Category: Demography

Introduction

When it comes to discussing the issue of demographic importance, it often proves crucially important to be able to assess it from the multidisciplinary perspective. The reason for this is quite apparent – such an issue most commonly presupposes that there are a number of different qualitative dimensions to it and that the interrelationship between them has a strong effect of defining the discursive implications of what is being discussed. The issue of the Canadian population’s rapid aging will come as a perfect example, in this respect, “Canada’s population is getting older. Statistics Canada estimates that by 2031 there will be nine million persons over the age of 65, accounting for 25 percent of the population” (Ries, 2010, p. 577).

Even though it represents a commonplace practice among many social scientists to refer to the mentioned demographic trend in terms of a thing-in-itself (hence, the sheer ineffectiveness of the governmental ‘mechanistic’ approaches to tackling it), there are many reasons to believe that it is much more systemically complex than most people assume. That is, the issue of ‘Canada’s aging’ is closely interconnected with other qualitative aspects of contemporary Canadian living, concerned with the government’s continual endorsement of the policy of multiculturalism and affected by the overall socio-economic situation in the West, as well as by the essence of the current geopolitical dynamics on the planet. In my paper, I will aim to substantiate the validity of this suggestion at length while promoting the idea that for the issue to be effectively addressed, those in charge of designing social policies in this country must be capable of indulging in the dialectical (cause-effect) reasoning and have a basic understanding of how the Darwinian laws of evolution affect the functioning of human societies.

Analysis of the demographic issue

As it was implied in the Introduction, there is indeed much rationale for Canadians (regardless of their age) to worry about the mentioned demographic trend – especially given the fact that there is a clearly identifiable exponential momentum to it. As Guillemette and Robson (2009) noted, “The ratio of the population age 65 and over to the population of traditional working age (18-64) … will rise to 46 percent in 2050” (p. 1). After all, there can be only a few doubts that the process of Canadian population’s aging will ultimately result in undermining the quality of living standards in this country, “The increase in age-related expenditures will put significant pressures on public finances” (Guillemette & Robson, 2009, p. 2).

What is even more alarming, in this regard, is that the upswing of such expenditures will take place alongside the process of the country’s economy becoming increasingly stagnant, due to the ongoing worldwide recession (which has no end in sight) and the would-be triggered (by the population’s aging) shortage of skilled/employable workers. The Federal government does recognize that something needs to be done about the outlined aging issue. However, the methods it proposes should be deployed within the context of addressing the situation do not seem well thought out, to say the least, “The challenges of an aging Canadian society will require continued efforts to improve health, well-being, and independence in later life… (and) strengthen the supportive environments within communities” (Canada’s Aging Population, 2010, para. 8).

The suggested course of action, however, does not specify how the creation of these ‘supportive environments’ is going to be funded, especially given the fact that the very process of ‘Canada’s aging’ presupposes that as time goes on, there will be fewer and fewer fully employed taxpayers left in this country (in charge of taking care of the growing population of senior citizens). What is even worse – it never occurred to whoever came up with the plan that if anything, its implementation will only contribute towards the problem. This, of course, raises a certain concern about whether the government’s current strategy for managing demographic dynamics within the country has anything to do with the notion of sanity – just as it is being the case with the ‘strategy’ of pouring gas on the fire to extinguish it.

Obviously enough, the chosen demographic issue is not quite as straightforward as it may appear at an initial glance – something that explains why while admitting that there is indeed nothing positive about it, the governmental officials deliberately refrain from specifying how the issue came into being in the first place while going as far as trying to misrepresent the issue’s significance. The reason for this is that when subjected to the analytical inquiry, the phenomenon of population’s aging in Canada will be revealed standing in striking contrast to the provisions of the officially endorsed ideology of multiculturalism, which derives out of the assumption that the particulars of one’s ethnocultural affiliation do not have any effect on the concerned person’s existential mode, reflected by the specifics of his or her behavioral pattern.

This assumption, however, could not be more fallacious – something best illustrated regarding the fact that the percentile rate of old people within a particular population negatively relates to the rate of this population’s fertility. And, as many thematically relevant studies indicate, the ethnocultural factor of influence plays an important role in defining an individual’s taste for ‘baby-making’. Partially, this explains why the phenomenon of ‘Canada’s aging’ has a clearly defined ‘white coloring’ to it, as it is specifically the contemporary descendants of European immigrants to Canada (as well as the newly arrived ones) who appear to have lost much interest in the concerned biological activity. Therefore, it will be discursively appropriate to discuss the issue in racial terms while stressing out that it is specifically the population of Canada’s Whites, which contributes to the problem’s severity more than any other does. Canada is no unique, in this respect – the demographic trend in question can be well observed throughout North America, as well as in the rest of Anglo-Saxon (in the historical sense of this word) countries.

Because of the presumed politically incorrect sounding of such an observation, Statistics Canada makes a deliberate point in trying to withhold as much race-related information about the subject matter, as possible, “The Canadian statistical office does not publish fertility rates by ethnic origin” (Barbieri & Ouellette, 2012, p. 204). Essentially the same applies to most academic publications that tackle the issue of the Canadian population’s aging, like the 2015 textbook Canada’s population in a global context by Frank Trovato. Even though it does contain many valuable insights into what account for the demographic realities in today’s Canada, most of the provided explanations as to what are the actual driving forces behind the process of Canadian society becoming progressively ‘older’ intentionally omit focusing much attention on the relationship between the notions of ethnicity and fertility. According to the author, the phenomenon of ‘Canada’s aging’ is thoroughly natural because Canada happened to be an ‘advanced country’ (Trovato, 2009).

