Category: El Nino

This assay is based on El Nino as a frequent event, the impacts El Nino attributes on South African economy, food security, farm practices and labour relations. It also includes what global warming is, its causes and difference between global warming and climate change. Furthermore, discuss why global warming and climate change effects serve on developing countries.

According to Accuweather (2019), El-Nino is a routine climate pattern that occurs when the sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean rise above normal level for a long period of time. El Nino can also be described as an unusual warming of the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean which we can name the ‘warm phase’ of a phenomenon called El Nino-Southern oscillation.

The Pacific Ocean must be warmer than usual which depends on the atmospheric pressure and warm winds blowing over the ocean. The easterly trade winds lose momentum or strength, then turn into westerlies. According to Petersen et.al. (2017:135) this allows the warm water to move irregularly and causes the upwelling of cooler water from deep in the ocean. This reverses the ocean currents along the equator. This also allows moisture-rich air to rise and develop into rainstorms which may result in floods or drought in certain areas. El Nino requires warm water on the Pacific Ocean, atmospheric pressure, trade winds and the rise of moist air to occur.

The El Nino event increases the risk of having heavy rainfall which result in floods and in some places because of reduced rain this result in drought. This does affect the South African economy, food security and labour relations. This type of even can induce dry conditions and decrease water table, raising concerns over water availability. Crops need water and during cropping season, less water made it difficult for farmers to produce goods in time and this resulted is food inflation. Due to dry conditions brought by El Nino some farmers who are involved in mixed farming had a greater challenge because their live stocks also developed certain diseases and could no longer sell then stock without treating them which is expensive and this left most farmers bankrupt and in deep debts. More problems occurred some farm owners had to fire some farm workers because of the debts they had to pay. After El Nino period the South African economy suffers as most farmers lose their jobs and the government gets strained as it must support farm owners financially to provide employment. In some places in South Africa they experienced heavy rain which contributed into creating floods. These floods ruin the infrastructure that would have to be fixed by the government. Some floods wash away crops and fertilizers which end up in rivers and lakes. If the fertilizers end in rivers and lakes this causes eutrophication which makes the aquatic life vulnerable and those farmers involved in marine agriculture cannot sell the fishes and other aquatic animals. According to the journal of sustainable development (2017), South African economy mostly depends on agriculture and resources that are extracted from underground, during El Nino period it becomes difficult for workers to produce goods and sell them in good quality, and this decreases the economy and leads to a lot of unemployment and no food security.

Global warming is the average atmospheric temperature increase on earth, occurs when CO2, pollutants and other greenhouse gases collect in the atmosphere and absorbs excess sunlight and solar radiation. These pollutants and greenhouse gases can trap heat from escaping the atmosphere and this causes the planet’s heat to increase even more, this is well known as greenhouse effect (Wired, 2018: par. 2).

According to Schar & Jendritzky (2004) there is always a risk of hot summers by just observing the emissions of greenhouse gases and using the comparison of observed summer temperatures to whether they are man-made warming or natural warming, while Climate change is created by burning fossil fuels and producing CFCs which add heat to the earth’s atmosphere because they also contain carbon dioxide that is also produced during greenhouse emissions and a is the average weather for a place that occurs at a place over seasons. The climate change is mostly caused by the carbon dioxide and methane. Methane is release from burning fuels and carbon dioxide has natural sources such as decomposition and animal respiration. Deforestation also contributes as one of the causes of climate change because of the reduced amount of plant life available was supposed to turn carbon dioxide into oxygen.

Most developing countries do not have necessary equipment to warn them about upcoming climate change or global warming because these equipment is expensive and because they are major greenhouse gases emitters the countries lack finance to buy clean technology that will adapt to reduce global warming nor climate change. Global warming and climate change serve on developing countries because of various reasons. According to Nancy Bindell, she states that poor people in developing countries feel the impact because of a vulnerable geography and being unable to cope with the damage caused by severe weather patterns. Already some developing countries struggle with access to water, after these weather patterns the people who live in such places are left without necessities and this threatens their live hood. Furthermore, those in developing countries who depend on natural resources for food and income suffer the effects of such phenomenon.

