Risk assessment helps to identify hazards. It is a process that contributes to identifying what could happen if a hazard is to occur. It also leads to establishing the solution mechanisms.
Risk and Vulnerable Areas
In my community, there is a hospital that has fewer bed capacities than it can hold. It is serving a whole county as a referral hospital (Risk Assessment, 2016). The county has a population of 270,000 people. Its bed capacity is only 300 beds. It creates a vulnerable challenge where when there is an outbreak of diseases, the hospital cannot cater to all its dependents.
Another risk is the electricity problem. There is a faulty connection of electric cables across the neighborhood. Every time it rains some sparks and smoke coming from the wires. It may lead to electric shock shortly. It is a high-risk problem because it can cause death.
The primary school in the community is across the river. Students have to cross the river to reach the school. There have been floods in the recent past, and this has left the bridge in bad shape. It has some cracks, and this may pose a danger to the students or any person using the bridge. It is a high-risk issue because the bridge may succumb to the weight on it or water can carry it away. It can lead to hurts or even death to the users (Risk Assessment, 2016).
Environmental Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
The community is yet to assess to establish the mechanisms for solving the problem. The information about risk assessment is in the Risk Management and Hazard offices in the government building. The officers are responsible for carrying out risk assessments and providing solutions. They need to work with accountable government ministries so that the solution can be tangible and acted upon in time.
Risk and Vulnerability Prevention Plan
The government has encouraged society to set up a community policing program. The program has security measures. It includes members of the society to protect the community. It also has a risk department which helps to ascertain the veracity of the dangers in the community (Risk Assessment, 2016). The risk arm of the policing office has various compartments. One deals with the natural causes of the disaster. They include floods, earthquakes, and weather-related causes. The second arm deals with the human-made causes. It includes the construction effects, accidents, and intentional hazards. The third division deals with technological risks.
Minimizing Threat and Vulnerability
The community plays a critical role in the management of the affairs of their locality. They can help to reduce risk and vulnerability by assigning each other functions in the administration of risks. The community has people who have various capabilities and time to manage the risks. After identifying these traits, they can distribute roles basing them on each others capacity (Risk Assessment, 2016). They should hold regular meetings that review the previous matters and consider any arising challenges in the community.
I can help minimize the risks and vulnerability by presenting the issues to the delegated committee. Then I can assist in the finding of solutions through research. I can also participate in writing to the responsible officials in the government and call upon them to act on the impending challenges (Risk Assessment, 2016). I can also raise the matter through the county legislature.
Risks occur in the daily life of every individual and community. The best thing to do is to find the mechanisms through which we can forecast their occurrence. The next step is to try and find control measures.
Due to the advance in technology, it is possible to move cargo through various modes of transport within a short period. This requires enhanced security measures because a load can be targeted by criminals. Companies invest heavily in ensuring that they have initiated the right measures for security (Kubanova, & Kubasakova, 2020). Cargo security planning involves analyzing the risks and creating solutions that minimize the challenges during the movement of goods.
Discussion
In both road and air transport, the first aspect is to carry out vulnerability and risk assessment tests. This allows the logistics company to identify areas where the transportation of cargo can be affected by external forces. The risk analysis is followed by the development of solutions that assist the company to minimize or eliminate the dangers. The report provides the team with an overview of hotspots that needs extra attention. The hijacking of goods is more common in road transport than in the air (Kubanova & Kubasakova, 2020). For air transport, the cargo has to undergo various processes that ensure the safety of those transporting the goods. This indicates that each mode of transport requires strategies that address the challenges presented.
For the transportation of cargo using ships, the security planning follows the Ship Security Plan (SSP). This document provides the crew with the measures to take when protecting cargo, cargo transport units, and stores (Lu & Koufteros, 2019). Rail transport is used to transport bulk cargo and special goods that cannot be handled by other modes of transport. Cargo security planning for rail is based on a security management plan. The plan is tested to ascertain its effectiveness and to ensure that all issues have been incorporated. The step that follows next is the introduction of security best practices at different levels. This may include the use of technology to ensure that cargo is theft-proof (Lu & Koufteros, 2019). Logistic businesses must operate with minimal security issues because of the nature of their work.
Conclusion
In summary, cargo security planning starts with carrying out risk and vulnerability assessments. The planning identifies areas that need attention and challenges that the logistics team may encounter. The adoption of security best practices ensures that companies minimize transport disruptions. Technology allows logistic companies to track the movement of freight and cargo, which helps in reacting when an issue develops. Clients will prefer an organization that guarantees the security of its cargo.
Risk assessment helps to identify hazards. It is a process that contributes to identifying what could happen if a hazard is to occur. It also leads to establishing the solution mechanisms.
Risk and Vulnerable Areas
In my community, there is a hospital that has fewer bed capacities than it can hold. It is serving a whole county as a referral hospital (Risk Assessment, 2016). The county has a population of 270,000 people. Its bed capacity is only 300 beds. It creates a vulnerable challenge where when there is an outbreak of diseases, the hospital cannot cater to all its dependents.
Another risk is the electricity problem. There is a faulty connection of electric cables across the neighborhood. Every time it rains some sparks and smoke coming from the wires. It may lead to electric shock shortly. It is a high-risk problem because it can cause death.
The primary school in the community is across the river. Students have to cross the river to reach the school. There have been floods in the recent past, and this has left the bridge in bad shape. It has some cracks, and this may pose a danger to the students or any person using the bridge. It is a high-risk issue because the bridge may succumb to the weight on it or water can carry it away. It can lead to hurts or even death to the users (Risk Assessment, 2016).
Environmental Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
The community is yet to assess to establish the mechanisms for solving the problem. The information about risk assessment is in the Risk Management and Hazard offices in the government building. The officers are responsible for carrying out risk assessments and providing solutions. They need to work with accountable government ministries so that the solution can be tangible and acted upon in time.
Risk and Vulnerability Prevention Plan
The government has encouraged society to set up a community policing program. The program has security measures. It includes members of the society to protect the community. It also has a risk department which helps to ascertain the veracity of the dangers in the community (Risk Assessment, 2016). The risk arm of the policing office has various compartments. One deals with the natural causes of the disaster. They include floods, earthquakes, and weather-related causes. The second arm deals with the human-made causes. It includes the construction effects, accidents, and intentional hazards. The third division deals with technological risks.