We need to admit that there is a certain logic to such a suggestion. After all, there is indeed a well-observed demographic trend, throughout the world – the poorer a particular group of people happens to be, the more enthusiastic are its members about the prospect of passing their genome to the next generation, especially if the population dwells in the rural area. The reason for this is simple – the more there are children in the rurally-based family, the more likely will it be for the parents to succeed in ensuring their own physical survival because even small kids can be turned into the rather effective agricultural helpers. There are, however, a few inconsistencies to such a point of view. First, the fertility-related behavior of Caucasians in Canada does not seem to be strongly reflected in the particulars of their residential or socioeconomic status. Second, the same applies to the specifics of reproductive behavior, on the part of the representatives of this country’s ethnic minorities – these people continue to exhibit a rather heightened birth rate, even if they belong to the third of the fourth generation of ethnic immigrants, born and raised in large cities. This, of course, calls for a much sounder explanation of the discussed phenomenon. It can be formulated as follows:

The initial waves of European immigrants to Canada (taking place through the 19^th-20^th centuries) used to consist of the predominantly industrious/non-conformist individuals, endowed with a strong sense of communal solidarity. The reason for them to decide to come to Canada had to do with the sheer ideological/religious oppressiveness of European society at the time, which used to result in the natural selection of the ‘biologically minded’ (preoccupied with food, sex, and domination) conformists for social lifting. The mechanics of such a selection are best explained regarding the decimation of Europe’s population by at least one fourth through the 16^th-18^th centuries when Inquisition was at its strongest. Back then, all it would take for a particular individual to get advanced in life was to denounce his or her neighbor as a heretic, visited by the Devil on a continual basis.

The reported person would be burned at stake, with his or her earthly possessions split between the ‘Holy Office’ and the one who did the report. As a result, the latter would be able to improve his/her financial situation – hence, becoming more attractive to the representatives of the opposite gender and consequently more likely to succeed in ensuring the spatial proliferation of its genome. Obviously enough, the subjects of victimization in this regard consisted of the predominantly intellectually advanced and conscientious individuals. Apparently, even if applied to humans, the Darwinian laws of natural selection are absolutely insensitive to the considerations of conventional morality.

The continuation of the social, cultural, and scientific progress, however, is made possible by specifically the nonconformist (even if preoccupied with enrichment) people – such as those who used to be burned at stake during the Dark Ages and who began immigrating to the New World en mass ever since such an option became available to them. This (along with the abundance of land and natural resources) was the main factor that contributed towards making Canada one of the most prosperous countries in the world, even as far back as at the beginning of the 20^th century. Therefore, it is perfectly explainable why the very notion of ‘immigration’ continues to be highly revered by most Canadians on an unconscious level – immigration strengthened the structural integrity of Canadian society.

Ironically enough, the rapid accumulation of national wealth through the first half of the 20^th century was also the reason why as time went on, there were emerging more and more reasons for the descendants of those who came to Canada with the initial waves of immigration to consider becoming conformists. Such a development was predetermined by the objective laws of history – the process of Canada’s industrialization has led to the establishment of many urban centers across the country. And, to be able to attain a social prominence while residing in a large city, one must be willing to adapt to the socially imposed laws and regulations. In its turn, this resulted in causing Canadian citizens (back than overwhelmingly White) to grow increasingly ‘specialized’, in the evolutionary sense of this word. The technology-driven division of labor provided additional momentum to the process.

However, as biologists are well aware of, the representatives of a specialized species can only proliferate for as long as the surrounding environment remains unchanged. With respect to Canada, in general, and its racially homogeneous (and highly ‘specialized’) population, in particular, the drastic environmental change took place through the 20^th century’s early seventies – the historical period associated with the introduction of multiculturalism as the country’s official policy. As Winter (2015) noted, “In 1971, Canada was the first country in the world to implement multiculturalism as a policy aiming at the integration of immigrants” (p. 637).

Ever since then, the demographic fabric of Canadian society began to undergo a qualitative transformation, with the process’s actual effects having proven much different from what White policy-makers expected them to be. Instead of assimilating as the society’s integral part, ethnic immigrants embarked on the creation of their own horizontally structured societies within it. Such an eventual development was predetermined by the fact that, as opposed to what it was the case with European immigrants, the bulk of these people came from the rural areas of the Third World, where social institutions even today remain virtually non-existent – something that presupposed a strongly defined ‘biological mindedness’ of the newly arrived ethnic immigrants.

This provides them with a strong advantage, within the context of how they go about competing with Whites for the same limited resource in the same environmental niche – in full accordance with the Darwinian principle of the ‘survival of the fittest’. This simply could not be otherwise – being endowed with a practical mindset; these people proved very effective at turning what they refer to as the ‘White law’ against its creators. For example, it now became a commonplace practice among many ethnic immigrants in Canada to use the pretext of multiculturalism to continue adhering to the provisions of tribal nationalism of the worst kind, which is utterly inconsistent with the multicultural policy’s original aims. The case of Tamil immigrants (who hate their Sinhalese co-citizens with a passion) illustrates the validity of this statement, “Canadian multiculturalism functions as ‘banal nationalism’ in Canada, as daily practices of tacit nation-building are produced and repeated on a daily basis among Sri Lankan Tamil Canadians” (Amarasingam, Naganathan, & Hyndman, 2016, p. 119).