What is La Nina? La Nina originates from Spanish with the meaning ‘small girl’ refer to a phenomenon that describes cooler than normal ocean surface temperatures in the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean; regions close to the equator off the west coast of South America. La Nina is considered to be opposite or counterpart to El Nino. It is one part of the larger and naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon known as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation or ENSO cycle.

ENSO is series of linked weather and ocean related phenomena, characterized by changes in atmospheric pressure and unusually warm (El Nino) and cool (La Nina) sea surface temperatures. In the past, La Nina also has been called as ‘anti-El Nino’ and ‘El Viejo’ which means the old man in Spanish. La Nina occurs when the easterly trade winds get stronger and blow more warm water west allowing cold water below the sea surface to push towards the top near the South American coast to replace the warm water. A build up of cooler than normal waters in the tropical Pacific, the area of the Pacific Ocean between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn caused La Nina. Upwelling process which is unusually strong eastward moving trade winds and ocean currents bring cold water to the surface can cause a drastic drop in sea surface temperature. Water in the equatorial regions follow the patterns of the trade winds. Surface currents are then formed from the winds that always blow from high pressure areas to low pressure areas.

The winds will move faster from high to low pressure if gradient difference in pressure is steeper. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Pacific Ocean tend to be lower between 3 to 5 degrees Celsius than the normal temperatures during La Nina period. These sea surface temperature importance lies in the fact that largely dictate where tropical thunderstorm develop and be the most persistent that thrive over warm ocean waters. Warmest ocean waters are confined to the western equatorial pacific region during La Nina events and this is the preferred placement for tropical thunderstorms when the Northern Hemisphere cold season. These thunderstorms considered as a ‘bridge’ between atmosphere and the ocean. When develop, these thunderstorms induce low pressure within the western pacific region and meanwhile high pressure sets up across the eastern equatorial pacific that leads to stronger easterly trade winds. These strong trade winds help reinforce the sea surface temperature pattern by pushing the warm water west and enhance the strength of cool eastern pacific water due to upwelling.

La Nina conditions typically last from 9 to 12 months up to 2 years and recur every 3 to 7 years. La Nina sometimes follows El Nino although they occur at asymmetrical intervals of approximately 2 to 7 years. Both La Nina and El Nino tend to develop from March to June during the Northern Hemisphere spring, peak from November to February during late fall and winter then weaken when the following spring into summer which is March to June. Scientists collect data about La Nina using a number of technologies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates a network of buoys that measure sea surface temperature, air temperature, currents, winds and humidity where the buoys transmit data to researchers and meteorologists daily. Scientists using the buoy data in conjunction with visual information received from the satellite.

Affects of La Nina to the environment are increased rainfall, catastrophic floods, affects the climate patterns, affects weather cycles, drier than normal conditions and increased commercial fishing. When the La Nina phase, air pressure across the western Pacific less than average and this low pressure zones contribute increased rainfall in the Southeast parts of the world. Increased rainfall benefit the Southeast countries in Asia such as Bangladesh and India in term of agricultural purposes. Rainier than normal conditions also associated with La Nina events over Southeastern Africa and northern Brazil. Catastrophic floods in Queensland, Australia Drier than normal conditions. Catastrophic floods in some parts of the world cause by extreme La Nina events. Worst floods experienced in Queensland, Australia in 2010 because of the strong La Nina events. Over 10,000 people were displaced and forced to evacuate then it was estimated that over $2 billion worth of property were lost in this disastrous flood. Bolivia also experienced catastrophic flood that result in massive loss of lives and property.

Instead of affects the rainfall patterns and atmospheric pressure, La Nina also affect the global atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric circulation describe as the large scale air movement together with the ocean currents that distributes thermal energy to earth surface. These changes are main sources of variability in climate patterns worldwide. During typical La Nina event, Montana’s spring known to be cooler and wetter.

