Effects of Trade War on Global Politics

World War III has started! We have had World War (WW) I and WW II. The word “war” brings to mind machine guns, bombs and a battlefield. However, this is 21st century and rather than arms as the tool of war, trade is. This is because the nature of the world is one that shows that countries are interdependent as states are connected to each other and relations between two states can greatly affect the relation that exists among other countries.

From the Opium Wars to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to Chicken wars to the Pasta wars as well as the Banana wars, a golden thread is to be seen; the historical genealogy of Trade wars. This drives home the point that trade war is indeed not a recent development.

Trade war begins whenever a nation makes an attempt to protect its domestic industry by putting extra tariff or quota on imported good or if one country increases tariffs and the other country retaliates in the same manner.

Global politics concerns the relations between different actors in the world, the characteristics of those relations, and their consequences. Global politics, also commonly referred to as international politics, world politics, or international relation, includes questions of international economics (for example, why and how do states enter into trading agreement with one another, and how is wealth distributed in the world?).

It is important to note that the principal actors in global politics are nation-states, but they are not the only actors as the international system consists of nation-states, international organizations, and private actors.

It has been earlier stated that states are interdependent and one of the major ways nations interact is through trade, this explains how a conflict between two nations is capable of affecting global politics.

Furthermore, this interdependence has increasingly connected the fortunes of citizens around the world, and a decision by one state to alter its trading practices, devalue its currency, or increase its minimum wage, for example, can have dramatic consequences on the economies of other states.

An African proverb states that when elephants fight, the grass suffers; in trade wars, this analogy comes to play as the fighting elephants, other elephants and the grass suffer. In recent times, the trade wars going on is between the United States of America (US) and China; and Japan and Korea.

In the case of US and China, they are caught in this race of imposing tariffs on each other. The US slaps a high tariff on certain products and China retaliates and this is huge because it is multiple industries across multiple markets. For a long time, there have been frustrations that past American administrations had with the Chinese. Upon the election of Donald Trump, an investigation of China’s economic practices started by the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

In July 2018, after the investigation, America imposed tariffs of 25% on $34bn worth of Chinese products and this almost doubled the average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 3.8% to 6.7%. But with every increase from America, came an increase from China. China has imposed really high tariffs on American exports of soybeans and this is a huge product that farmers in Iowa and across the Midwest grow only to sell to China and America has also imposed restrictions on some Chinese firms especially the ones in the tech industry and specifically over one Chinese company, Huawei.

Also, there is a trade war between Japan and Korea and the real bone of contention goes way back in time and beyond trade. In July 2019, Tokyo added trade restrictions on Korean companies purchasing three chemicals made in Japan. Japan produces up to 90% of the world’s supply of these chemicals which are used in making semi-conductors and display screens. Semi-conductors are critical for making major components of today’s electronic products like smartphones and this makes the chemical vital to South Korea’s economy which is home to conduct for giants; Samsung electronics and SK Hynix. Only a month after tightening trade exports to South Korea, Tokyo removed South Korea from its white list. Soon after, Seoul did the same thing. The move affects more than 1,000 goods from South Korea.

In the case of Japan and South Korea, the effects are still witnessed by both countries. However, the global economy is likely to be affected because both countries are integral to the world economy and disruptions will have spillovers that will go beyond the two antagonists. The most immediate threat is to the global tech supply chain. From a global perspective, South Korea semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, which supply 60% of the world’s memory chips, have warned that they can’t rule out production disruption if the Japanese export restrictions remain in place. Any delay to supply could cause serious disruption to global tech supply chains and significantly impact other tech giants, like Apple and Huawei, who use memory chips and displays from Samsung.

Outright trade war between the world’s two largest economies would be devastating to the working people of both countries, as well as destructive to the future of the entire world economy. The costs of conflict between China and the US far outweigh the current causes of dispute in their economic relationship. These costs would be both direct, in terms of short-term losses of growth and employment, and indirect, in terms of long-term damage to the world trading system, diminishing investment and efficiency.

Other countries are hit indirectly through weaker demand for their own exports, either through supply chains or in response to weaker global economic growth. These effects outweigh any potential gains from trade diversion to avoid tariffs. In the protectionism scenario, the level of global real GDP is reduced by 0.8% in 2019, and 1.4% in 2020.