Formally speaking, the functioning of Canada’s governmental institutions continues to adhere to the principle of euro-centrism. However, the country’s Whites cannot help experiencing the elusive sensation that they are doomed to sustain a defeat while competing with the representatives of Canada’s racial minorities – despite the fact that the former and the latter are equally committed to praising multiculturalism/political correctness in public. As Na and Hample (2016) aptly observed, “Even though most Canadians claim they do not hold racist views, they tend to avoid interactions with members of other racial groups in certain social situations” (p. 196). Consequently, this instills Whites (particularly of the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant stock) with a number of different unconscious anxieties, which have a strongly detrimental effect on these people’s reproductive capacities, as well as on their ability to indulge in the cause-effect reasoning.

In its turn, this causes more and more of them to choose in favor of social escapism as the way of addressing life-challenges – hence, the actual significance of the dramatic upsurge of the so-called ‘gated communities’ across the country. After all, it does not represent much of a secret that the overwhelming majority of residents in such communities consist of middle-aged/elderly Whites, “There is evidence that disproportionately fewer visible minorities, particularly Chinese and East Asians, and those who are Black or Caribbean, are residing in Canada’s gated communities” (Walks, 2014, p. 52). As a rule, these people explain their residential choice by the considerations of prestige. In reality, however, it is specifically their irrational fear of coming face to face with the multicultural street-realties that prompt these individuals to choose in favor of moving to live in the racially secluded ‘gated’ neighborhoods. The Darwinian implication of this trend is apparent because discursively speaking, there is no much difference between decadent Whites residing in Canada’s ‘gated communities’ and trilobites hiding at the ocean’s bottom – both highly specialized ‘life forms’ represent the dead ends of evolution, even though with regard to the former this suggestion is meant to sound rather allegorically.

Conclusion

I believe that what has been said earlier, regarding the actual significance of ‘Canada’s aging’ correlates perfectly well with the paper’s initial thesis – it is namely the objective laws of biological evolution (which apply to the representatives of the Homo Sapiens species as much as they apply to plants and animals) that define the essence of the current demographic dynamics in Canada. It is important to understand that the deployed line of argumentation, in defense of the paper’s thesis, is value-free. At some point back in the history, WASPs have proven themselves more evolutionary fit, as compared to Canada’s Native inhabitants – the development that almost resulted in the total annihilation of the latter, just as it happened to the Native people in Tasmania.

It is rather symptomatic that up until the 20^th century’s sixties, the birth rate among the Canadian Natives used to be even lower than the one featured by today’s Whites. Nowadays, we are witnessing yet another evolutionary development in making, concerned with the process of Canada’s Whites growing increasingly incapable of controlling the environmental niche in which they used to enjoy the undisputed dominance until the introduction of the ‘celebration of diversity’ policy – the rapidly declining birth rate among them is merely one among the process’s numerous societal extrapolations. Because this process is thoroughly objective, value-based interpretations simply do not apply to it.

References

Amarasingam, A., Naganathan, G., & Hyndman, J. (2016). Canadian multiculturalism as banal nationalism: Understanding everyday meanings among Sri Lankan Tamils in Toronto. Canadian Ethnic Studies, 48(2), 119-141.

Barbieri, M., & Ouellette, N. (2012). The demography of Canada and the United States from the 1980s to the 2000s: A summary of changes and a statistical assessment. Population, 67(2), 177-280.

Canada’s Aging Population. (2010). Web.

Guillemette, Y., & Robson, W. (2009). No elixir of youth: Immigration cannot keep Canada young. Backgrounder – C.D.Howe Institute, (96), 1-11.

Na, L., & Hample, D. (2016). Psychological pathways from social integration to health: An examination of different demographic groups in Canada. Social Science & Medicine, 151(2), 196-205.

Ries, N. (2010). Ethics, health research, and Canada’s aging population. Canadian Journal on Aging, 29(4), 577-585.

Trovato, F. (2009). Canada’s population in a global context: An introduction to social demography. Don Mills, Ontario: Oxford University Press.

Walks, A. (2014). Gated communities, neighborhood selection and segregation: The residential preferences and demographics of gated community residents in Canada. TPR: Town Planning Review, 85(1), 39-66.

Winter, E. (2015). Rethinking multiculturalism after its “retreat”: Lessons from Canada. American Behavioral Scientist, 59(6), 637-657.

In four demographic reports (Overview, Trend, Employment, and Population Detail) for zip code 60614, race, gender, age, and class will be the most appropriate way to collapse the data. All the information can easily fit under this category for easy analysis. Additionally, the categorization will make data easy to understand by almost everyone without a lot of struggles in interpreting them. Additionally, the data can easily be presented in statistical tables (Aaker, 2010).

However, looking at the data, Hispanic ethnicity and means of transport were unnecessary. Their use will make the information very large for interpretation and analysis. These variables could have been included in the population and race data, and means of transportation to work respectively could have been collapsed into social status (Creswell & John, 2009).

Family Status data and marital status data can be put collapse under households. The information given by the two data is similar since they all give details of the household population during the census (Michael, & Earl, 2011). The household population information can then be added to the main categories of race, gender, class. Data on means of transportation can be condensed with travel time data. The mean household travel time can be added as a subcategory of means of transport. Finally, all the races should be put together and adjusted under their race, gender, age, and class. A smaller data category is easier to manage and present using charts and graphs (Bearden, Netemeyer, & Haws, 2011).

