Predictive Modeling Fundamentals and Decision Trees

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Table of Contents

Introduction
Predictive Modeling and Decision Trees
Conclusion
Works Cited

Introduction

Predictive modeling is a significant tool that can be used in various spheres, such as science, medicine, programming, as well as in daily life. It aims to forecast outcomes or responses based on existing data. This paper presents the information on this concept and discusses training datasets and validation datasets, as well as decision trees. It concludes that decision tree predictive modeling is an effective algorithm that allows individuals to make deliberate choices.

Predictive Modeling and Decision Trees

Training datasets are those used for the calibration of a predictive model and outlining the links between its features and a specific response (Larson 32). It can be illustrated by the example of a model that predicts the costs of health care. In this case, clinical conditions, the history of the utilization of particular services, and the general costs of interventions are used as features, while responses are the data used to observe the desired outcomes. Validation datasets are those that provide the assessment of a training model used to make predictions. For predictive modeling, training datasets are based on the existing information on the issue and validation datasets are utilized to eliminate possible bias and errors. These algorithms use current records and variables to predict possible outcomes in the future.

The decision tree is one of the algorithms used for predictive modeling. It provides a graphical representation of possible outcomes of a scenario based on specific conditions (Jha). The decision tree is a simple classification tool that works in the following way. This algorithm divides the data into small segments and uses it to predict outcomes. The choice of the decision tree depends on the expected results. For example, to predict quantitative data, such as an individual’s income in the following year, it is necessary to use a regression tree (Grisanti). On the contrary, a classification tree should be utilized to predict a patient’s diagnosis based on vital signs and symptoms as there is a limited number of possible results. It is necessary to mention that to predict an outcome or a response, it is first necessary to test and adjust the tree as it may show biased results due to the inaccuracy of the data. Then, when errors are eliminated, this tool can be used for making predictions.

Decision tree predictive modeling can be used in my daily life in various ways for simple and complex decisions. For example, I can use it to predict what grades I will receive during a test based on my performance in the past. Moreover, this tool can be used for my social life, such as planning a birthday celebration with family and deciding whom to invite to it. For instance, with predictive modeling, I can forecast individuals’ responses to my invitation based on their decisions in the past, as well as their age or gender. In my opinion, decision tree predictive modeling is most useful for academic research but can be utilized for regular decisions as well.

Conclusion

Decision tree predictive modeling uses the concepts of training datasets and validation datasets to forecast outcomes based on presented variables. There are several types of this algorithm designed for different expected results. Decision tree predictive modeling is an effective tool that can be utilized for making choices regarding regular situations, such as birthday celebrations, as well as more complex ones that are used in scientific works.

Works Cited

Grisanti, Julie. “Decision Trees: An Overview.” Aunalytics, 2019. Web.

Jha, Vishakha. “Decision Tree Algorithm for a Predictive Model.” TechLeer, 2017, Web.

Larson, Anders. Creating a Useful Training Data Set for Predictive Modeling. 2016, Web.

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Predictive Modeling Fundamentals and Decision Trees

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