La Nina associated with cooler temperature affect the Canadian weather, affects the British Columbian west coast, the Prairie Province through to Ontario. The different weather cycles affect Canadian agricultural sector because farmers need to wait the snow to melt before they can plant crops. Beside that, wildlife also had to adapt to extreme condition cause by different weather cycles. Parts of southern Canada receive all manner of high precipitation and more snow than usual received by the Southern British Columbia during La Nina. Higher than normal pressure over the eastern and central Pacific cause by La Nina leads to decreased cloud formation, subsequently reduced rainfall in particular region. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, lowland region of South America, the Gulf Coast of United States of America and also across equatorial East Africa from December to February.

This period can be shorter or longer depend to severity of La Nina. La Nina can be unpredictable and irregular as recently the climate is unpredictable. Some areas expected to be drier conditions but experience rainfall. Southern California can run drier than normal throughout the wet season that leading to more drought conditions when experience the moderate to strong La Nina.

During La Nina, high fishing season for the fishermen in Peru when changes in temperatures increased the presence of fish along the coast line that contribute to increased commercial fishing. The waters are a little warmer and the winds come along with fish food attracts more fish to the surface. It is easier for the fishermen to catch plenty of fish and in different types. Same situation also for fishing industry of western South America when upwelling brings cold and waters rich with nutrient like plankton to the surface. This will attract the fish and crustaceans also high level predators such as sea bass and prey on the crustaceans. La Nina refers to the climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface ocean waters along the tropical west coast of south America. Persistent colder than normal sea surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. La Nina also is part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

We can conclude that the effects of La Nina experienced globally like catastrophic floods, hurricanes and cyclones in countries on the western part of the Pacific. Bushfires and drought along the west coast of the USA and East Africa. Agricultural sector also affected in term of shortage in production when farms affected and crops cannot be produced as expected.

El Nino is a meteorological phenomenon on the coast of Latin America. Yet when it turns to harsh, then it has effects throughout the Pacific Ocean and its related areas. It is needless to say that El Nino also affects Southern California. In this report, this information will be provided in order for people to easily understand El Nino: history of El Nino, El Nino’s process, its impact on Southern California, and the U.S. public system against El Nino.

Old fishermen in Latin America noticed that a certain phenomenon occurs in the ocean. They named this phenomenon “El Nino” meaning a little boy, or child of Christ in Spanish because it was observed during Christmas season. In southern California, El Nino has officially affected areas during the late 20 century. The most powerful El Nino in the 20th century was during 1997-1998. It was not only recorded as a critical El Nino in Southern, but also it was recorded as a worldwide critical El Nino. El Nino is observed annually on the coast of Ecuador and Peru during Christmas time trade wind disappears and a warm current appears. Most of time, it only lasts a few weeks to a month. But, every 2-7 years (some say 3-7 years) it lasts many months, or sometimes it lasts a year. These big El Ninos cause worldwide economic and atmospheric consequences.

El Nino itself is not a big deal because it is a Christmas routine on the coast of South America. Nevertheless, the reason that El Nino is considered an important issue is not only because it influences the world nature, but it also strongly affects the civilization of human beings. Also, most people think the cause of El Nino is global warming. However, meteorologists and other scientists can not prove its relationship to global warming yet. It is still under investigation. In the last El Nino that happened in 1997-1998, the fish population of the ocean near Southern California decreased due to a loss of nutrients that feed fish. It was one of the effects of El Nino. It cannot bring sea nutrients out of deep sea. Because of this decrease, sea lions San Miguel island near the Southern California coast suffered from lack of their foods. Also, hurricanes wreaked havoc on both southern California and other parts of California. In addition, snow and ice hit mountains near Los Angeles. Some places were under water; many car accidents were also reported due to blinding rain. This serious damage finally forced federal government and state government to strengthen the public emergency system and current weather observation system.

