Category: Hurricane

Human beings have little control over natural disasters; they can hardly prevent natural disasters occurrences. However certain human activities trigger the occurrence of natural disasters.

When natural disasters strike, they are destructive; in areas that are highly prone to occurrence of natural disasters, policy makers should enact risk management policies to ensure in proper natural disaster prediction and management.

The United State is prone to number of natural disasters that include earth quakes, hurricanes, tornados, blizzards (Winter Storm), floods, and Disease Epidemics (Barnes 2-12). This paper identifies a probable natural disaster likely to strike Indiana University Board (IUB); the natural disaster to be discussed is hurricane.

Identification and selection of Hurricane

The natural disaster likely to affect Indiana University Board (IUB) is a hurricane. In the fast changing environmental conditions, triggered by human activities and natural occurrences, there are high chances that IUB will suffer a hurricane.

Hurricanes are strong destructive winds which originate from large water bodies like sea or ocean; when the winds reach the land surface near to the water body, the speed they reach with becomes destructive.

According to National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), areas near large water bodies are more vulnerable to hurricanes, excessive rain and generally bad weather conditions than those in far land masses.

The location of Indiana University Board (IUB) is near a water body thus including it to among those areas that are prone to hurricanes. According to Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office, 2007, there are 50 chances the county will experience a hurricane in the next seven years (National Climatic Data Center).

History of Monroe County , the location of the college, shows that there has been hurricane attacks in the region, in 1989, there was a hurricane called Hurricane Hugo which was followed by yet another one three years later called Hurricane Andrew.

Hurricane Hugo remains in history as the largest and most destructive hurricane to have occurred in the region having a speed of 139 miles per hour and caused 23 deaths. Hurricanes can only be predicted four days before their occurrence thus the county and the company need to be vigilant to avoid last minute rush.

Vulnerability Factors

IUB has numerous structures that are controlled by people and students that in the event a hurricane attack, the facility will suffer huge losses.

The structures at risk include the buildings, facilities like departments, lecture halls, servant and lecturer premises, student’s hostels, and sporting structures. other than the structures , which can be rebuild after an attack, there are people, who are in the facility at the time of the attack, they range from tutors, students, other non teaching staffs, and people contracted to carry out certain projects within the university.

The destruction can be massive. in the event there is a strike the economic environment of the university and the people living and depending with the facility for live hood would be massive, the structures costs high amounts of money thus constructing them afresh will cost the facility more, the students will lack continuity in their education which is a cost by its self, and researches underway that might have taken a long period might be destroyed leading to waste of much money (Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office).

Hurricane Risk Assessment at IUB

To assess the eventuality of an occurrence of a natural disaster, policy makers should access the geological and/or hydro-meteorological hazards to which a particular country or region is exposed; the location of Monroe County is located opposite to a water body thus the likelihood of a hurricane attack is high.

The vulnerability of the coastal areas increases the probabilistic occurrence of hurricanes; in these events it requires economic planning to militate against large losses likely to occur.

To access the risk that certain area will be prone to a disaster, there need to consider historical, scientific, and known vulnerability and make decisions with the parameters in mind. Scientific interventions and researchers have shown that there are certain typical paths and seasons which hurricanes attacks are more expected; with the knowledge, it is important to address the matter considering the recorded statistics and continue undertaking research and evaluations.

When a hurricane has been predicted to occur, there should be effective policies implemented to get remedy to local hazards and address known vulnerabilities.

To assess the risk of hurricane at IUB the best method to use is probabilistic hurricane event model. Under the model the vulnerability of a certain town is accessed using historical occurrences and the physical situation of the area.

The general assumption is that those areas that have had past experience with hurricanes are still more likely to experience them in the future. On the other hand those areas that have had strong winds, they are next to water bodies, and there are no natural or artificial structures to prevent the effect of a strong wind.

The larger Florida state has had 488 tropical or subtropical cyclones, of which since 1851 only eighteen hurricane seasons have passed without being detected; they have made varying destructions to manmade and natural resources.

