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Community hazard analysis is essential for mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery planning. In the process of creating a disaster program analysis, this reflective paper identify and characterize disasters, evaluate each on frequency and magnitude scale, and estimate overall risk.
Besides, the paper determines potential, direct, and indirect social and economic costs, effects, acceptable risk level, and identifies appropriate risk reduction opportunities in the city of Georgia. Besides, the treatise measures these hazards on the risk assessment model and classifies each in its quadrant on the facets of probability (Haddow, Bullock, & Coppola, 2011).
To begin assessment, emergency management planning reviews major anthropogenic and natural hazards frequent within the boundaries of Georgia City. Reflectively, it is important to note that hazards such as earthquakes uniformly affect an expansive region and the response may be generalized.
However, hazards such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, winter storms, Urban Interface fires, pandemic flu and Terrorism affect the city of Georgia in particular. In the region of East Coast cities, storms caused by tornadoes accompanied by thunderstorms pose greatest challenge on disaster mitigation. These tornados wreak havoc and cause death in hundreds. In 2009, 68 tornadoes hit Georgia and cost 35 million dollars in damages. Besides, floods and severe thunder led to power outages as secondary effects.
East Coast cities experience earthquakes of lower magnitude. These quakes and tremors occur periodically few times in a year and originate from the fault line of Mexico. Actually, cities located in East side experience minute crustal earthquakes. Despite low frequency in occurrence, earthquakes have large potential impacts.
The risk of pandemic flu especially bird flu was declared pandemic in 2009. Same as volcanic Hazards, pandemic flu is of little inventory on infrastructure and well being. Urban Interface fires pose minimal risk to the city of Georgia apart from the southern part since there is no dense forest or grassland surrounding it.
Thus, risk is negligible and of minimal inventory. In addition, Transport System and Utility disruption hazards are frequent due to impact of natural hazards such as winter storms, tornados and anthropogenic factors.
These disruptions pose major challenges on operations within and without the city. Besides, Hazmat Incidents such as harmful material releases by human beings affect construction, drainage, and transport corridors and contribute a good percentage of rail and road accidents. Potentially, this city is prone to effects of hazmat incidents (Pine, 2008).
Just like in any other developed city, terrorism threat poses an immediate and high magnitude challenge to Georgians. These threats include malevolent actions deliberately triggered to inflict casualties and damage property.
Besides, terrorism intimidates or coerces political or behavioral changes which are bad for business and socialization as reported in 1995, 2001, 2005, and 2011. However, magnitude of risk is dependent on severity frequency, infrastructure vulnerability, and threat to existence of humanity (Haddow, Bullock, & Coppola, 2011).
Evaluation of risks posed by these hazards is dependent of several factors interacting simultaneously at macro and micro level to create unfavorable conditions for life, investment, and movement. These effects include potential casualties, economic losses, and infrastructure damages.
However, there is variance in magnitude of threat created by each hazard. The higher the frequency and magnitude of threat, the higher the ranking on probability of occurrence sequence. Hazards such as tornados, severe thunderstorms, and winter storms are common and are frequent. However, major earthquakes occur over a long period of time but with high consequences than the low risk hazards (Haddow, Bullock, & Coppola, 2011).
Thus, evaluation adopts relative risk analysis which approximates risk level each disaster pose. Indicated below is a refined mitigation plan which summarizes the level of relative risk for each hazard. Notably, qualitative and quantitative judgment techniques are used to rank magnitude and intensity of Hazards in terms short, mid, and long term loses and damages recorded annually in Georgia.
From the generated table, it is apparent that hazards falling in quadrant A don’t occur frequently. Besides, impacts caused by these disasters are low as probability of occurrence is minimal. In Georgia, earthquake, terrorism, and wild fires are predicted to occur at low probability and create low impact.
Reflectively, the impacts of their occurrence are high but within minimal probability. Tornadoes, thunderstorms, and disruption of utility and transportation system hazards occupy the third quadrant C and D. Due to high density of the population in Georgia City, tornadoes, thunder, and distraction of electric, water, and transport systems are predicted to occur more frequently with great impact.
Hazmat incidences are human error disasters which have high impact on occur very frequently especially in an urban settlement. In the city of Georgia, it is apparent that natural hazards are frequent in occurrence. For instance, in the last four years tornadoes and severe thunderbolt have displaced half a million people and cause death of hundreds.
Economically, estimated damage for each aftermath of a tornado is estimate at thirty five million dollars. From this analysis, emergency response in Georgia City should be directed towards preparedness against natural hazards. The above data is vita in decision science and resource allocation towards disaster management preparedness.
Each hazard is assigned to a quadrant with predetermined response strategies and ‘follow-ups’ upon implementation. In this case, threat of earthquakes and epidemic flu attract minimal attention as the frequency of their occurrence is minimal and overall impacts low. Therefore, minimal resources and preparedness should be allocated to this quadrant. However, attention and preparedness increases from quadrant A towards quadrant D.
Hazards in quadrant B and C attract moderate attention since their occurrence are predictable but have generally low impact on lives Georgians. Specifically, special attention is directed towards hazards which occur in quadrant D due to high frequency of occurrence and relatively massive impact created by each episode of occurrence.
Therefore, city planners and disaster managers should divert attention to natural disasters since their occurrence is consistent and are accompanied by massive impacts on social and economic aspects of life. Specifically, special attention is directed towards response to impact of tornado and thunderbolts on housing, transport, and electricity supply.
Notably, winter storms, and tornados accompanied by thunderbolt descended upon Georgia in Worth and Mitchell counties and killed 120 people. Besides, more than 200 people were injured and dozens of homes destroyed. However, moderate effort should accompany planning in mitigating threat of terrorism (Pine, 2008).
The magnitude of estimated risk varies from one hazard to another. Factually, aftermaths of natural disasters are likely to affect more that 40% of the city population who cannot afford tornado proof housing. Therefore resources should be preserved and directed towards addressing the impacts of these disasters especially on coping and survival technique.
Lives lost annually from these natural hazards are on the rise besides serious economic loss. In mitigating a response strategy, attention is directed towards marking of hot spots and erecting weather tracking devises to give alerts for early evacuation and preparedness in response.
However, the authority is aware of the fact that natural disaster cannot be prevented and efforts are directed towards counter response after impact. This opportunity cost of evacuation has been construction of safe havens and response centers where victims are given first aid and other necessities.
There are several risk reductions opportunities available for addressing natural hazards predicted in Georgia City and secondary aftermath. Among the identified opportunities include partnership with the locals in awareness campaigns on survival and understanding natural disasters.
Besides, additional safety and first aid centers have been constructed as hiding point and supplies delivery locations for disaster stricken population. Moreover, cooperation with the media has proven instrumental in creating awareness on magnitude and effects of tornadoes on economic, social, and health sectors in order to prepare Georgians psychologically for unprecedented losses. Also, the city conducts risk assessment studies especially for relevant mitigation approach development for the seven disasters identified (Pine, 2008).
Conclusively, emergency management planning reviews major anthropogenic and natural hazards within the boundaries of occurrence predictability and magnitude of impact. Generally, hazards such as floods, storms, Urban Interface fires, Disruption of Transport and Utility Systems, and Hazmat Incidents occur frequently. Disaster preparedness depend on systems and policies laid down to address their impacts.
Reference List
Haddow, G., Bullock, J., & Coppola, D. (2011). Introduction to emergency management. Burlington: Elsevier, Inc.
Pine, John. (2008). Natural hazards analysis: reducing the impact of disasters. Michigan: Auerbach Publications.
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