Minimizing Threat and Vulnerability
The community plays a critical role in the management of the affairs of their locality. They can help to reduce risk and vulnerability by assigning each other functions in the administration of risks. The community has people who have various capabilities and time to manage the risks. After identifying these traits, they can distribute roles basing them on each others capacity (Risk Assessment, 2016). They should hold regular meetings that review the previous matters and consider any arising challenges in the community.
I can help minimize the risks and vulnerability by presenting the issues to the delegated committee. Then I can assist in the finding of solutions through research. I can also participate in writing to the responsible officials in the government and call upon them to act on the impending challenges (Risk Assessment, 2016). I can also raise the matter through the county legislature.
Risks occur in the daily life of every individual and community. The best thing to do is to find the mechanisms through which we can forecast their occurrence. The next step is to try and find control measures.
House fires can occur due to many different causes, such as gas explosions or negligent handling of electric tools. Open fire sources such as cigarettes and candles are particularly dangerous because people sometimes fail to recognise their danger. Houses can be challenging to escape during a fire, which will often force firefighters to go in to save the residents. There are particular indoors fire behaviours such as flashovers and backdrafts, which can inflict severe damage on a firefighter who has to go near the flame.
These dangers supplement more mundane hazards such as smoke and its obstruction of visibility, which can lead to tripping. With that said, all of these dangers can potentially be addressed to some degree with specific training and equipment. As such, this risk assessment attempts to identify and evaluate all of the dangers present, then propose control measures.
Aim & Objectives
The purpose of the report is to highlight the dangers involved in indoors fire fighting and propose methods for alleviating them. It focuses on houses because they are somewhat frequent environments for fires to start. They are also more likely to have people and animals who have to be rescued inside compared to industrial facilities, which are often easier to evacuate. As such, the objectives of the report are to identify general fire-related dangers as well as those specific to houses and compare them to each other to understand their severity.
It will then propose solutions that can address most of these issues effectively and realistically. To do so, it will draw on the authors practical knowledge as well as literature. As such, the report will be separated into three distinct categories, with a dedicated conclusion for the risks section.
General Dangers
Contact with fire is extremely dangerous due to the heat involved in it, which can lead to severe and potentially fatal burns with even short exposure periods. Moreover, as it heats the air around it, people can be hurt by staying near a fire for extended periods. Clothing increases the danger of contact because many varieties will catch on fire upon contact, further harming the person who cannot take it off in time.
However, firefighter uniforms are already designed with the intent of minimising potential contact with flames and being fireproof without sacrificing too much mobility. Members of the profession should still be wary and understand the dangers of fire, however, as the equipment does not make them immune to it. Overall, this hazard is a moderate one in terms of danger, as firefighters can typically withstand short-term contact without being harmed.
However, fire introduces the danger of smoke, which, while not particularly damaging to inanimate objects, is extremely dangerous to humans. Smoke can get into most locations due to its gas-like consistency and move considerable distances away from the open flame. It is also dangerous to inhale, and continued exposure can lead to asphyxiation. As with flame, firefighters have specialised equipment that lets them filter the air they breathe.
However, these tools do not operate perfectly, and firefighters can develop conditions such as asthma over time. However, they are still at risk, especially when trying to rescue a person without a protective mask. The person can lose consciousness, becoming an additional burden and forcing the worker to act fast to prevent their death. Overall, the various combined risks make smoke a severe hazard that should be minimised through whatever means are available.
House-Specific Dangers
Houses are confined spaces, often with somewhat narrow corridors and door frames as well as cramped room layouts. As a result, they can increase the dangers of a fire by creating an increased concentration of smoke and blocking pathways with fire. They also tend to be filled with flammable materials, such as wood and cloth, in both their construction and furniture. Often, fire can damage a houses infrastructure and cause a part of it, such as a ceiling beam, to collapse.
Such events can be lethal if they occur while a person is in the danger zone, but they represent danger by further complicating the houses layout in any case. Lastly, houses closed-off nature can mean that lighting issues occur, causing people not to recognise that they are inhaling smoke until it is too late. Overall, the risks created by the house environment are severe and highly life-threatening.
Confined space also creates some unusual fire behaviours that supply additional dangers for firefighters. Flashovers are fires that spread extremely fast as a result of the temperature around them surpassing the autoignition level.
Backdrafts are situations when opening a door leads to a blast of fire coming out of it and likely hitting the person who performed the act. Both of these events can create sudden and severe danger for the person with the potential of immediately causing severe harm despite protective equipment. Additionally, flashovers can suddenly close previously open paths and leave the person without an escape route, exposing them to further danger. These phenomena can occur with little to no warning, surprising the firefighter and giving them no time to react. As such, their low preventability and extreme danger warrant a designation of the risk as severe.
The combination of fires tendency to collapse flammable structures and smokes ability to obscure vision can create numerous tripping hazards in a house. Falling over is always dangerous due to the risk of trauma, particularly if the surface on which one lands is uneven. However, flames introduce several additional dangers that increase the overall risk. If a firefighter trips into a fire, they can sustain severe burns before they can get away.
Moreover, they can tip some other object over, potentially complicating the situation further. Even if the worker lands on a safe surface, their mask can crack, which can lead them to inhale smoke at a high rate and succumb to its effects. With that said, the possibility of tripping and its effects can be minimised through appropriate conduct, so the overall danger of this aspect should be moderate.
Electrocution is the final risk that will be discussed in this assessment, being one of the more obscure but also potentially deadly dangers. Fires can damage electrical infrastructure, which usually tends to disable it via events such as short-circuiting. However, sometimes, the damage can create an exposure that can electrocute an unsuspecting firefighter. The presence of electricity is often impossible to observe with the naked eye.
As such, the event can catch the worker unprepared and potentially be fatal. Electric fires are a particular cause of concern, particularly when the rescuers do not know what event started the flame. They are made worse by many conventional methods of handling fire, which can backfire on the firefighter. However, due to the rarity of such situations and the existence of electric fire management methods, the danger of electricity warrants a moderate rating.