Before 1990, it is estimated that there have been a total of 6,504 fatalities and the estimated monetary loss from hurricane attacks has been estimated at $90 million. In the stated period, the first hurricane attack to have been recorded was in 1523 when two ships and their crews were lost along the Western Coastline; approximately 109 ships and boats have been driven ashore, damaged, or wrecked due to storm.

Between the period between 1900 and 1949, there were a total of 108 tropical cyclones with an estimated damage of $4 Billion as per 2008 hurricane loss estimate.

In the near past, there have been approximately 58 tropical or subtropical cyclones; the hurricanes are known to have created a damage of approximately $64 Billion.

Between year 2003 and 2005, there were a total of eight cyclones in the United States. The situation of Monroe and the vulnerability of its location to hurricanes should be the major focus that the county’s policy makers should have in mind, they should enact measures to weight and predict the occurrence of a hurricane and make such policies that reduce its effect.

Conclusion

Probabilistic hurricane-event model suggests that Monroe County, which houses Indiana University Board, is at a high risk of hurricane attack; the model supports the arguments using historical hurricane occurrences in the city and scientific geological researches.

The closeness to a large water body and occasional strong winds from the water bodies makes the county vulnerable to hurricane attacks. According to Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office, 2007, there are 50 chances that the county will experience a hurricane attack in the next seven years; this calls for effective risk assessment and management policy.

Works Cited

Barnes, Jay. Florida’s Hurricane History. New York: Chapel Hill Press, 2007. Print.

Monroe County Sheriff‘s Office. Monroe Hurricanes. NOAA Satellite and Information Service. 01-Mar. 2007. Web.

National Climatic Data Center. Latest Hurricane Map. NOAA Satellite and Information Service. 01 Mar. 2011. Web.

National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Warming Trend for Plains Region into the Weekend. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s. 10 Nov. 2011. Web.

Introduction

What is a hurricane? “Hurricane” is a word that was corrupted from the word “Huracan” which was traditional Taino name for an evil god. Hurricanes are also known by other names depending on where one is: typhoons, or cyclones, or baguios are some of the names that are used. They are also referred as the world’s greatest storms sometimes having the power of ten thousand nuclear bombs and thus are rated as natural hazards of great magnitude that affect both people and the environment (Fitzpatrick, 1999).

Main body

A hurricane can be classified as a gigantic tropical storm with a width of up to 600 miles. Hurricanes usually take place in summer or in autumn and gather in open oceans and are characterized by winds of at least 63Km/h.Hurricanes are mainly restricted to the Northern Atlantic Ocean (Elsner et al, 1999).

It is important at this stage to draw the difference between a hurricane and a tropical storm. Most people at times use both terms to refer to the same thing. However tropical storms are of less intensity and precede the actual hurricane (NOAA).

Hurricanes basically evolve in three stages namely:

• Tropical depression
• Tropical storm
• Hurricane

Tropical depression occurs when a group of storms converge under some conducive atmospheric conditions for a prolonged period of time. Once this has intensified to a point where the maximum wind velocity reaches about 39-73mph, it transforms into a tropical storm. The storm assumes a more circular shape. It then becomes a hurricane when wind speeds reach about 74mph sustainable speeds (NOAA).

A Saffir-Simpson scale is an instrument used to measure the category of a hurricane. The Saffi-Simpson scale is a device that is used to classify the relative strength of hurricanes. The classification is done by approximating the hurricanes’ winds and storm’s relative damage of the coastline where it hits. Therefore the scale basically measures the intensity of the storm. The scale is usually calibrated from 1 to 5, and the readings are normally determined by the wind speeds. Meteorologists use the scale to assess the level of damage at the coast line after a hurricane episode (Fitzpatrick, 1999).

A storm surge happens when a hurricane moves water up; the next event is water landfall resulting to a storm surge. Storm surges therefore are basically onshore floods of water which are usually associated with low pressure and intense weather system which can be classified typically as a tropical cyclone. It occurs as a result of an elevated sea surface which emerges from a reduced atmospheric pressure around the sea. Also, the storm winds that drive the sea water into the coast line can lead to the formation of storm surges which are quite big and sometime exceed six meters (Richard & Kam-biu, 2004).