References

Aaker, D. (2010). Marketing Research. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley.

Bearden, W., Netemeyer, R., & Haws, K. (2011). Handbook of marketing scales: Multi-item measures for marketing and consumer behavior research. Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE.

Creswell, J., & John, W. (2009). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approach. Los Angeles: Sage.

Michael, G., & Earl R. (2011). Basics of Research Methods for Criminal Justice and Criminology. Belmont: Cengage Learning.

Demographic Analysis

From the literature review, it is noted that the increase in juvenile delinquency has resulted to the rising cases of crimes and formation of gangs in various parts of the country. This is a threat to national security and economic development implying that intervention strategies have to be designed to deal with the menace.

Demographic analysis entails the methods that are often employed in measuring the several aspects and dynamics of the population. These methods are specifically utilized in the analysis of human populations, but current researchers may use them in the study of other phenomena affecting humanity.

In the review of the population dynamics discussed in the literature review section, this section of the paper will utilize administrative records in the development of independent estimate of the gangs existing in the country. An estimate of any demographic analysis is considered a consistent measure for reviewing the precision of the census data obtained at any given period.

In this section of the paper, demographic analysis will be used to statistically to analyze the sizes of illegal groups or gangs in the country, their composition, as well as spatial distribution (Preston, Heuveline, & Guillot, 2000). Moreover, it is evident that the features of the illegal groups change over time.

The major ways employed in understanding the sizes and composition of the population includes population change, standardization, bookkeeping, and population composition.

In the given data in the literature review section, it is observed that the distribution of gangs and criminal groups is even implying that all communities are involved in executing illegal activities that harm the economy of the country (DiIulio, 1995). The first groups were Irish, but all major communities residing in the country are currently involved in crime, as Van Ngo (2009) observes.

Regarding the sizes of the gangs, literature review reveals that they are larger, complex, prevalent, and permanent within the community. Additionally, gangs in the country have devised ways through which they survive the security measures put in place. This implies that they are never static, but instead they change with time to suit the current society.

Data obtained from the FBI suggest that the number of criminal gangs is expected to go up and they would be active implying that they will be carrying out criminal activities using all available techniques. The report suggests further that over forty criminal gangs exist in many cities.

While the country had over 40, 0000 criminal gangs in various urban centers in 1990, the number have skyrocketed to over 249,324 in the subsequent years. In 2009, the number reached a record high of 500,000.

This data shows that the number of criminal gangs keeps on increasing each year and their compositions diversify every minute making it difficult for security forces to contain them. Increase in birth rates contributes to the rising number of criminal gangs in the country, as crimes rates were high when the number of individuals aged 13 to 17 was high.

Alternative Solutions to the Problem

Based on the nature of the crimes that the gangs carry out, two major solutions are suggested, one of them being the focused deterrence strategy and the other one is neighborhood watch. Focused deterrence is also referred to as pulling levers policing and is mainly a problem-oriented policing strategy that is based on the deterrence theory.

This type of crime prevention strategy aims at preventing vulnerable groups who are used to punishments and sanctions from committing crime. According to the strategy, the community members are encouraged to confront all criminal gangs or their members and inform them that their behavior will not be accepted in the community.

Since the criminal gangs recruit even the youth in the community, they have to be informed clearly that the criminal justice system, including the police and the courts, will catch up with them and the consequences will not be favorable to them. The strategy is also reinforced by police crackdown on gangs that fail to heed to the communal call to quit crime and violent behavior (Dahlberg, 2008).

If some gang members quit crime and confess to the security agencies, they are rewarded and would be incorporated into the community. If jobs are available, the former members of criminal gangs are given to prevent them from going back to the illegal groups.

Deterrence theory suggests that an individual would most probably quit crime if he or she knows the costs associated with it. In preventing crime, the crime suggests that three factors play an important role, including severity, swiftness, and punishment.

The second solution to preventing crime in the community is the neighbor watch, which is referred to as the block watch as well. The strategy relies on the communal members who are expected to protect each other by offering critical information to the law enforcing agencies in time.

Criminal gangs would often target the residential places since they are likely to commit crimes, such as kidnapping, rape, burglary, and murder. The two techniques of crime prevention have a major impact to the public safety policy in the sense that it allows security agencies to identify the nature of criminal gangs, their composition, prevalence, and sizes.

Viable Model

Several models of crime in the current society, such as developmental, which focuses on early intervention, situational, whose major target is stop opportunities for crime, and criminal justice model that insists on the strengthening of the criminal justice system, including empowering the police, offering more training to the judicial members, and improving the prison services.

However, the causes of crimes or formation of criminal gangs ought to be understood before moving to select an intervention model. In this case, the best intervention model would be the social model since crimes result from frustrations of life, such as lack of basic needs, inadequate jobs, and discrimination based on gender and race. Strengthening relations among individuals in the neighborhood have a role to play in uniting people.

This would definitely reduce crime rates, as individuals will tend to believe that they are one people. If people know each other, the crime rates are likely to reduce hence the major aim of any strategist would be to enhance social capital (Hensley, & Singer, 2004).

Personal Bias and Social/ Ethical Dilemma

The model is mainly affected by the views of the implementing officer meaning that variations in ideas might be the major impediment to the execution of the model. For instance, the cultural beliefs, expectations, values, and perceptions might be different. The model demands that all social factors are taken into consideration when trying to help individuals realize their potentials in society.