Conclusion
Fire fighting is an extremely dangerous task in most circumstances, but its dangers are made worse in the highly flammable and confined environment of a house. Many dangers that emerge in such a situation can cause immediate and severe harm to the person. Moreover, the general long-term hazards of fire and smoke still apply and are made worse by the higher concentration. With that said, firefighters still have to go in and get into close contact with fire to rescue people. The case with open or industrial fires may be different, with them being able to address the issue from a safe distance. In general, house fires can be considered one of the most dangerous categories for workers. As such, all possible precautions should be taken to minimise the risks to which they are exposed.
Recommendations
To deal with the general dangers of fire, workers should wear extensive protective equipment and be well-trained in its use. They should have specialised portable tools that can address the most frequent hazards during a house fire, such as a hand axe.
When rescuing someone, they should take some basic help tools, such as a rudimentary filter mask, with them. Firefighters should know the general ways of stopping the spread of fire and minimising the concentration of smoke and apply them in practice. It will usually not be possible to do that alone, so excellent communication and coordination between team members are necessary. If someone gets hurt, the rest should follow an established and standardised rescue protocol. These instructions should help reduce the general dangers of fire while remaining applicable to house fires, specifically.
With that said, residences have many unusual and potentially unique factors that can surprise and disorient a rescue worker. As such, they should train for these particular environments and their unique hazards. The International Association of Fire Chiefs (2020) suggests applying ventilation to minimise the risks of flashovers and backdrafts, with transitional fire attacks being potentially effective solutions.
Concerning visibility and falls, firefighters should be trained to identify and avoid dangerous areas unless strictly necessary. Lastly, to avoid electrocution, they should wear insulated equipment and receive training to identify whether electricity is on in the house.
Reference List
International Association of Fire Chiefs (2020) Fundamentals of fire fighter skills and hazardous materials response. 4th edn. Burlington, MA: Jones & Bartlett.
Governance is the software which enables the operation of urban hardware and must be designed to avoid devastating consequences to population and infrastructure from disaster risk. This report is a risk assessment analysis provided for the Qatar Civil Defence Department that is meant to identify hazards from local and external environments and evaluate service provision by the ministry. Identifying threats is a key aspect to mitigating them and directing appropriate responses as well as preliminary community engagement that ensures protection and preparedness of the population.
Scope
According to the United Nations Development Programme, risk governance or management is how public authorities, civil servants, and civil society coordinate at national and regional levels to manage and reduce disaster and climate-related risks. This includes identification, assessment, management, and communication of risks and how relevant information is collected, analyzed, and decision-making is made ( The Arab Cities Resilience ). Furthermore, risk management ensures that proper mechanisms are in place and institutions have the available capacity and resources to prevent, prepare, manage, and recover from disasters.
The scope of this report will identify entities and frameworks for disaster response. Then, utilizing the 5WH methodology, various disaster threats and responses will be analyzed including fire, natural disaster, hazardous materials, and how emergency services manage these risks. These are believed to be the most prevalent and consistent risks from the perspective of internal civil defense. The strategic objectives and preparation of Integrated Risk Management Plans (IRMP) will be discussed.
Framework
The General Directorate of Civil Defence as it is currently known is a department under the State of Qatar Ministry of Interior. It consists of operations, prevention, procurement, and administrative affairs departments. Its primary functions are to implement rules of civil defense as well as creating and executing plans for civil defense procedures with relevant ministries, members, and community stakeholders. The department focuses on internal security on providing firefighting, rescue operations, ambulance, and civil defense activities and services. This can range from direct responses during disasters to security coverage, training, simulations and evacuations, and evaluation of engineering safety and hazardous materials ( General Directorate of Civil Defence ).
In 2006, Qatar introduced the National Command Center (NCC) for a coordinated response to local and national emergencies. Equipped with the latest technologies and capacities, the NCC can use real-time information to direct responses. The NCC uses a technology known as the Unified Geospatial Infrastructure (NJM) a web0based geographic security system that hosts all relevant geographic and tabular data in a geodatabase.
The NCC is responsible for the entire emergency workflow beginning with receiving calls to tracking location, and dispatching the necessary response using its data on critical infrastructure, location of hazardous materials, and availability of response vehicles. The NCC united the services of the Emergency Service Centre, the Ministry of Interior (Civil Defence), Internal Security Forces, and the Hamad Medical Corporation which operates ambulances (Ebrahim & Osama).
In 2017, Qatar issued the Doha Declaration on disaster response which updates the national strategy on disaster risk management. It aligns with Qatars Sustainable Development Strategy, the Arab Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (ASDRR), and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction introduced by the United Nations. These promote international and regional collaboration and communication as well as the utilization of scientific input and technology. The Sendai Framework which the Civil Defence department uses focuses on 4 priorities:
Understanding disaster risk all dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure, and hazard characteristics;
Strengthening disaster risk governance coherence of national and local frameworks, laws, and regulations as well as clearly defined roles and responsibilities;
Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience using structural and non-structural measures to enhance the resilience of communities and their assets, including but not limited to innovation and growth as well as instruments to save lives and infrastructure;
Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response ensuring capacity for effective response and recovery. The recovery process and risk reduction measures should be prepared and publicly shared ahead of time to ensure effective response ( Chart of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction ).
Analysis
Fire
The biggest disaster risk for Qatar is universally considered to be fired, particularly in urban areas. In the last decade, the number of fires continues to increase in Qatar, with the latest available statistic placing the number of fire accidents at 1,922, almost 300 more than the year before. The majority of fires occur in urban buildings and vehicles ( The Arab Cities Resilience ). It is the crucial preventive function of the Civil Defence Department to issue licenses to commercial, industrial, and general infrastructure which ensures building fire safety.
In 2006, the Civil Defence Department implemented what has known as the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) specifications for buildings, ranging from offices to luxury hotels and airports. In recent years, the regulations and their enforcement have become increasingly stringent. Civil Defence engages in periodic community outreach, for both private homes and businesses, spreading awareness about fire incidents and safety measures. Educating the public and conducting drills alongside providing direct access to firefighters, which are rarely seen outside responses is a vital community empowerment tool welcomed by the population (Mohamed).
