Energy Sector in 2050: Potential Scenario

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Table of Contents

Scenario 1: Evolution of Gas
Demand for Hydrogen Gas Based on the Scenario
Assessment of Merits and Demerits of Scenario 1
Estimated Costs Involved in Scenario 1
Technological Feasibility of Scenario 1
Summary
References

Scenario 1: Evolution of Gas

In this potential scenario, the balance in the consumption of gas as a source of fuel for commercial and residential customers is the same in 2050 as the current use in 2018. The global community is heavily relying on gas for heating and cooking. However, the use of hydrogen as an alternative gas is at its peak. This means that the gas network is converted to the hydrogen fuel power. Most public transport vehicles are using hydrogen fuel cells. For example, in a cold day in 2050, with low temperatures of between -10c and -5c, a young accountant wakes up in her house, which relies 100% on hydrogen gas for heating, lights, and water boiler. The lady runs a bath and places a kettle on the hydrogen gas cooker. After breakfast, she takes a hydrogen fuel cell-powered bus to work. Despite the extremly low temperatures, her office has a hydrogen-powered floor heating system.

Scenario Assumptions

The scenario assumption is that by 2050, hydrogen gas usage for residential and commercial purposes will account for 47% of all energy sources. Moreover, hydrogen consumption for transport purposes will peak at 60% of all energy sources. However, the percentages are likely to vary from one region to another. These scenario assumptions are summarized in table 1 below.

Table 1: Scenario of hydrogen usage in transport and commercial/residential categories.

Use category	Natural Gas	Hydrogen	Electricity
Residential and commercial	16%	47%	35%
Transport (rail and road)	18%	60%	22%

Specific Area of Interest: Heating Fuel

In scenario 1, there is a general steady shift from one region to another across the globe towards acceptance of hydrogen technology due to its abundance and efficiency. The assumption is that at least 70% of all energy costs will be directed towards hydrogen gas for commercial and residential use. Due to a technological paradigm shift, there is a new system called the Regional Transmission Line that transports the natural gas into an extractor, which separates hydrogen gas from methane (Beer, 2013). The hydrogen gas is then distributed through a special pipeline for residential and commercial usage. At the same time, the 2018 Natural Grid Distribution network has been expanded to distribute any surplus hydrogen gas to other regions and the same trend is adopted across the globe (Hillebrand & Closson, 2015). More sources of hydrogen gas are being pumped into the grid to meet the rising demand as a strategy for reducing the cost of carbon emission during hydrogen extraction from natural gas. Among the notable new sources include electrolysis and nuclear energy.

Possible Networks

In this scenario, the regional and national gas grids gain dominance in supplying heating energy. The grids have been transformed from a simple system to a complex and highly intelligence network that is accommodative of different sources of hydrogen gas. The world energy leaders have just approved a Real Time Network that is computerized and covers almost 10,000 kilometers per hydrogen distribution pipeline. This system in 2050 is seven times more efficient than the 2018 natural gas pipelines. Private bio-methane suppliers are also licensed to connect to the national and regional grids to serve regions that are not covered by the main gas line.

Appliances of the End Users

In the 2050 scenario, most of the 2018 gas heating appliances have all been converted or replaced to function on hydrogen gas. Since there is no extension of the gas grid network, the general assumption is that about 10% of rural customers are still served by the current natural gas pipeline and cannot be connected to the hydrogen grid.

Demand for Hydrogen Gas Based on the Scenario

As described in scenario 1, the fuel mix as a fraction of overall energy demand was estimated (see figure 1).

Figure 1: Comparison of hydrogen usage in 2018 and 2050.

On the basis of scenario one, the regional carbon emissions were estimated by 2050 (see table 2). The estimations were based on the dominance of clean hydrogen energy usage by 2050 as compared to the same in 2018, as a factor of the other sources of energy.

Table 2. 2050 carbon emissions based on scenario 1.