The executing officer might be tempted to stereotype, which would be considered unethical professional, as objectivity is needed when trying to implement change. Labeling or branding is not only a social dilemma, but also a professional ethical issue that might affect the realization of the desired goals.

Measuring the Success

The only major problem with the model is that it is often difficult to measure because social aspects are many and it would be hypocritical for anyone to claim that he or she solved all social problems facing the community or the group. However, some indicators are used in determining whether the model achieved its objectives.

For instance, one of the aims of the models is initiate community building activities, as it would keep individuals busy hence abstaining from criminal activities. The number of community-based groups in the community would indicate the successfulness of the program.

Another tactic used in the mode is providing welfare services and forming as many community groups as possible (Covey, Menard, & Franzese, 2013). Therefore, existence of legal groups, such as youth and women groups, would be a milestone in measuring the effectiveness of the model.

Implementation of the Model

Before implementing the model, it is important to understand its main principles, one of them being minimizing the chances for the occurrence of delinquent behavior. Other core values include empowerment, regulating behavior, development sense of worth, role modeling, and participation in communal activities. Based on the major principles, the model has four steps as far as execution is concerned.

First, the model will serve as integrative and systematic framework towards crime prevention in the community. The model should be consistent with the established ministry standards and guidelines and the funding will be resourced from the community non-governmental organizations and the local government.

Each group or community has unique features that must be understood before moving to implement the model. Since several challenges exist in the community, the model ill deal with each case systematically. The implementing team will combine the fundamental principles of crime deterrence and the activities that are unique to the community in order to understand type of crime.

Communication of the Proposed Model

In matters related to security, several stakeholders have to be involved right from the designing stage to the implementation stage. This means communication to several authorities should be maintained to ensure that they participate fully through funding and providing critical information.

For the government, the mode of communication will mainly be through official letters, even though seminars and meetings will be held from time to time to iron out some of the issues that might arise as the project progresses. The security agencies have a critical role to play, as they will be relied upon in the provision of the official data touching on crime and the levels of juvenile delinquency.

The local authorities will be notified through mails and meetings since they will be providing the forum for the discussion of the major issues facing the community (Schutt, 2006). Other stakeholders will be briefed frequently whenever anything new crops up.

Relationship of the Model with Other Strategies

The model is related to other strategies of crime prevention both at the local and national level. For instance, the ministry uses developmental model whereby high-school students are given specialized training on how to cope with life in an attempt to prevent crime. The social model has to be coalesced with developmental model to prevent any conflicts, as this would definitely lead to poor results.

References

Covey, H. C., Menard, S., & Franzese, R. J. (2013). Effects of adolescent physical abuse, exposure to neighborhood violence, and witnessing parental violence on adult socioeconomic status. Child maltreatment, 18(2), 85-97.

Dahlberg, L. L. (2008). Youth violence in the United States: major trends, risk factors, and prevention approaches. American journal of preventive medicine, 14(4), 259-272.

DiIulio, J. J. (1995). Help wanted: Economists, crime and public policy. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1), 3-24.

Hensley, C. & Singer, S. (2004). Applying Social Learning Theory to Childhood and Adolescent Fire setting: Can it Lead to Serial Murder? International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 48(4), 461–476.

Preston, S., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2000). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. New York: Blackwell Publishing.

Schutt, R. (2006). Investigating the Social World: The Process and Practice of Research. London: SAGE Publications.

Introduction

There is no doubt that the UAE’s suffers from an acute demographic imbalance given the evidence that statistics indicates that the locals have been outnumbered by foreigners. Statistics indicates that foreigners make up over 90% of the population, a trend projected to keep going up by time. Consequently, this has raised several questions, such as security, culture, and identity globalization. This paper focuses on analyzing the implications of the United Arabs Emirates’ demographic imbalance on national security and national identity.

It has been argued that nationals suffer identity inferiority due to the imbalance. In addition, it has been acknowledged that foreigners play a leading role in developing the economy, providing workforce, and expertise, which are instrumental in the facilitation of region’s phenomenal infrastructural growth. Nevertheless, an extreme dependency on foreign labor and migrant workers has resulted into a situation where the local minorities find themselves faced with criminal trends from a foreign lower class.

Some of the threats to the state’s security today were nearly non-existent before the UAE, the oil rich nation as it is today. It is evident that there is existence of crime gangs that perpetuate murders and illegal white and blue collar deals every year. It is the richest in the Arab world because of the presence of natural resources, which is characterized by economic diversification projects and strategic approaches. Typified by many natural resources, many people prefer to live in the UAE than other GCC countries.

Moreover, the country is becoming a hub for drug smugglers and various imported criminal activities that jeopardize the nation’s security. Notably, the big population of foreign workers implies that they have considerable power in numbers. This results in an increase in insecurity. For instance, in 2006, there was a strike that had been organized by foreign taxi drivers, which turned into violent for the reason that they did not wish to pay penalties for traffic offenses.

Foreign constructors also staged violent demonstrations that caused a lot of destruction. The fact that they do not have loyalty to the host country makes the situation dangerous. Such actions have social and economic implications because the UAE is forced to conform to the laws and regulations of other countries. It is imperative to note that some of the immigrant workers forced the UAE government to provide them with conditions similar to those of their home country even when they are not recognized by local laws.

Many researchers have argued that the best practical solution for government would be capitulating to the demands of foreign workers since it does not wish to lose its main source of labor. Despite the damages that are caused by the westerners, the government has tried other initiatives, such as making laws that allow them to exercise their freedoms, such as wearing bikinis on public beaches.