Natural Disasters
Qatar is generally considered to be one of the safest countries on the planet regarding natural disaster probability, highly unlikely to be affected by earthquakes, storms, or flooding. However, due to rapidly changing global climate conditions, Qatar has an established Permanent Emergency Committee (PEC) that is responsible for disaster management. There is a National Plan for Emergency which details contingency plans. Periodic drills occur, overseen by the Civil Defence department to ensure the readiness of the state. There is also a regional observatory under the General Authority of Civil Aviation Administration which monitors earthquakes and natural disaster threats.
The PEC produced practical tools for the Ministry of Interior to implement for natural disaster preparedness where crisis plans are focused on tackling more potential scenarios such as the sea-level rise and surge storms. Risk mitigation activities recommended are creating or improving infrastructure to be more resilient, including disaster response plans into the school curriculum, conducting scenario drills, and improving urban infrastructure such as water drainage to reduce risk (Qatar Government).
Hazardous Materials
This risk is significant for Qatar particularly due to its developed industries in oil and natural gas with several large facilities. The Civil Defence department has recognized and focused on this risk by creating guidelines for handling, transportation, and storage of hazardous substances. All locations with hazardous materials are tracked in a database while the ministry is aware of any potential contaminants or threats to public health that such locations may pose. Furthermore, the Civil Defence department has implemented a specific program at its Ras Laffan Emergency and Safety College (RLESC) in partnership with Qatar Petroleum focusing on training advanced safety professionals for the petrochemical industry ( The Arab Cities Resilience ).
Strategic Management
Qatar Civil Defence attempts to use strategic management by establishing a framework that combines the government agencies alongside private entities. The organization adopts an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework that initially seeks to identify and assess threats. Based on these assessments, activities are enacted which meet strategic, operational, and compliance objectives. The rationale is established at each level to ensure good risk management and governance. Control assurances are utilized at various levels of risk governance and management, beginning with the NCC to the greater national strategy. Reviewing, updating, and communicating the risk management strategy and policy allows engaging an efficient and effective framework.
Whilst no information was found regarding Qatars approach to creating and implementing Integrated Risk Management Plans, it is deduced that these are enveloped in the general strategic framework discussed earlier. There is an increased emphasis on working with other parties and agencies to develop a working mechanism in providing a safe environment under international standards.
There is also an emphasis on prevention which is achieved with integrated systems of security as well as innovative licensing systems. According to Nasser Al-Taweel, the adviser to the Minister of Finance, the Civil Defence department is seeking to improve its risk governance based on four measures of time, cost, procedures, and quality. Currently, quality is the indicator that needs the most improvement and the Ministry is doing its best to reform the system and develop modifications to existing civil defense services ( Civil Defence to ensure highest standards of security and safety ).
Conclusion
Last year, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs noted that Qatar values sustainable development as part of its National Vision 2030. This includes preparation and response to natural and man-made disasters as a strong effort to preserve efforts in national development (Nabeela). This report presented various frameworks and strategic initiatives undertaken by Qatar and the General Directorate for Civil Defence.
While significant progress has been made in risk governance and preparedness, several tasks and challenges need to be addressed. However, existing systems are showing extraordinary promise in the identification, mitigation, prevention, and response to risks and disasters. Risk governance in the Kingdom of Qatar remains efficient, unified under the Civil Defense department, and technologically advanced.
Recommendations
The first recommendation is to improve response to disasters by ensuring proactive plans and coordination among agencies. Second, infrastructure needs to be strengthened, including greater regulation of fire safety and inspection. Finally, it is necessary to empower and work with local communities, improving the roles of women and youth as well as addressing the challenges of poverty.
These social concepts ensure unity and collaboration by building partnerships that limit risks and enhance potential responses to crises at the local level. It is optimal that Qatar achieves full disaster preparedness and has a well-developed, flexible, and constantly updated framework of risk management well ahead of its 2030 Vision objective. As new risks and threats may emerge, changes should be made in accordance.
Considering the importance of this topic, which the government recognizes in leadership with the Civil Defence ministry, costs may accumulate into hundreds of millions of riyal, particularly when it comes to updating infrastructure. However, funding for such projects and the Civil Defence department has only been increasing in light of international agreements and Qatars public dedication to risk governance both locally and in the region.
Works Cited
Chart of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Web.
Hong Kong is one of the unique administrative regions of China that operates independently as a country since 1997, following the agreement between the region and mainland China to function as one country, two systems (Albert, 2019). The government of the Peoples Republic of China granted the region autonomy for self-governance in all sectors except defence and foreign affairs. Consequently, Hong Kong has the freedom to carry out executive, judicial, and economic functions until 2047 (Chiu, 2018). The leader of the Hong Kong government is the Chief Executive, who can be impeached by the Legislative Council. The Chief Executive appoints the judges who serve in the Judiciary (Albert, 2019). Since gaining sovereignty, the countrys economy has grown tremendously, mainly due to its connection to the worlds second-largest economy. Hong Kong has become a global financial and shipping hub leading to its ascendancy to become the worlds second freest economy in the 2020 index (Focus Economics, 2020). Additionally, the GDP has grown steadily over the years, making the country one of the most attractive destinations for foreign investors.
Hong Kongs Financial and Economic System
Between 1961 and 1997, when the country gained independence, its GDP grew by a factor of 180, while the per Capita GDP increased 87 times over the original value (Lee et al., 2019). The Coastal Metropolis is a primary conduit for goods getting into mainland China (more than 13% of all Chinese imports go through the ports in Hong Kong) (Chiu, 2018). In 1998, when the Hong Kong stock market was on the verge of collapsing, the government bought stocks worth more than US$ 15.3 billion to cushion its currency and to revive its ailing economy (Lee et al., 2019). Historically, the city-state has liberalized the private sector by giving the most important sectors of the economy a free hand. To date, the agriculture, services, and industrial sectors enjoy particular freedoms, which allow stakeholders in various industries to drive the economy of the metropolis. For instance, business start-ups in the country are allowed to operate without a license, regardless of the nature of their legal operations (Chiu, 2018). The only requirement for setting up a business in Hong Kong is to ensure that the business owner follows a simple business registration process.