Emissions	M_tCO_2e
Allowance of regional total CO₂emission by 2050	113
Total CO₂generated beyond the mythical region of analysis	47
Total CO₂from rail and road transport	16
Total CO₂from electricity and industry generation using gas power	24
Total CO₂from heating	16
The remaining allowance from CO₂emission	0

Assessment of Merits and Demerits of Scenario 1

The merits and demerits of applying scenario 1 were examined and summarized in table 3 below.

Merits	Demerits
The capital cost of energy is relatively low	Hydrogen heating still emits carbon
The existing pipeline and other assets are still used	Hydrogen usage is still limited in mass heating and transport
Low space use in residential homes	Challenge of convincing the public that hydrogen gas is safe
Life more efficient due to the effectiveness of the hydrogen powered appliances	Usage of hydrogen from methane conversion still needs a large storage for CO₂emitted
Reduced pressure on generation of green power

Estimated Costs Involved in Scenario 1

In order to make scenario 1 a reality, the cost implication will range from $104 billion to $122 billion. Considering the potential returns, scenario one is a low cost project since it will use the 2018 gas networks. Moreover, there will be a relatively minor variance in outlay of commodity as the costing will be actively driven by hydrogen gas requirements for commercial and private uses (Beer, 2013). However, the construction of a steam methane converter will be a major investment since it is capital intensive in terms of the network and research investment. Interestingly, very little investment will go into household conversion since the 2018 gas network can be applied in 2050 with minor adjustments (Hillebrand & Closson, 2015). Based on these assessments, the estimated cost breakdown for successful transformation of scenario one into a reality is summarized in table 4 below.

Variables	Estimated Costs ($ billions)
Commodities incremental costs	21	21
Electricity Networks	Nil	Nil
Gas Grid Network	43	52
Household Transformation and Adaption	40	49
Total	104	122

Technological Feasibility of Scenario 1

At present, that is 2018, methane gas has been tested as a reliable source of energy. However, extraction of hydrogen from this source and other sources such as nuclear energy and electrolysis at the mass market level is still a dream. This means that a lot of research should be done to establish the feasibility of hydrogen conversion and mass usage (Krammer, 2013). Moreover, the global community must think of the best strategies for capturing excess carbon as a result of the conversion process.

Another matter is the ability of the 2018 gas networks to deliver hydrogen energy to meet the peak demand. At present, the natural gas networks meet the current energy peak demand. This means that simple adjustments could make them more responsive and flexible for the 2050 intelligent distribution grid. For instance, the current Real Times Network could be adjusted to meet this need by 2050. It is difficult to predict the level of customer acceptance of scenario 1 since it will require complete replacement of the current natural gas appliances and adjustments in space to accommodate the hydrogen boilers (Hillebrand & Closson, 2015). However, it is projected that the transition process will be smooth and relatively shorter as was the case in the 1970s when the global community quickly adjusted and embraced the natural gas.

Lastly, it is important to examine the ‘finaceability’ of scenario one from the customer perspective. For instance, customers will have to replace appliances and probably pay for the hydrogen boilers. Although this conversion could be taken over by a conglomerate of private organizations or government institutions, the customers are still likely to settle the bill (Beer, 2013). Moreover, it will not be easy to persuade consumers to embrace a hydrogen powered mode of transport due to safety and other potential concerns.

Summary

The analysis suggests that scenario one is possible by 2050 with proper research and substantial investments at local and regional levels. The merits of hydrogen conversion and usage outweigh the potential demerits. However, it will require strategic partnerships across regions to make the project feasible.

References

Beer, J. (2013). Potential for industrial energy-efficiency improvement in the long term. New York, NY: Springer Science & Business Media.

Hillebrand, E., & Closson, S. (2015). Energy, economic growth, and geopolitical futures: Eight long-range scenarios. Cambridge, Ma: MIT Press.

Krammer, S. (2013). How to analyze and compare scenarios? Evaluation of scenarios dealing with the future of our energy system: DESERTEC, EU-Roadmap 2050, Greenpeace [R]evolution, world energy outlook & Shell energy scenarios. London, UK: Anchor Academic Publishing.

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