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Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis
When speaking about structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis, one is to think about common perceptual and cognitive biases which impact on mental processes. There is a need to point out that the so-called perceptual biases give us an opportunity to expect something.
Such expectations seem to be rather strong and difficult to change even if some certain facts are presented. Biases in evaluating evidence are mostly associated with some reliable data, which are used to make certain conclusions. Biases in estimating probabilities give people an opportunity to recall certain events or to predict something. Biases in perceiving causality give us an opportunity to avoid certain errors.
Generally, these biases as well as techniques (diagnostic techniques, contrarian techniques and imaginative thinking techniques) help people avoid certain rigid ways of thinking.
Taking into account contemporary situations in politics, one can state that the listed types of biases always take place. For instance, the current president of the USA was sure that he didn’t fail the elections. “Many Harvard experts have predicted that today’s presidential election will bring a certain victory for Barack Obama” (Jain, 2008).
So, perceptual biases took place. On the other hand, when speaking about the scientists who predicted war in various parts of the Earth, one can make a conclusion that biases in evaluating evidence as well as diagnostic techniques were used to make certain conclusions.
Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis
Generally, intelligence analysis cycle includes numerous processes, namely raw data distribution, processed data dissemination, analysis product dissemination, intelligence products dissemination, questions and issues, and resource-tasking collection management. All the processes consist of numerous sub processes, which help solve a problem.
In my opinion, new analytical challenges can be used to develop new strategies or approaches towards complex issues. Thus, there are not only experts who can help gather or analyze evidence, but also individuals who can find numerous sources of data.
Of course, intelligence analysis depends upon numerous criteria; however, the most important ones are considered to be the skills and level of knowledge of people who perform the analysis (in most cases, these people are the experts or the analysts). For some kinds of tasks, it is extremely important to possess special skills and knowledge. There are certain levels of the analysis, which require the use of various analytical skills. Numerous analytical tools seem also to be rather important in intelligence analysis.
When talking about modern situations in politics, one is to keep in mind that analytical analysis takes place when there are certain opportunities in political risk. On the other hand, the country determines its foreign policy on the basis of various analytical data. “Different analytical techniques employing event data have been used in a variety of different studies in foreign policy analysis” (Schrodt, 1993).
Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
When speaking about critical thinking and intelligence analysis, one is to keep in mind that to think critically doesn’t mean to think negatively. In other words, critical thinking is an ability to analyze the advantages and disadvantages concerning the subject of discussion. An ability to think critically means that a person understands the major points of the theme he or she is talking about.
They say that critical thinking impacts on analytical process quality. One of the most important advantages of critical thinking is an ability to reshape some unreliable methods the analysts rely on.
Critical thinking provides political leaders with an opportunity to appraise various political situations and take right decisions. “Regional, and national government offices, who call for political leaders to account for their actions, and who are ready to challenge the legitimacy of existing policies and political structures are critical thinkers” (Brookfield, 1987).
Reference List
Brookfield, Stephen D. 1987. Developing Critical Thinkers: Challenging Adults to Explore Alternative Ways of Thinking and Acting. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Jain, Niharika S. Pundits Predict Obama Victory. The Harvard Crimson. (November, 4, 2008), https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2008/11/4/pundits-predict-obama-victory-many-harvard/ .
Schrodt, Philip. 1993. Events Data in Foreign Policy Analysis. New York: Prentice Hall.
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