Since gaining its sovereignty, Hong Kong has built a capitalist mixed service economy as well as the worlds best business environments. The firms operating in the metropolis pay low taxes, and there is minimal government intervention in the markets. Consequently, the countrys economy has grown to become the 35th largest economy globally, and its stock exchange is the 5th largest (Lee et al., 2019). As of December 2018, the country had a market capitalization of US$3.87 trillion, and the current Gross Domestic Product (PPP) is $480.5 billion (Focus Economics, 2020). The countrys GDP has been growing steadily for five years before the 2019 recession that occurred in the wake of political and social unrest in the metropolis. Government expenditure has formed 18% of the countrys GDP for the last three years, while budget surpluses have averaged 4% of the countrys output in the same period (Focus Economics, 2020).
One of the primary sources of government revenue is the trans-shipment of cargo through the city-states ports. The country was the 10th largest cross-border trading unit in 2017 in terms of imports and exports (Lee et al., 2019). More than 40% of the goods passing through its ports originate from PR China. The countrys role as a conduit for products in the state has made the regions airport the busiest in the world in international cargo handling. However, the agriculture sector is not a significant contributor to the economy since there is minimal arable land in the metropolis. This sector contributes a paltry 0.1% of the GDP since most of the farmers focus on growing flowers (Lee et al., 2019). Consequently, almost all of the food consumed in the country is imported from other countries.
Hong Kongs Political System
The city-states administration consists of three main arms of government, the executive, the judiciary, and the legislative council. After the one country, two systems agreement of 1997, the country adopted the Basic Law of Hong Kong as the regional constitution (Albert, 2019). The Chief Executive is the leader of the unique administrative region and can serve in that capacity for a maximum of two five-year terms. Hong Kongs head of government has to win a nomination process that involves an election whose voters are 1,200 local and government leaders (Albert, 2019). However, he/she can only assume office after being appointed by the state council and the Premier of China.
The executive has the mandate of enacting and enforcing the law in the region, and its head is responsible for appointing the executive council members. The chief executive has the authority to dissolve the legislative council and to enact regulations that would restore peace in emergencies. On the other hand, the legislative assembly has the power to enact laws, to approve the budget, and to impeach the leader of the country. Each of the 70 members of the council serves on the board for four years after being elected from either a geographical or a functional constituency (Albert, 2019). The judiciary comprises of the lower courts, which are answerable to the Court of Final Appeal. The regions leader appoints all the judges who serve in the Hong Kong judiciary.
The two functions that were not granted to Hong Kong in the 1997 agreement are the defense and the foreign affairs dockets. The Hong Kong garrison is tasked with protecting the public from external threats, but it is comprised entirely of soldiers from mainland China (Albert, 2019). The military has no provisions for Hong Kong residents to enlist in the army. Chinas ministry of foreign affairs handles the regions foreign affairs. However, the city-state retains the power to foster independent cultural and economic relations with other countries.
Hong Kongs Economic Stability
In the last quarter of 2019, even before the outbreak of the Corona Virus global pandemic halted many operations in the metropolis, the regions economic activity plummeted faster than any other time in over a decade (Focus Economics, 2020). Fixed investments in the area and household consumption both declined in 2019, chiefly due to the political standoff between the protestors and the Hong Kong administration. The protestors consider Beijings tightening grip on the regions political activities as a threat to the city-states sovereignty (Focus Economics 2020). Economic analysts have projected a recovery due to Beijings reluctance to intervene in the protests after the impact of the airborne coronavirus halted the riots.
Since the beginning of this year, various metrics prove that the economy of the region is ailing. The purchasing managers index went (PMI) up to 34.9 from 33.1 in the previous month (Focus Economics, 2020). This downturn indicates that the business environment of Hong Kongs private sector is continually deteriorating. Many businesses in the region have declined in new orders, and the employment levels have reduced the PMI index of the 1st quarter implies that the city-states economy has fallen deeper into recession.
Fig 1: Hong Kong PMI March 2020 (Source: Focus Economics, 2020)
Similarly, Februarys retail sales volume has declined by 46.7% of the sizes posted in 2019 (Focus Economics, 2020). Consumer confidence has fallen, and there have been virtually no tourist arrivals due to the coronavirus outbreak. When the average volume of retail sales is adjusted from December 2019 to February this year, the statistics show an 11.7% decline (Focus Economics, 2020). Further, the retail sales are expected to plunge even further, but economic analysts predict a recovery once the government reopens its borders.
Fig 2: Hong Kong Retail Sales by Volume, 2020 (Source: Focus Economics, 2020)
Generally, the regions economy is undergoing a recession, but the trend is expected to reverse and return to normal once the countrys borders have been reopened. The political unrest and the tension between Hong Kong and Beijing are expected to subside, considering that there are no more protests due to the fear of contracting the deadly Corona Virus (Focus Economics, 2020). Additionally, the global pandemic has seen the city-states government close its borders to tourists to avoid a health crisis. However, once the situation normalizes, many expect the country to regain its appeal to investors.
Hong Kongs Trade Relationship with America
Currently, there is a healthy trading partnership between the United States and Hong Kong. In 2018, America was the 2nd most significant trading partner of the Asian city-state as bilateral trade increased by 8.1% in the same year (Chiu, 2018). In that year, the state of Hong Kong was the United States 42nd most crucial source of imports. Also, Hong Kong is the country with which the worlds largest economy enjoys the most prominent trade surplus (which amounts to over US$31 billion) (Lee et al., 2019). Additionally, US nationals are one of the most prevalent foreign presences in the state as there were close to 21,000 of them residing in the metropolis in 2018, and the number of US visitors stood at 1.3 million that year. Not only are there more than 60 large US companies that are represented in Hong Kong, but also there were 290 regional headquarters of American multinationals in Hong Kong in 2018 (Chiu, 2018). Moreover, the metropolis is an essential nexus for merchandise trade between the worlds two largest economies. Finally, Hong Kong does not violate foreign companies intellectual property rights and protects all workers through international labor legislation.
Currency Exchange Rates
The exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries has remained relatively constant in recent years, with one US dollar fetching 7.75116 Hong Kong dollars. In other words, one HKD is worth 0.129013 USD (Chiu, 2018). The constant rates indicate a healthy trading relationship between the two countries.
Risks of Investing in Hong Kong
Despite an otherwise excellent business environment, there are a few risks associated with investing in the metropolis. The main ones include:
The current geopolitical issue is affecting normal business operations, and the situation is likely to be a persistent problem due to the countrys proximity to China (Lee et al., 2019).