Hurricanes’ records for the year 2005 running to 2007 are very different and do not show some consistency according to the various records by NASA; for example during the year 2005, the number of hurricanes rose to 15 above the normal average, this was the highest number of hurricanes to have ever been recorded in history, Tropical depressions were 25 which progressed to 22 tropical storms and later to 15 hurricanes. However, in 2006 the records show that there were only 5 number of hurricanes with 13-16 tropical storms (NASA, 2006), the number rose slightly to 6 in 2007.The vast difference between the years 2005 to 2007 was attributed to dust and dry air (NASA, 2006). Various data analyzed for the last 100 years have shown a marked increase in the number of hurricanes which show some very close correlation with sea surface temperatures. Most of the meteorologists attribute this rise to the global warming that is evident across the world due to human activity.

There are other weather related processes which can adversely affect hurricanes seasons. These include: Heavy rainfall which results to flooding and strong wind which result to destruction of properties. When heavy rainfall coincides with hurricanes, the degree of damage is quite high since it causes flooding which eventually leads to the loss of life and property. The rise in pressure at the sea level can also affect hurricane seasons (NOAA).

Conclusion

Global warming has been variably described as the major contributing factor to the increased cases of hurricanes for the last one century. Human activity such as the release of green house gases has had a significant effect. Unfortunately in many instances the hurricanes cause so much human damage especially to the vulnerable, for example Hurricane Katrina led to the great suffering of the general population in New Orleans. However, the great technological advancements even though unable to conclusively predict when and where the storms will hit, are able to detect the moment a storm builds up, the cause and the likely route the storm might take. This helps greatly in disaster prediction and mitigation and evacuation measures even days before the storm hits home.

References

1. Elsner, James B., and A. Birol Kara.(1999): Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: climate and society. New York, Oxford University Press.
2. Fitzpatrick, Patrick J. (1999) Natural disasters, hurricanes: a reference handbook. Santa Barbara, CA, ABC-CLIO,
3. NASA, (2007), 2006 “Hurricane Season.” Science Daily. Web.
4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Hurricanes.
5. Richard J. Murnane and Kam-biu Liu (Ed) (2004): Hurricanes and typhoons: past, present, and future. New York, Columbia University Press.

Definition

In the past 20 years, hurricanes have had a more devastating impact on the insurance industry than in the entire history. This fact made the industry players more sensitive towards the catastrophes, especially when determining the insurance policies to offer. According to insurance definition, hurricanes form in the oceans, and both the winds and floods move towards the mainland causing great damages to properties in urban and rural areas. Hurricanes can affect any state regardless of the location. In the United States, however, several regions have been identified to be more prone to this natural catastrophe. Indeed, today, the main challenge is the flooding caused by coastal hazards, such as hurricanes that become more frequent and severe, creating unexpected threat to the coastal regions and the Midwestern states. In fact, in those areas, hurricanes have historically taken place once in every 20 years, but now, they are expected to occur every four or five years. The situation has become a major concern of insurers because more than a half of the American citizens live in the coastal regions, and about a half of the nation’s GDP is produced in the Gulf and Atlantic coastal regions.

According to estimates given by Pasich, Fleishman and Paar, losses caused by flood along the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines will increase by 80 percent with a half meter rise in sea level by 2030 (1-3). About 210 hurricanes have occurred in the eastern US in the last 100 years, reflecting a mean frequency of 2.1 land-falling hurricanes annually. The relative dearth level because of hurricane occurrences and the complexities resulting from rapidly changing demographics are the major reasons that insurers have used simulation models to accurately forecast hurricane losses. The hurricane season starts in June and lasts until November or early December. In most cases, many insurance firms will not accept any new application after an allocated hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico and, in particular, the area located in the borders of 20 degrees north latitude by 80 degrees west longitude.

