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When evaluating the probability of me receiving an A in this class, I can state that I will rely on subjective interpretation of such probability. Thus, such probability will be 70%. Such probability is based on my personal belief, which in turn might be influenced by several subjective factors such as my knowledge of my preparation on such subject, my previous grades in other classes, and other subjective factors. Using those factors I might compare such probability with I believe that the rest of the students will come to use the same probability assessment method as well as the factors that will determine such probability. The latter can be explained by the fact that such an event as taking a particular is unlikely to be repeated. Thus, there are no actual empirical data on such subject as the success of students. Accordingly, the inclusion of personal factors provides individual uncertainty which can be only subjectively estimated. It is common to use a subjective interpretation of probability in cases that cannot be empirically tested, which are not be repeated, and/or which are not feasible to investigate and test. It can be stated that most everyday activities that require assessment might use such subjective interpretations.
An example of such everyday activities can be seen through estimating the probability of being on time to work, estimating the probability of the movie is good, etc. All of these estimations although might have a certain frequency, it is not feasible to be calculated, and thus, I can estimate the probability based on subjective interpretations, using such factors as my personal experience and knowledge, e.g. the way I go to work, other movies by the same actors, etc. I plan to use subjective interpretation in the future, where there might be more significant cases in which subjective probability might come in handy such as evaluating my chances of having a particular job position, or during the decision-making process.
It should be noted that subjective probability is not limited in its use on personal and individual decisions taken every day. Subjective probability can be taken in business decisions as well, with examples showing decisions made based on subjective estimations. For example, the decision of Apple to enter the mobile phone market can be seen as the result of subjective probability of success. The company did not have experience in manufacturing phones, and could not expect such demand for their product when they announced, considering the criticism that the company faced in several aspects (West & Mace, 2007).
A more recent example can be seen through the way Sony will deal with the recent break of the security of its console PlayStation 3, and the result of the litigation suit she filed against the hackers who did it. The success of the litigation can be an example of a subjective interpretation and probability, which nevertheless, might be used by the company in making their decision on the future of their product (Digital Foundry, 2011a, 2011b). Thus, it can be concluded that despite the subjective nature of estimation, such an approach is widely used, as not everything can be tested to make a decision.
References
Digital Foundry. (2011a). Hackers leave PS3 security in tatters. Eurogamer. Web.
Digital Foundry. (2011b). Sony to Geohot: See you in court.Eurogamer. Web.
West, J., & Mace, M. (2007). APPROPRIABILITY, PROXIMITY, ROUTINES AND INNOVATION. DRUID Summer Conference 2007. Web.
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