Game Theory Applied to the Russo-Ukrainian War

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The observation of contemporary geopolitical situations and history via the framework provided by economic theories provides a new perspective on the issues of politics. Game theory allows an easy interpretation of the situation within the borders of Ukraine and Russia. The theory reviews the situation from the perspective of economic incentives and what kind of actions could be taken to achieve the desired outcome. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, using the game theory, it was established that the invasion revolved around Western Reaction. In addition, by establishing the desired outcomes for the two, it is possible to review the likelihood of other decisions. Therefore, Russian incentive to retain Ukraine as a close ally outside of NATO. Simultaneously, NATO wants Ukraine to retain self-determination without guaranteeing its security via admission to NATO. If the West and Russia pursue a zero-sum game, nobody will prevail, and Ukraine’s security will remain ambiguous. The framework provides an insight into the situation and regards the situation as a natural course of action aimed to benefit Russia.

The framework considers incentives as an essential part of the consideration of decisions. However, it does not necessarily provide a logical explanation that allows making an assumption for the specificity of such incentives. In consideration of the Russia-Ukraine review, it is possible that the incentive lies in the unwillingness of Russia to give up its ally. However, some point out that the reason for the Russian invasion is purely related to the aggressive expansion of Slavic ambitions and Putin’s personal agenda toward Ukraine. There is no reason to deny both assumptions, but it is necessary to consider how to choose the most fitting forecast.

Nevertheless, my horizons were broadened by the approach as it led to the evaluation of the implementation of nuclear weapons in the ongoing conflict. This evaluation followed the principle that considered the implementation of such weapons of mass destruction as a negative consequence for both sides. However, Russia may benefit from the exclusive usage of the weapon. Although alternatively, I would have approached the subject from the perspective of political science and the principle of a deterrent that allows justifying the supposed unwillingness to use nuclear weapons.

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