Post-War Psychological Impact

Alexander C. McFarlane’s ‘The Impact of War on Mental Health: Lest We Forget’ is an article that uses the statistics and examples driven language to describe a sense of psychological trauma of people after the war. This article mainly describes the impact of war on mental health. In war, there are countless soldiers sacrificed, countless victims die of diseases and infections, the state is not functioning properly, and residents cannot live normally. The most terrible thing is that veterans and residents of the country after the war may be psychologically irreparable. Most of the mental illnesses related to war are chronic diseases. I strongly believe that wars have had an important part in psychiatric history in a number of ways and these invisible wounds of war have been afflicting veterans and their families (McFarlane, 2015) and I couldn’t agree more.

A point I strongly agree with comes from this article is: “The violence associated with PTSD impacts on veterans’ families, as well as on the broader society”. Healthy psychology is an important condition for a person to develop in an all-round way, and is also the basis for harmonious family and social stability. About one-third of the 100,000 veterans in the United State are diagnosed with mental illness or psychosocial disorders – such as homelessness and marital problems, including domestic violence. More than 56% suffer from multiple diseases (Claudia, 2007). Post-war trauma has an enormous impact on individuals and society. For instance, posttraumatic stress disorder is a mental health problem that some people develop after experiencing or witnessing a life-threatening event, like combat, a natural disaster, a car accident, or sexual assault (National Center for PTSD). It is a very common post-war mental illness. Trauma survivors with PTSD may have trouble with their close family relationships or friendships. In turn, these reactions affect the people around the victim, and the people around them continue to influence the people around them (Rebecca, 2016) just like an infinite loop of butterfly effects. Meanwhile, according to another research that there point to a dysregulation of aggressive and violent behavior that may be a consequence of trauma and PTSD. These data indicate that more effective PTSD screening and treatment may help to reduce urban violence (Gillikin, Habib, Evces, Bradley, Ressler, & Sanders, 2016). Those statistics presented that the impact of war is not only personal, but also psychological and social.

Another point I strongly agree with in this easy is: “Many warriors have difficulty obtaining claims for mental illness, and the chances of death from mental illness and the chance of acquiring a chronic disease are very high after the war”. According to a study, the cost of major depressive disorder (MDD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) treatment for each military service member every two years is about $33,792-$52,939 (Callahan, 2010). This is a high cost for both normal families and veterans. At the same time, not only the cost of treating PTSD or MDD, but also other extra costs. For instance, a veteran is in poor health, and the family may need to spend money to hire a caregiver. The situation faced by this veteran family is particularly difficult. In addition to preventing veterans from being stimulated and helping them cope with their own mental stress, they also have to cope with all the expenses of daily life, especially young veterans. Other statistics show that there are 15% of patients will relapse after one to two years or even longer after the cure (Lambkin, 2016). There is a study that suggest Vietnam veterans with PTSD may be at increased risk of death from multiple causes (Boscarino, 2006). Soldiers involved in the war are younger, and young people are at a developmental stage both physically and psychologically. War is a traumatic pressure and a major environmental challenge. The individual’s physical and mental health of the soldiers after the war is also at risk. Seriously, it may occur for a long time after the war, and the incubation period of symptoms may last for years or even decades (Auxéméry, 2012). Those statistics presented that the impact of war is not only a problem for the family’s economic finances, but the development of family life in the later period has also caused great pressure.

In summary, post-war psychological trauma is very important and has a lot of impact. We must not only establish some psychologically repaired hospitals, but also improve the quality of post-war psychological construction. We need to do our best to solve these problems, and suggest more capable people and organizations to pay attention to these victims. The world will avoid war and let more people suffering from mental illness recover.

For the psychological impact of war, the society should make some decisions and implement them in society. The government should focus on improving service needs, such as improving the treatment of veterans and their families. On the one hand, we should give the victim more understanding and acceptance. Although some care and treatment have progressed, the recurrence rate of the victims is still high. On the other hand, the ultimate method of prevention is to stop war. The impact of war on human psychology is long-term and indelible. This is a tragic desire to be inconsistent with human nature. Those aspects to solve the psychological damage to the mental health, and reduce these painful and uncontrollable risks.