Insurance coverage

Insurance for losses caused by hurricanes can be offered under a number of different kinds of insurance policies. The insurance coverage is provided under a ‘property’ policy as well as other laws including home-owner’s, comprehensive and renters’ ones (Tutwiler 2). Many of these property insurance policies cover damages of real properties caused by the disaster. Due to the breadth of coverage given by an ‘all risk’ policy, when an insured states that he/she has suffered a loss from a disaster, the burden of evidence shifts to the insurance carrier to demonstrate that the damage is not paid back. Property insurance policies generally cover all the structure that are mentioned and scheduled in the policy.

The property insurance policies are also responsible for insuring personal property. In most cases, this coverage is offered under a personal property provision that is not classified. The provision usually offers coverage for personal property not listed that is typical or secondary to the occupancy of the structure or utilized by the insured in the particular structure. Certain types of property, especially those that can be moved easily, are covered only under floater endorsements to the larger policy. The endorsements or policies are used for business personal staff, such as furniture, stock, machines, at least to the level where the properties are within the insured sites.

Typically, property policies consist of provisions that are paid for preventive efforts put by the insured to avoid damages as well as those that might require such efforts. The provisions are known as ‘sue and labor’ ones. Essentially, these provisions apply only if the insured spends some money to protect the covered premises from destruction or damage resulted from a hurricane. The purpose of the provision is to encourage the insured to engage in protecting the threatened property so as to avoid unnecessary expenses to the insuring company caused by a greater damage to the covered item. The policy normally applies, for instance, when an insured reinforces its roof to avoid damage.

In insuring disasters like hurricanes, many home-owner’s and renter’s policies offer coverage for another expense called ‘additional living expenses’. This kind of policy is defined as any essential increase in living expenses an insured incurs so that the family can continue living under the normal standards. The coverage for home-owners policies is usually offered in the shortest period required to replace the damaged property or to relocate. This coverage has not only a time limit, but also a financial limit.

In addition to the policies mentioned above, property insurance policies relating to hurricanes also provide coverage in business interruption. This kind of insurance protects against the several kinds of economic damages. The damages are defined in the following manner. The insurance covers physical properties of the business as well as the consequences related to business operations. The coverage includes contingent business interruption, gross earnings, profit and commission, extra expense and civil authority coverage. Generally, the business interruption coverage involves the expenses that an insured incurs in reopening a business for a certain period.

Property policies exclude only damages caused by floods (Wall 7). In such cases which extend coverage to damages caused by wind, the usual flood exclusion which is presently in use alleges to exclude damage resulting from or caused by wind. Such kind of exclusion that is probably brought to a court as a result of damages suffered by the insured following a hurricane has been the bases of many controversies. The more the insurer policies fail to include flood damages which are directly related to hurricane cases, the more litigations have been put in place in regard to insurance claims.

Issues regarding coverage

Most policies dealing with property insurance offer coverage for damages resulting from hurricanes, apart from flood damage caused by the disaster (Mills 67). As a matter of fact, flood coverage cannot be fully covered with the general property insurance policies though if an insured has a flood insurance policy, then he/she will get a coverage in case of flood damages. Many insurance firms as well as the federal government which is to follow the National Flood Insurance Program are responsible for paying the coverage back. The program includes the insurance premiums and covers the claims and losses. Some property insurance policies, however, offer restricted coverage in case of hurricanes or demand a greater deductible to be bought specifically for the hurricane hazard. Most states that are vulnerable to hurricanes have government controlled insurance programs that offer hurricane coverage to individuals who cannot get insurance via the voluntary market.

The consequences of Hurricane Katrina resulted in large debts in National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and its continued reliance on taxpayer support. According to insurance brokers’ estimation, the hurricane could cost world insurance and reinsurance sectors about US$40 billion (Buckley 1). Other government studies claimed that NFIP was not actuarially sound. The program could not collect enough premium income to create reserves to respond to long-term anticipated future flood losses. This was in part because the US Congress authorized sponsored insurance rates for certain properties. The catastrophic hurricane which had induced flood occurrence in 2005 required large loans from the US Treasury to pay claims. Another concern was that properties that had suffered repeated flooding and were still to be paid caused a great drain on NFIP resources (Linnerooth-Bayer and Mechler 4).