Although this has been successful in attracting more visitors, it has tended to fuel tension between the locals and “favored” foreigners. It is critical to indicate that cultural integration has not been an easy task since many western and the UAE customs do not rhyme. In fact, what is taken for granted in Europe may earn one a prison sentence in the UAE. For example, many foreigners have been frequently arrested for driving while drunk, indecent exposure, and public display of affections.

Thus, the labor obligations above combined with the cultural contradiction potentially create a rivalry or even enmity between the locals and foreigners with the former feeling that their laws and culture are being disrespected. Therefore, it is important to understand that as long visitors outnumber the locals, they will feel unsecured and threatened. Characterized by incidences of guest related crime, the UAE may be turning into a hotbed of internal and, perhaps later, external conflicts.

Literature review

Demographic imbalance is the biggest threat that is facing UAE. This has resulted from the inclusion of foreigners into the country, who enjoy relatively a large number in the country. It is clear from population analysts that the demographic imbalance has been caused by the importation of labor from other countries.The analysts have predicted that the dependence on foreign labor could continue as far as the UAE does not change the existing policies.

However, the analysts have shown that the population disparity has continued to grow greatly, while the government is not taking any action to deal with increasing rates of immigrations. In fact, population distributions, strength in numbers have been associated with society structure, and influence the direction of transformation of the UAE. Notably, the number of people, its distribution, and age composition are some of the important aspects that cause social changes.

Studies indicate that the imbalance was caused by the small size of the population, and unavailability of the skilled workforce. In, addition, oil became a new source of energy that made the state richer than before. This made the government embark on its infrastructural projects in many areas, such as roads and transportation, education, and healthcare.

The presence of instability in the UAE due to wars with the neighboring nations worsened the situation of the already existing identity problems. A study to investigate the effects of internal instability found that UAE citizens perceived the presence of outsiders as a threat to their cultural identity. The condition was worsened by the rising unemployment among the young, the growth of highly complex privatized sector, and the Arab Spring, that is destabilizing the gulf region.

It is critical to underscore that the UAE nationals have disclosed that UAE’s demographic imbalance was among the leading nations that are anticipated to encounter present and future problems with regard to issues of healthcare, trade and industry, and safety. It is worth noting that the policy of economic development and population is a paradox. This is due to the fact that before the discovery of oil, the UAE citizens depended on local industries. However, the reliance on these industries changed after the outbreak of the Second World War, the great depression, and the civil war. This created a change in many sectors of the economy.

There are other resources that the UAE is utilizing in order to minimize the threats from foreigners. The UAE has adopted new measures to expand its wealth. It is focusing on agriculture where agricultural policy-makers are aiming at planning development projects. This is because most people depend on agriculture for consumption and many industries use agricultural products as raw materials. Recent studies indicate that the agricultural industry produces over ten million tonnes every twelve months. This is achieved through the support of government. It is estimated that the UAE is 30% self-sufficient with regard to agriculture.

The other 70% should be concentrated on to make the UAE’s population independent in relation to food production. Afforestation has become a valuable activity that has provided the UAE with another resource to reduce the threats. Planting of native and exotic trees has transformed many parts. Another key resource is water. Water is life as stated by many scholars. Preserving water sources implies diversifying the UAE’s economy. Policy-makers should focus on preserving water and analyze physical, economic and social impacts of water on the UAE’s economy.

The 2000 statistics indicates that almost 19,000 persons work as fishermen. 73% are foreigners, while 27% are nationals. 100% of the fishes are domestically consumed. Arguably, in the future the UAE should develop many resources to improve the management of threats aforementioned. The land should be reclaimed to support agriculture, which is vital in supporting many industries in the UAE. Land can be utilized in many ways. For example, it could be used for agriculture, mining, as has been the case after the discovery of oil, and for settlement of its population. Another vital resource that should be developed is the people.

From the recent studies, the UAEs population is smaller compared with that of foreigners. This has posed a challenge to the security of the nation. Therefore, the situation can be changed if the government adopts measures to increase its population. As a result, many people would be crucial in outnumbering the foreigners. Water is another resource that the UAE should continue to preserve. It is critical to state that most industries depend on water. For instance, hydroelectric power is generated from water, which is crucial in many industries. The UAE should aim at tapping a lot of water since some areas experience high rainfalls. If these resources would be effectively developed, then it would be easier to reduce threats in the state.

It is important to note that the UAE is typified by both internal and external threats due to demographic imbalance. Internal threats have interfered with the running of many activities in the country. The legalizing of property owned by the UAE government for foreigners became an internal threat to the native population. Although the government’s objective was to instill confidence to investors, its citizens felt threatened.

The UAE encountered difficulties in attracting outsiders. It could only attract speculators and war refugees. Water challenge has developed because the large area that is encroached by desert, for example, some areas do not receive adequate rainfall, making it hard to avoid water shortages. For instance, it is evident that the Northern Emirates experience more challenges with regard to water and electricity. This has been the case due to the fact that the less available water is used in luxuries, such as European grass lawns.

In addition, duplicity in diversification has been experienced in the UAE, particularly in aviation and finance sectors. Areas with duplicities, such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai, have rendered the UAE ineffective and inefficient. The population disparity has threatened the Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030. Despite the fact that the UAE has afforded the strategic investments and recruited the required human labor, it has been a challenge to incorporate the indigenous human labor for the vision to be effective and sustainable.