Hong Kongs economy is excessively reliant on the financial sector, which would pose a problem during periods of economic downturns (Chiu, 2018).
The rent for properties and offices is high.
The workers in the metropolis demand significantly high wages than employees in the neighboring countries.
Comparative Advantage of Investing in Hong Kong
Some of the comparative advantages that the area holds over other countries include free trade policies and favourable tax measures. Further, its position as the gateway to the most significant production base in the world (China), economic stability, an adequate infrastructure, and one of the worlds best financial systems (Focus Economics, 2020). Additionally, international labor laws protect the workers in the country, and foreign companies intellectual property rights are protected.
Viability of Investments in Hong Kong
While investing in Hong Kong today would result in massive losses for investors, it is hardly a good time to spend anywhere else in the world due to the global corona pandemic. However, the ongoing political unrest is a legitimate source of concern. On the other hand, setting up a business in the coastal metropolis will be a desirable proposition after the effects of the corona pandemic have subsided. The regions government has proven in the past that it will take all the necessary actions to stabilize its economy and to attract foreign investors. Currently, the metropolis is home to more than 7.5 million people, most of whom are Han Chinese (Albert, 2019). The state has a residential population density of close to 100,000 people per square kilometre (Chiu, 2018). Whereas Cantonese is the first language, more than half of the inhabitants can speak English. Both factors are a huge boost for American investors since their businesses will have plenty of customers, half of whom can speak English.
Additionally, due to the highly effective transport and utility infrastructure present in the area, investors should not worry about moving their merchandise into, across, and out of the metropolis. According to recent statistics, more than 90% of daily commuting occurs via public transport, which eases congestion in central business districts (Chiu, 2018). Additionally, the locals use smart, contactless cards on their way to and from work on buses, trains, ferries, and other means of transport. Also, most of the energy is generated locally, and more than 92% of the households are connected to broadband internet (Lee et al., 2019). The main challenge facing the local population is access to safe drinking water.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Despite considerable political unrest in Hong Kong in recent months, as well as the coronavirus pandemic, the unique administration region of China is still one of the best investment locations in the world. The metropolis has shown considerable resilience in the wake of these recent setbacks. The country has a robust banking system capable of weathering this recession, which will restore the waning consumer and investor confidence.
Fig 3: Banking Statistics in Hong Kong since 2014 (Source: Focus Economics, 2020)
The bedrock of the economy is the services sector, and investors should focus on the provision of privatized services in education, health (especially assistance to the elderly and the disabled), tourism, and technologies that will conserve the environment. The services sector employs the bulk of the local population, implying that labor will be readily available.
Fig 4: Employers in Hong Kong per Sector (Source: Focus Economics, 2020)
To sum up, despite the current turbulent economic times, all the pointers indicate that the countrys economy will recover, and investors from the United States should take advantage of the excellent trading relationship between the two countries. Not only is it easy to run a business in the metropolis, but American investors will have access to the Chinese production base. In that way, they will not worry about their intellectual property rights being violated.
References
Albert, E. (2019). Democracy in Hong Kong. Council on Foreign Relations. Web.
Chiu, S. W. K. (2018). City states in the global economy: Industrial restructuring in Hong Kong and Singapore. Routledge.
Lee, F., Tang, G., & Tsang, C. K. (2019). Financialization and generational differences in the correlates of perceived importance of investment in Hong Kong. Social Transformations in Chinese Societies, 15(2), 161-177.
Investigation of the main hazards that pose a threat to the security of a certain community and its well-being is an important process that should be given great attention. In case a natural disaster is not predicted, and the population is not prepared, numerous devastations and disasters are possible. In this regard, THIRA analysis becomes a powerful tool that is used to identify the most important and most probable hazards that are peculiar to the local community.
Analysis
The application of THIRAs basic principles to the situation in Pennsylvania helps to obtain important information. Besides, there is a great threat of snow and ice storms in the region (Sosnowski par. 4). The given natural phenomena might be very dangerous as it results in traffic collapse and power losses (Homeland Security 4). Considering low temperatures and short light days, it could be considered a great challenge to all members of the community. The ice storm of 2014 pieces of evidence that these problems are peculiar to the state as it experienced numerous problems of this sort (Bacon par. 4).
The potential risks obviously become greater in winter periods as the weather conditions contribute to the appearance of snowfalls and ice storms (Union of Concerned Scientists 5). The community becomes extremely vulnerable at these seasons. Great territories might be endangered as the snowfall area is rather big. Previous experience shows that about 1 million people were affected by this natural disaster ( Its official: Ice storm breaks Peco record for winter outages par. 4).
For this reason, the potential harm remains significant, and there is a great need for preventive actions that could mitigate the negative impact of this phenomenon. THIRA analysis could help to obtain the needed information.
As stated above, snowfalls and ice storms might result in numerous problems. First, huge masses of snow could paralyze the traffic system and introduce significant problems with supply. Being deprived of an opportunity to satisfy their needs for food and goods, people might suffer from numerous hardships. Additionally, power losses are also dangerous. The modern community depends on electricity and energy greatly, and the collapse of the given system might result in the appearance of crucial aftermaths. Heating and other crucial services will not function and provide people with the needed conditions.
For these reasons, mitigation of the negative effects of a winter storm is the primary task for the local authorities. Knowledge of the main peculiarities of this natural disaster, areas affected by it, its duration, and severity will condition the creation of a certain strategic plan (Pydynowski par. 3). First, it is vital to prepare snow clearing equipment to guarantee the efficient functioning of the road system. Machines should be placed at the most important road junctions as their stable work is a key to the preservation and protection of the communitys aligned functioning. Moreover, considering the great probability of energy losses, people should be provided with power generators to fulfill their need for energy.
Additionally, the equipment needed for the organization of special warming centers for homeless people should be stored up. These centers should provide access to food, goods, warm clothes, and other products needed for survival. This plan should be accepted in the shortest terms after the threat of a snowstorm has been discovered.
Conclusion
That is why local authorities will increase the number of snow clearing equipment to be ready to guarantee efficient movement. Moreover, the necessity of the increased manpower is also obvious as many workers will be needed to use this equipment, work in warming centers, and help disabled people.