There are several agencies for El Nino in California. Most agencies are for emergency situations, but some agencies such as the California Resources Agency (CRA) provide all the current information on El Nino. However, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under United Stated Department of Commerce takes charge of El Nino observation, prediction, and warning. They set several observatories on the coast of Southern California and other areas to observe current meteorological phenomenon.

El Nino is one of best known meteorological phenomenon to the people in the United States and other nations that are located in the Pacific Ocean. No body knows why El Nino occurs, even scientists. Although scientists are still investigating to discover why El Nino occurs, it may not be found for long time. El Nino, that has great power to influence the world, is not a match to its name (remember it means “little boy”). Many people think it is bad for the world, but most meteorologists have no doubt that it is good for the world. El Nino affects human’s life in accordance with its name (remember it also means child of Christ).

Amidst a change in food demand patterns in emerging economies such as China and India leading to an increase in the consumption of fish (Gandhi and Zhou 2014) hand in hand with growing concerns on feeding World population and climate change, not only supply and distribution of food becomes more important, but also the availability of the inputs involved in aquaculture. Under this idea, one of the main inputs in the diets involved in the production of farmed fish is fishmeal. Its relevance rotates on the fact that fishmeal increases feed intake because of its attributes of high palatability and high amounts of amino acids helping in the rapid adjustment of fish production (Jackson 2006). In 2013, world fishmeal production reached the 4,940,000 metric tons (MT) being Peru the major producer and exporter with 1,115,000 MT produced and 849,000 MT exported only followed by China with 560,000 MT produced and by Chile with 236,000 MT exported (SEAFISH 2016). Only behind gold, copper, and oil, Peruvian fishmeal represents their fourth largest export generating more than 13,000 jobs in the processing stage and foreign currency income (Nolte 2017; Christensen et al. 2014).

Since November 2014 to April 2016, the Peruvian fishmeal industry was affected by an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event dropping its production by 24% and its exports by 17% (SEAFISH 2016). From 2009, the Peruvian government has established measures like Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQs) and fishing seasons depending on the availability of biomass in order to reduce the impacts of ENSO on its fisheries and a subsequent overfishing (Tveteras, Paredes, and Peña-Torres 2011). Despite the government efforts, some companies have to leave the market when an ENSO event is present, and as a consequence, people lose their jobs.

With concentration indicators such as the Four-Firm Concentration Ratio (CR4) and the Herfindhal-Hirschman Index (HHI) demonstrating that the Peruvian fishmeal exports are becoming more concentrated over time, producers and other stakeholders are forced to analyze the shocks that make some firms leave the industry in order to preserve its disintegration. Furthermore, patterns show that during the adversities brought by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the industry becomes more concentrated, occurring the opposite when ENSO is not present. Due to a reduction in the anchovy landings caused by ENSO, some firms are not able to survive hence making the market more concentrated, and leaving some market share available for those who were resilient enough to survive the shock. Moreover, ENSO has affected Peruvian fisheries for 9 different times since 1980 thus changing the market concentration significantly during those periods. This important weather event leads us to investigate the resilience of some firms to the shocks that ENSO brings, and the factors that make them more resilient.

Resilience is a term that is being applied in different industries to refer to the ability of firms and the industry as a whole to recover from events that cause some disturbances to the system as well as the risk management strategies applied in order to avoid or reduce losses (Rose 2007; Rose and Liao 2005). In fact, it is well known that industries and firms in them suffer from inevitable shocks that alter their performance, and those who have adapted through different measures are considered to be resilient establishments surviving to the shock or taken less time to recover (Jüttner and Maklan 2011; Lindbloom, Shanoyan, and Griffin 2017). The shocks that ENSO causes are not new to the fishmeal industry and to this day they continue to change to counteract them. These adaptations include opening more processing facilities, increasing fishing fleet size, and obtaining biological assets. Existing studies have focused on the effects of ENSO on fishmeal prices and other commodities as well as the changes in price ratios between fishmeal and substitutes such as soybean meal (Ubilava 2014, 2017) without. Although the resilience framework has been widely used in different scopes such as automotive industry, urban infrastructure, and farm resilience (Barroso et al. 2015; Carvalho et al. 2011; Güller et al. 2015; Pant, Barker, and Zobel 2014; Sheffi 2005; Tierney and Bruneau 2007; Zobel 2010; Lindbloom, Shanoyan, and Griffin 2017), literature on the resilience framework in fisheries is still underdeveloped. The purpose of this paper is to fill the gap in the literature by identifying risk management strategies of Peruvian fishmeal exporters that makes them more resilient to ENSO.