Hurricane Katrina also raised the major issues for private insurers. For instance, in Florida, the hurricane inflicted the largest US catastrophe loss and resulted in chief insurance insolvencies. Florida insurance market’s financial strength had already been affected by the withdrawal of some national insurers (partly due to regulations requiring insurers to provide the same premiums to most vulnerable coastal regions and low-risk mainland properties) that were replaced by government-sponsored entities and weakly-capitalized insurers. For example, the second biggest insurance company in Florida, the Poe Financial Group which insures homes, apartments and condos, declared insolvency in 2006. Indeed, this was the biggest bankruptcy the Florida state had ever overseen. The state-sponsored insurers were to bear the outstanding claims. This case shows that even strongly capitalized and diversified insurance firms faced insolvency as a result of hurricane Katrina.

Hurricane Katrina uncovered the lingering dissatisfaction with the state sponsored programs and private insure procedures, particularly pertaining to definition between flood coverage and wind damages. Since NFIP does not offer wind damage insurance, it has been argued that the US should establish a nationwide all-hazards policy. Hurricane Katrina also showed a principal problem in communication and information in regard to NFIP and private insurers’ policies. Many complainants were surprised to find restricted coverage, which prompted some to argue that there was a need to increase the maximum insurance limits substantially (Griffin 3). Mills observed that the limitation of insurance was often criticized, but in some situations, it could also be seen as an sign that society was restricted in its capacity to pay the skyrocketing costs of hurricanes (1042).

Conclusion

In respect to insurance standards, hurricanes are natural disasters caused by weather changes in the ocean which are characterized by very strong winds and floods in some cases. Although the coastal regions of the United States are the most vulnerable to this hazard, its impacts can extend to the mainland as well. There is an increasing trend in the frequency of the hurricane’s occurrence within the last twenty years, reporting on the highest level of this natural catastrophe in history. Hurricanes mostly occur between June and November. The insurance loss caused by hurricanes is mainly covered under the property policy though there are other relevant policies, such as home-owner’s and renter’s policies. Damages caused by floods are not covered under the general property policy as the federal government alone bears the risk through NFIP which includes the premiums to insured as well as pays the claims and losses. This is the major reason for hurricane Katrina’s controversy when NFIP could not collect enough premium income to create reserves to respond to long-term anticipated future flood losses though most of the insurance firms had experienced insolvencies as a result of previous hurricanes in the past.

Works Cited

Buckley, Patrick et al. The Insurance Industry’s Troubling Response to Hurricane Katrina. 2006. Web.

Griffin, D. L. Testimony Before the US Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee Concerning the National Flood Insurance program on Behalf of the property Casualty Insurers Association of America. Washington DC: Congressional Record, 2007. Print.

Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne and Reinhard Mechler. Federal Emergency Management Agency Challenges Facing the National Flood Insurance Program. 2005. Web.

Mills, Evan. “Insurance in a Climate of Change.” Science 309(2005): 1040-1044. Print.

Mills, Evan. From Risk to Opportunity: Insurer Responses to Climate Change. Boston, MA: Ceres, 2007. Print.

Pasich, Kirk, Fleishman, Barry and Randy Paar. A Guide to Insurance Coverage for Losses from Hurricane Katrina. 2005. PDF file. Web.

Tutwiler, Charles. Property Insurance Law and Ordinance Coverage-Illusionary. n.d. PDF file. Web.

Wall, Dennis. “Flood Exclusions, Hurricanes and Theories of Insurance Coverage.” Property Insurance Law Committee Newsletter 2005: 7-10. Web.