Peoples lives are always connected with potential risks that can cause serious problems. Thus, decently maintained risk assessment is important because it ensures that those problems that may have a negative impact on the health and environment can be predicted and taken under control. With its help, professionals receive an opportunity to make appropriate decisions for air and water protection. Moreover, it allows ensuring the safety of products people use every day so that no issues will occur because of a chemical substance.
The process of assessment follows a particular plan that is established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and even though some progress in this process was made, the assessment of particular chemicals requires a lot of time, which postpones interventions. The thing is that the process of risk assessment is often criticized and questioned in the framework of its value and credibility. Very often the resources (both monetary and human) available for the assessment are not enough. Due to the rapid development in the scientific spheres, it also turned into a rather complex procedure with an increased number of problems. Still, professionals considered several approached that can be used to improve the process of environmental risk assessment.
Recommendations from the Articles
The article prepared by the Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency offers several recommendations that are expected to make risk assessment more credible and helpful (4). First of all, they encourage to pay attention to the plan of assessment so that it aligns with decision-making needs.
It is recommended to create and use guidance to define the required level of detail. The dose-response assessments should be systematic and include background information on a disease, populations, and treatment actions. Defaults should be revised and then be generally used, and cumulative risk assessments implemented. Stakeholder involvement should be increased, and a formal process for it established. Finally, it is important to make sure that the agency will be able to implement the required changes.
While the first work is mainly focused on the recommendations regarding the credibility of assessment procedures, the one prepared by the Science Communication Unit discusses various methods and techniques that can be used (4). Thus, it recommends using interdisciplinary science when dealing with general problems. Still, standardization is still addressed in this framework.
New real-time assessment is needed to avoid the usage of outdated, inappropriate data. This article also emphasized greater stakeholder involvement, as it can help with social and political obstacles. The Science Communication Unit encourages to combine existing assessment models to overcome their drawbacks and use new methodology when analyzing chemicals (5). They recommend using geodiversity information to consider how to adapt the ecosystem to changes.
Recommendations and Conclusions
Thus, it can be concluded that the environmental risk assessment is important for the human beings process that is aimed at ensuring safety from chemical substances. Unfortunately, it is often questioned today and fails to meet professionals expectations. To improve the situation, they offer various interventions. On their basis, I recommend to pay more attention to the assessment procedure and resources needed for it.
All stakeholders should participate in the search of funding and efficient human resources. The commonly used plan of actions and defaults should be revised. The data used for assessments should always be current and authoritative. Finally, the readiness of the agency to implement these changes should be ensured. The attention should be paid to the leadership, training, and interactions between the teams.
Works Cited
Committee on Improving Risk Analysis Approaches Used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Advancing Risk Assessment. 2008. PDF file.
There are several risks that such company as Target can be exposed. First of all, it is possible to speak about the changes in labor legislation. The government of the United States or Canada can introduce new laws requiring Target and other large retailers to raise minimum wages for the employees.
This change can strongly affect the financial performance of this organization. Currently, the company faces various lawsuits related to their alleged failure to compensate their employees properly and offer them adequate medical insurance (EOWLD1 unpaged). Thus, it is possible that these legal conflicts can eventually give rise to new laws. Canadian citizens do not receive healthcare coverage directly from the employer, it is provided by the government (Greenberg, 63).
However, the cost of the coverage is reflected in the taxes that private companies pay. Therefore, rapid increase in these health coverage costs can result in extra expense for Target. The company has to be ready for these changes in legislations; otherwise they can lose their positions in the market.
Secondly, this management of this company should remember that economic recession forces people in Canada to choose less expensive products, and as a result, retailing companies have to lower the prices and enter price competition.
This competition will be very difficult for Target, especially if we consider its rivalry competition with Wall-Mart (Rowley, 175). Finally, one should also take into account that some Canadian customers may give preference to local retailers rather than foreign ones. Therefore, by opening new stores in Canada Target may not achieve the expected profits.
The contingency plan can include several important steps. For example, the company should develop new compensation plan which reflect the possible changes in labor laws in Canada. Admittedly, this change can affect the profitability of this corporation at the beginning but without it they will not be able to operate in this country.
The second important step is to expand the range of their products. Currently, this company offers high quality products to middle-income people (Rowley, 175). They should also sell the merchandise that will affordable to people of lower income. Additionally, this corporation should establish close partnership with a variety of Canadian suppliers in order to make their supply chain more cost-effective.
Finally, this organization has to make sure that it is viewed by Canadian customers as a responsible corporate citizen. In part, Target can do it by retaining the employees of Zellers Inc, the retailing company that they acquired. Overall, these strategies can avert possible risks or at least minimize their impacts.
Strategy Map and Balanced Scorecard
At this point, it is necessary for us to illustrate the future goals of Target Corporation by means of this strategy map. They are closely connected to the companys intention to open new stores in Canada. They are as follows:
Financial Perspective
To increase the profitability of the Canadian department stores acquired by Target by 10 percent at the end of 2012.
To increase the sales volumes of these stores by 5 percent at the end of 2012
To reduce the operational expenses by 5 percent at the end of 2012.
Measurement
Overall, the management of this company should take measurements on a quarterly basis. They need to focus on three criteria sales rates, net income, and operational expenses of those Canadian stores that merged with the company. Such approach will enable them to track their progress.
Customer Perspective
To make sure that the company is viewed by Canadian customers as company that values corporate social responsibility.
To develop methods of attracting new customers, for example, by improving the quality of services.
Measurement
The company can adopt several research methods to evaluate and measure Canadian clients perceptions. For example, they can conduct online surveys prompting the customers to assess Target in terms of their prices or service quality. The results of these customer surveys will be the milestones showing where these customers have a favorable opinion about the company.
Internal perspective
To reduce the stock out rate to a minimum.
To establish more close alliances with a variety of Canadian supplier.
Measurement
The management can evaluate this aspect of performance by counting the number of stork-out within a month. These measurements must be taken each month, and they will serve as the key milestones for the management. The second objective can be measured by the number of business partners that Target has in Canada.
Learning Perspective and growth
To make sure that the best practices are quickly dissimilated and adopted across the company.
To improve the skills of every employee by offering training programs to the personnel.
Measurement
The management can evaluate learning and growth in Canadian stores by measuring the amount of time it takes different department stores to assimilate the best practices of the Company. These measurements must be taken each month, and they will serve as the key milestones for the management. Furthermore, the management should conduct assessment of employees performance every month.