Being used in different industries, the conceptual framework is the resilience triangle where shocks are plotted in a coordinate plane (Sheffi 2005; Tierney and Bruneau 2007; Barroso et al. 2015; Lindbloom, Shanoyan, and Griffin 2017). The vertical axis represents the performance measure to be used and the horizontal axis is the time during the shocks. Under this premise, Lindbloom et. al. (2017) indicated it consists of three point: (A) The level of performance before being affected by a shock, (B) the level of performance after being affect by a shock, and (C) level of performance after recovering from the shock.

In order to calculate resilience of fishmeal exporting industry, two ENSO events were chosen: i) July 09 – April 2010, and ii) November 2014 – April 2016. Two datasets were used to make the analysis. The first data set was obtained from ADUANET which is the Peruvian Customs Agency, Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas y de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT), official database that reports up to date monthly exports of fishmeal from 165 firms. In addition, data from the National Economic Survey was gathered from the Peruvian Statistics Institute, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), on fleet size, financial declarations, days worked during the year, and locations from 194 firms. A resilience index was calculated on the industry and from firms i, during period t, in a similar way as Barroso 2015 and Lindbloom 2017:

• Where is the resilience index value for Exporter, is the volume exports at time of Exporter, is the time period before the shock, and is the time when recovered from shock.
• After obtaining each individual’s resilience, an econometric model is defined to examine the effect that different factors have on fishmeal exporter’s resilience.

The resilience triangle together with the compilation of data will make not only a great contribution to risk management strategies in fisheries, but also help in the developing of more sustainable policies for marine assets. Preliminary descriptive statistics show a significant reduction in fishmeal exports per firm during both shocks. In addition, only the firms with more locations around the country were able to stay in business during the two periods. Finally, this paper will contribute on giving the resilience triangle a new approach and make smaller fisheries learn from other resilient measures taken by larger firms in order to survive to the effects of ENSO and maintain competitiveness. In light of recent changes in food demand patterns and the growing concerns for climate change, this paper has the potential to generate interesting discussion among the WAEA audience.

The terms El Niño and La Niña talk over with the periodic changes within the Pacific ocean surface temperatures that impact the weather. close to the equator, the western pacific surface ocean is generally terribly heat and therefore the Japanese Pacific is incredibly cool. This keeps the coastal southern comparatively dry. This ‘normal’ pattern of ocean surface temperature is noncontinuous sporadically by El Niño and La Niña, present climate phenomena that occur roughly each 3-7 years. El Nino is thought to be the nice and cozy section and La Niña the cold section usually last 9-12 months every however in rare cases last over multiple years.

El Niño is that the heat section of the El Niño-southern oscillation and is related to a band of heat ocean water that develops within the central and eastern equatorial pacific. High gas pressure is within the western pacific and low gas pressure within the japanese pacific. The cycle begins once heat water within the western tropical Pacific shifts eastward on the equator towards the coast of South America. El Niño causes a periodic weakening of the typically steady, east to west trade patterns close to the surface of the tropic pacific. The result of the weakening is that the ocean surface temperature of the pacific gets hotter than usual for AN extended amount of your time. This warming of the ocean creates a domino-effect and this typically triggers or intensifies weather extremes everywhere the globe. The El Niño Southern Oscillation has upgraded its forecast to a seventieth probability of the intense weather system touching the hemisphere. This is often triple the traditional probability and falls in line with the reserves weather services predictions. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) declared a regional drought disaster thanks to the el Niño result. Provinces might presently be at the mercy of water shortages.