Moreover, according to Kasim, it has threatened Adec Mudabala, which aims at implementing the key objectives of the Economic vision 2030. Thus, demographic imbalance has interfered with the implementation of the Economic Vision 2030. In addition, there is wealth disparity between the foreigners and the nationals. It is clear that wealth is unevenly distributed in the federation, with little transparency in its budgets.

Analysts indicated that 29% of the UAE’s oil income between 1990 and 1994 was not included in the national budgets. External threats are characterized by border disputes with the neighboring countries, such as Iran, Oman, and Qatar. Weaning itself from imported labor has been a major problem with security, despite the fact that nationals have gained the relevant skills needed in current positions held by foreign experts.

It is worth noting that the UAE’s condition is critical in relation to the challenges it is facing compared with other members. Almost every sector is typified with a number of challenges. Some of them have been attributed to the demographic inequality in the region, while others are attributed to other causes. In fact, the majority of them have their roots in the immigrant labor. The challenges have economic, social, and political dimensions. In social aspects, sectors such as health, overpopulation and education have encountered many challenges, with natives suffering most. In the education sector, the police report that was released in the media revealed that some of the evils that are in the nation resulted from foreigners.

The quality of education is not in line with the goals of Unesco, i.e., Education For All Movements by 2015. According to the Unesco’s special program specialists, the UAE students obtained average results from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA). The report indicated that the country’s enrolment was higher in both primary and high schools compared with other GCC members. In addition, its system was good, but the quality of education offered was poor. It was in the position 44^th and 46^th respectively out of 65 countries that participated in 2012.

The rapid population increase has been a challenge. This resulted from the high influx of immigrant labor that outnumbered the inhabitants of the UAE. As a result, many social evils, such as stealing, prostitution and corruption became rampant, something that was not there before the coming of the immigrant labor. The high population made life unaffordable for the lower class people, especially those who are not educated.

Furthermore, cultural differences between the natives and foreigners have posed a challenge to the growth of the nation’s economy. After the coming of the foreign labor, their culture differed from that of natives. For instance, the mode of dressing was different with regard to the two groups in the UAE. Relating with each other differed greatly. Another social challenge that is faced by the UAE is related to private healthcare. Private healthcare centers are characterized by congested facilities and high costs of treatments.

With regard to economic challenges, the UAE has experienced demographic imbalance in areas employment. Many foreigners work in industries that require expertise, leaving the UAE citizens jobless. The foreigners own large estates, while the natives occupy poorly developed areas in the country. As a result, the crime rate has increased, threatening the country’s security.

Emiratization has been a challenge, whereby finding employment for the UAEs citizens in the private sector is a problem. If the nationals would be given jobs in the private sector, it would result in inefficiency in private sector businesses. This is because private sectors perceive it as a method of taxation. The large part of land that is encroached by desert makes the country to depend on other activities.

This land could be utilized for agriculture, but it has been left bare. However, this challenge can be overcome if the UAE government reclaims the used land, and introduce irrigation schemes using water from dams. Land policies have made its citizens to live as squatters, yet they belong to that country. It has been unable to reduce usage of petrol, water, and electricity that are misused for the reason that the government is subsidizing them.

The nation has experienced various political problems. For example, border disputes as discussed among the UAE, Iran, and Qatar. This has increased tension among citizens of the three states, leading to insecurity in the region. The tension affects economic sector because people do not concentrate on economic activities, but keep on migrating to peaceful areas. For example, the effects of western attack on Iran made the government look for ways of reducing the negative effects of the aggression toward its territory. Its effects were loss of confidence by the investors and decrease in the number of tourists.

However, according to Vision 2021 news, the UAE government through its cabinet introduced a national charter that focused on transforming the UAE. The charter anticipated that the nation would be one of the best states in the world by 2021. It encouraged creativity and innovation in countering the challenges the nation was facing. According to the charter, nationals were expected to be ambitious and responsible for them to face the future with confidence, unity, and have a common goal of protecting the Emirates. In addition, it would advocate for stable development to make the UAE a powerful nation, and concentrate on developing science-based economy, which would be varied and flexible. Moreover, it aimed at ensuring that nationals thrive with regard to good health, quality education, and other government services.

To achieve the objectives of vision 2021, the government initiated the 2011-2013 strategy, which focused on ensuring that government work would be conducted in line with the set goals and principles. According to its principles, citizens would be prioritized, and accountability and innovation would be encouraged. To achieve this, the functions of federal entities would be devised employing effective regulations and integrated policies. The strategy would promote harmonization and teamwork among federal bodies and local authorities. The 2010-2013 strategy concentrated on offering high-quality, consumer-centered and incorporated government services.

It is anticipated that demographic disparity could remain the same, or increase. This is because of the expo 2020 that is expected to take place in Dubai. Expo 2020 would promote cost-effective, artistic and societal transformations, and generate a vital legacy for the host country. Thus, the holding of expo 2020 in Dubai means that more infrastructures would be needed. This implies that more expertise would be necessary, and more foreigners would come to provide labor. Analysts argue that the expo 2020 would boost various sectors.