The first aspect that has been identified in the strategy map is financial perspective. At this point, the main objective is to reduce the operations costs and increase sales by five percent in Canadian stores. This goal can be achieved by offering products to people of various incomes. Secondly, the management can achieve this goal by optimizing the supply chain.
The second aspect, which can be equally important to Target Corporation is the customer perspective. As it has been said, the company must demonstrate that they really act as a responsible corporate citizen that will benefit Canadian customers. They can attain this objective in several ways.
First, the management must eliminate labor law violations in the workplace. Such controversial incidents can really damage the reputation of this organization and prevent it from expanding in the United States or Canada. Secondly, they can do it by retaining the employees of former companies such as Zellers Inc.
Thirdly, one should not overlook internal process perspective. The main objectives are to minimize stock out rates and establish partnerships with Canadian suppliers. The stock out time can be minimized by using more accurate demand-forecasting methods. Finally, the management should foster learning and growth in the organization. This perspective is probably also vital for the success of Target Corporation. The key task is to make sure that ideas and best practices are quickly disseminated across the company.
They need to work on the improvement of workers skills. This is why they should offer training programs to the members of the staff. Finally, the company needs to offer stimulus to well-performing and talented employees. For example, they can give monthly awards the best employees. Later, the management should track their performance on a monthly basis. This assessment will show whether these bonuses and training programs contribute to better performance.
These are the strategies that Target should pursue in order to achieve success in Canada.
Works Cited
Greenberg, Warren. The Health Care Marketplace. London: Beard Books, 2002. Print.
Rowley, Laura. On Target: How the Worlds Hottest Retailer Hit a Bulls-Eye. NY: John Wiley & Sons, 2004. Print.
Two major approaches to risk assessment (RA) exist: qualitative and quantitative (Kliem & Richie, 2015). The qualitative method implies evaluation of risks, their interactions as well as assessment of their probability and impact. One of the major goals and benefits of the approach is the possibility to prioritize risks. Quantitative approach implies weighting value of risks and their interactions as well as assessment of outcomes that are manifested in financial terminology (Kliem & Richie, 2015, p. 82). This enables managers to evaluate possible contingencies to the budget or time frames. Quantitative analysis is often more detailed, and it is more appropriate when the estimation of risks overall effects on the project is necessary.
The organization should undertake a number of steps to ensure RA is appropriate. The first step is to identify threats and hazards to critical operations (Engelmann & Henderson, 2011). Managers should focus on the most relevant risks. After that, it is necessary to determine and evaluate controls. Controls are procedures that minimize the probability of transitioning through the entire chain of the risk event aimed at mitigating the risk impact. The next step is to evaluate event probabilities and the potential impact. It is also essential to identify a risk measure through a combination of impact and probability. The final stage is prioritizing risks.
Managers can estimate probability with the help of qualitative or quantitative analysis. In terms of the former, the probability valuation can be high, medium, low. This type of analysis is instrumental in prioritizing. Whereas, quantitative analysis implies the use of numerical probabilities (Graham & Kaye, 2015). The major sources of data for both types of analysis include questionnaires, interviews, documents, observation, workshops, internal audit. It is necessary to add that the sources of data can be internal and external. The former include the staff, auditing, management, contractors and so on. The external data involve police officials, weather bureau, fire officials and so on. Estimation of probability enables managers to develop cost-effective strategies that mitigate the aftermaths of risks or disrupt the event chain.
Probability statistics is vital for the RA process as it enables managers to collect, describe, analyze various data. Statistical techniques help managers to estimate risks probability. Statistics may help estimate particular costs and timeframes that can help mitigate risk impact through disruption of the event chain (Young & Coleman, 2010). The major value of statistics is the fact that the technique provides a set of particular tools to evaluate risk probability in numerical terms. These data can be expressed in a graphical form, which is helpful for prioritizing and evaluation of the risk impact. Statistical tools make the process of decision-making easier and more effective as it is evidence-based.
The Bayes theory helps evaluate event probabilities when new data are available. Thus, prior probability can be estimated on the basis of available information. It can be estimated with the use of outside resources (experience of other companies). However, when new data are available, the theorem enables to include them into the calculation and estimate the probability in a more precise way. The more data appear, the more precise results can be obtained. At the same time, there is no need to try to get all the possible information at once as there is a possibility to estimate the event probability each time new data are available.
The mean value is relevant to BCM as the calculation of the mean is important for measuring central tendency. The calculation of the mean value enables managers to estimate the probability of risk events with a significant degree of precision. The mean value is also instrumental in the evaluation and prioritizing risks. It is possible to note that the availability of new data is not crucial as the manager can evaluate the probability of risk events. The mean value can also be used when some tendencies are estimated. When precise data are important, the mean can be regarded as a standard to follow or a trend to avoid.
According to the empirical rule, almost 70% of items are within one standard deviation of the mean (Engelmann & Henderson, 2011, p. 179). Around 95% of items are within two standard deviations of the mean while more than 99% are within three standard deviations of the mean (Engelmann & Henderson, 2011, p. 179). The empirical rule can be applied to the data that have a bell-shaped distribution. The empirical rule is applicable in BCM, and it helps managers to evaluate and prioritize risks. This is vital for the development of cost-effective strategies aimed at mitigation of aftermaths of risks or their avoidance.
To measure multiple and simultaneous risk events, it is possible to apply a number of statistical techniques. The addition rule can be applied to evaluate multiple events. It ensures that risk events and their aftermaths are not taken into account several times. The permutation can be employed when simultaneous risk events occur (Engelmann & Henderson, 2011). The combination can be utilized to measure multiple risk events.
Reference List
Engelmann, K.J., & Henderson, D.M. (2011). Business continuity and risk management: Essentials of organizational resilience. Brookfield, CT: Rothstein Publishing.
Graham, J., & Kaye, D. (2015). A risk management approach to business continuity: Aligning business continuity and corporate governance. Brookfield, CT: Rothstein Publishing.
Kliem, R.L., & Richie, G.D. (2015). Business continuity planning: A project management approach. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Young, B., & Coleman, R. (2010). Operational risk assessment: The commercial imperative of a more forensic and transparent approach. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.