Compare the advantages and disadvantages of a Bureaucratic/Hierarchical model vs. a Network model for organizational change

One of the advantages of a bureaucratic model is that it is more effective and efficient in implementing organizational change. It involves the participation of individuals specialized in specific work groups that execute different organizational activities geared towards the implementation of change (Wise, 2006). Therefore, it enhances performance and productivity by encouraging specialization. In contrast, a network model encourages cooperation between employees. It promotes the concept of teamwork. Therefore, the overall performance of an organization is higher. The bureaucratic model has efficient leadership that encourages responsibility and accountability. Individuals are aware of whom to report to, and who is responsible for giving directions regarding the implementation of change (Wise, 2006). The model also offers employees clear paths for career advancement. The network model is flexible. Organizations can adapt to changes in technology and market forces thus enhancing their survival. In contrast, the bureaucratic model has poor flexibility and ineffective communication. The model adapts slowly to change hence inflexibility. Organizations are thus unable to respond effectively to changes in technology or market forces that affect their operations. On the other hand, specialization affects the overall performance of the organization because it focuses on the operations of specific departments and divisions (Wise, 2006).

Create a hypothetical response scenario for a recent hurricane disaster in which an adaptive management approach is utilized. Elaborate on the steps that would be taken in your hypothetical response scenario.

An adaptive approach to Hurricane Katrina would involve emergency response that would include evacuating victims and saving property (Elledge et al, 2007). This would be done by both ground rescue missions and airlifting. The best model to adopt would be the network model. Unlike the bureaucratic model, it is less prone to operational errors and it is more reliable (Zhong & Low, 2009). It is flexible and would be effective in disaster management. An adaptive management response to Hurricane Katrina would involve several steps. They include making a decision based on results of past storms, using feedback to develop new response strategies, monitoring the effectiveness of rescue methods, embracing risk to improve understanding, and changing evacuation methods based on effectiveness and objectives.

What management approach would you recommend for a hurricane disaster (such as Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Irene)? Why?

The best management approach for hurricane disasters would be the network model approach. Hurricane disasters are usually emergency events that require emergency responses (Zhong & Low, 2009). The network model has a direct chain of command that does not involve reliance on the decisions of leaders. Also, it enhances quick information sharing that would be necessary during disasters. Flexibility is one of the requirements of rescue missions during disasters (Kapucu et al, 2010). The network model is an effective management approach that can be applied during hurricane disasters. During a hurricane disaster, evacuation and rescue methods are chosen based on experiences from past similar disasters (Bharosa et al, 2010). In past years, hurricane disasters have caused great havoc. Through a network model, methods used during past disasters could be improved or replaced to ensure the efficiency of rescue methods (Kapucu et al, 2010). Hurricane disasters require flexible rescue strategies that necessitate fast decision-making processes. The bureaucratic approach cannot fit a hurricane disaster because leaders make all decisions and communication is ineffective. Communication is an important aspect of responding to disasters (Born et al, 2007). The network model involves fast communication, which is necessary during rescue missions.

References

Bharosa, N., Lee, J., and Janssen, M. (2010). Challenges and Obstacles in sharing and Coordinating information during Multi-agency Disaster Response: Propositions from field exercises. Information Systems Frontiers, 12(1), 49-65.

Born, C., Briggs, S., Ciraulo, D., Frykberg, E., Hammond, J., Hirshberg, A., and O’Neill, P. (2007). Disasters and mass casualties: General principles of response and management. The Journal of the American Academy Of Orthopedic Surgeons, 15(7), 388-396.

Elledge, B. L., Boatright, D. T., Woodson, P., Clinkenbeard, R. E., and Brand, M. W. (2007). Learning from Katrina: Environmental health observations from the SWCPHP Response Team in Houston. Journal of Environmental Health, 70(2), 22-6.

Kapucu, N., Arslan, T., & Demiroz, F. (2010). Collaborative emergency management and national emergency management network. Disaster Prevention and Management, 19(4), 452-468.

Wise, C. (2006). Organizing for homeland security after Katrina: Is adaptive Management what is missing? Public Administration Review, 66(3).

Zhong, Y., & Low, S. (2009). Managing crisis response communication in Construction projects – from a complexity perspective. Disaster Prevention and Management, 18(3), 270-282.