The La Niña could be a climate pattern outlined as a cooling of the water within the equatorial pacific, that happens at irregular intervals, and is related to widespread changes in weather patterns complementary to those of el Niño, however less intensive and damaging in their effects. La Niña is caused by a build-up of cooler-than-normal waters within the tropical pacific. Remarkably sturdy, eastward-moving trade winds and ocean currents bring this cold water to the surface, a method referred tochanges in weather patterns complementary to those of el Niño, however less intensive and damaging in their effects. La Niña is caused by a build-up of cooler-than-normal waters within the tropical pacific. Remarkably sturdy, eastward-moving trade winds and ocean currents bring this cold water to the surface, a method referred to as upwelling. Upwelling will cause a forceful drop by sea-surface temperature. La Niña usually brings extreme weather to constant regions most plagued by el Niño. La Niña causes opposite conditions to those related to El Niño. La Niña impacts the world climate and disrupts traditional weather patterns, that as a result will result in intense storms in some places and droughts in others. In southern Africa, the la Niña ends up in wetter-than-normal conditions from December-Feb, and drier-than-normal conditions over equatorial geographic area over constant amount.

El Niño development led to the foremost noticeable terrible season in thirty five years for quite an little bit of southern Africa. Within the eight most affected countries that area unit (Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, African country and Zimbabwe), AN expected sixteen.1 million people would require facilitate between December 2016 and march 2017, as well as somewhere within the vary of five million kids World Health Organization required grim compassionate support. Southern Africa keeps on encountering to pursue on effects of El Niño, dry spell and therefore the La Niña floods. Intense nourishment unsteadily has began to improve owing to improved rains crosswise over southern Africa. Despite the actual fact that the gather has improved, the waiting result of El Niño and La Niña, has contributed any to weakness for kids, pockets of high lack of healthy sustenance in Zimbabwe and southern Madagascar, progressing faculty dropout and kit insurance considerations. The loss of financial gain brought by the dry spell has rendered varied weak gatherings less able to get to basic administrations vital to encourage satisfactory restoration from the result of season.

Early Gregorian calendar month figures demonstrate that La Niña is perhaps about to produce amid the start of the 2016/17 rural season (October– April). In southern Africa, La Niña can normally be connected with higher than expected precipitation, albeit starting model figures suggest that precipitation are shut traditional for October– December. The semitropic Indian Ocean Dipole marvel impacts El Niño and La Niña’s result on precipitation in southern Africa.

Should precipitation be higher than expected, it’s likely to accelerate the recovery of grazing land and result in higher than expected yield creation for the mid-year reap (April– July). this might likewise improve work openings and pay levels for family units, at the present encountering the foremost passing terrible El Niño-initiated season in thirty five years. In any case, constructive outcomes of los angeles Niña on harvest generation would simply lighten sustenance frailty from Feb 2017. Moreover, over the highest precipitation expands the danger of confined flooding, the danger of seed misfortune, crop harm, animals’ dullness and mortality, and foundation hurt. there’s to boot AN improved likelihood of violent winds shaping within the Mozambique Channel, with connected potential landfall and flooding over the realm.

At present, nearly forty million people area unit nourishment shaky, as well as twenty three million World Health Organization would like earnest compassionate facilitate. Roughly 2.7 million youngsters face extreme intense sick health. Sustenance instability is relied upon to crest amid the Oct 2016 to March 2017 lean season. husbandry creation has been disabled and much an outsized portion of 1,000,000 dry spell connected domesticated animal’s passing’s are accounted for whereas water sources and provides area unit seriously drained. Work openings have likewise been seriously influenced and poor cultivating family units area unit unfit to satisfy their sustenance conditions owing to strained pay exploit openings. The season has intense existing vulnerabilities, transportation regarding serious sustenance deficiencies, particularly in Republic of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Swaziland, and African nation.