher compares this process with the fall of the USSR and reunification of the two Germanys. At the same time, some argue that it will not happen in the foreseeable future and the process will be painful for people of both Koreas (Branigan, 2013). It is difficult to predict the future of the peninsula but it is possible to estimate probability of this event as well as issues associated with the process of unification.

Some note that North and South Korea have been separated for too long and they have become two different countries (see fig. 1). At the same time, researchers claim that unification of the two Germanys as well as the fall of the Soviet Union suggests that such divisions are artificial and short-lived (Gregory, 2013). Cronin (2011) also notes that dictators’ rule often ends abruptly and the experience of Egypt shows that the regime in North Korea can also fall at any moment.

However, it does not follow that if or when the regime in North Korea falls, unification of the two Koreas is inevitable. Thus, Branigan (2013) stresses that at least one party is not that eager to reunite. According to the recent research, only 49% of people (in their twenties) in South Korea are eager to unite with North Korea while, in 1994, 92% of South Koreans believed that unification was important (Branigan, 2013). Therefore, the probability of the unification of the Koreas is not very strong and the chances of unification or development of the two very different countries are equal.

As for issues associated with unification, it is possible to single out at least two major concerns. In the first place, economic policies of the two countries are very different or rather opposing. Centralized economy of North Korea is incompatible with capitalistic model of South Korea. It is noteworthy that South Koreans note that unification will be associated with significant economic losses as their country will have to help develop stagnating economy of North Koreans to recover (Branigan, 2013). Apart from that, South Koreans note that the systems of education are very different in the two countries, and it will be difficult for people to unite after all those years as cultures of South and North Korea developed differently.

Fig. 1. Map of North and South Korea.

In conclusion, it is possible to note that the unification of South and North Korea is possible but it is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. This can be due to certain issues associated with it. Thus, the economic, political and cultural development of the two countries has been very different. South Korea has adopted the western model while North Korea is developing in accordance with principles of the communist ideology. This has already led to the shift in the public opinion and young South Koreans (in their twenties) are reluctant to start the process of unification, as they do not see the future of the united Korea. This shift completes the vicious circle and makes unification highly unlikely.