Tourism sector would be boosted more because more visitors would come. It is anticipated that the government would gain $ 21 million. Real estates would be advertised leading to the influx and settlement of foreigners in the UAE. The prices of commodities are expected to rise because of the high number of participants in the expo 2020. Despite the fact that there is a demographic imbalance in the region characterized by disparities in employment, it is predicted that 277,000 job opportunities would be created. This would be a solution to some of the social evils, such as stealing and prostitution for the reason that nationals who are the most affected in relation to unemployment. However, the influx of outsiders would continue causing demographic imbalance as was the case after the discovery of oil. This would result in moral disintegration and a threat to national security.

Compared with other countries, UAE is the third largest in the Arab world in terms of economic growth and the second largest compared with other GCC countries. The factors behind its success are unity, social openness, tolerance, coexistence, and prior preparation for safety. It is easier for many nationals to live in the UAE. This is because it gives a lot freedom to visitors, including freedom of worship and movement. In addition, it is the most tolerable nation among the GCC member states.

The UAE has a good system of education with high enrolments in primary and secondary school, but the quality of education is poor. Ansari and Diane suggest that it has also adopted a sense of balance of foreign policy that would be based on consultation with regard to international principles and dedication to the United Nations charter compared to other member countries of the GCC. This is evident in the manner in which the UAE relates to other nations of the world.

It is important to note that population change is only determined by death, birth, and migration. Thus, measures of intervention are limited by those factors. It is important to look at strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the UAE in order to come up with strategic approaches. The short-term strategies would comprise reducing the risks that affect the UAE nationals, for example, ensuring that their living standards are good, and managing the rates of migration. In addition, it is advisable to campaign for birth acceleration. The UAE can also use part-time and youth employment to reduce the rate of labor importation.

The part-time labors would work in temporary capacities, reducing the need for adding foreign workers in the country. It is correct to state that the UAEs immigration rules are loose characterized by legal and illegal arbitrage, such as labor sponsorship system that hinders mobility and improvement in the market. Security of the nationals should be prioritized. However, removing the sponsorship system would be a challenge since it can only be achieved through an amendment. Sponsorship system keeps foreign labor in jobs they do not want to do, or in jobs they are unproductive, while there is availability of the same expertise in the country. Another strategic approach that would be effective would be training of professionals, creation of workforce skills and the reduction in over-reliance on means of production that require huge labor.

This would be possible through the application of modern technology to replace unskilled human labor and the increase in wages in private sectors. This would be beneficial and economical to jobless nationals. Retaining of the skilled labor would be another approach. This entails attracting and retaining the creative class that is skilled, and has the potential to offer mobile services. This would be possible through provision of incentives to the workforce. The idea of equating growth with prosperity without considering its impacts on national population should change. Population increase should not be seen as a result of economic success.

Therefore, it is crucial to explore administrative costs and losses resulting from production and find their root causes. It is also important for the UAE government to build a more positive national identity, which would help citizens to overcome any conflict that would arise from all dimensions, such as historical, religious, and ethnicity. A strong culture that supports moral values, and do not accommodate foreign cultures would be important in discouraging the immigration of labor. As earlier discussed, change in demographic imbalance is mainly influenced by birth, death, and migration. Thus, the measures discussed above would only reduce it, if they would be adopted.

The UAE strategic vision 2030 focuses on utilizing the available opportunities to make the UAE a leading nation among the GCC. News released by the Inter Press Agency News, highlighted that Vision 2030 concentrates on ensuring sustainability in economic development in both the public and private sector. The obtainable solutions relate with the UAE’s strategic vision 2030 because the strategic approach concentration is on both sustainable developments and reducing population imbalance. Both are comparable in that, they aim at conceptualizing, consolidating, simplifying, and updating planning for achievement of sustainable development. In its long-term strategies, vision 2030, gives the solutions that are provided in this paper, such as security, safety, emergency preparedness, and ecological protection.

It would be critical to underscore the impacts of demographic disparity to both the national security and the UAE nationals. Many studies have shown that the disparity has both positive and negative effects. On the positive side, it is important to acknowledge the role played by foreign workers in economic growth and the development in various sectors in the UAE. In fact, Ahmad and Ali contend that foregners offered cheap labor, which was more economical and profitable.

The coming of foreign workforce made the UAE cosmopolitan, giving it an advantage to be ahead of other nations in the region. Nonetheless, they brought the production capability, knowledge, and expertise, which resulted in rapid economic growth. This is evident in the short period that was used by the UAE to realize considerable developments using many foreign labors. Thus, they played central roles in the improvement of the country and its economy.

Arab labors are considered as the initiators of education. Ahmad and Ali in a study conducted to examine informal education, acknowledged that education system of the UAE originated from Arabs. Foreigners had different cultures from the UAE nationals. When they came to the country, they enriched the nationals’ culture. In addition, the nationals adopted foreign language that enabled them to communicate easily with the outsiders, leading to cultural exchange. The UAE was exposed to the outside world. This was facilitated by its tolerance that attracted many citizens from all over the world.

Despite the positive effects of demographic disparity on the national security, it is also typified by negative impacts. Concerning the behaviors, youths’ moral values have decayed due to foreigners’ influence. For example, the mode of dressing, the manner of perceiving things, and their religion changed. They began copying westerners of doing things. This resulted in loss of cultural contact by the UAE nationals. This is evident in the decline in the use of Arabic language in all sectors, including schools and workplaces.

As a result, citizens encountered difficulties in reading and interpreting Quran, leading to abandonment of their religion. Furthermore, it led to unemployment among the Emirates. This was facilitated by importation of skilled labor, leaving them unemployed. Joblessness made young people abuse drugs. Consequently, the crime rate and psychological instability increased. For example, drug trafficking, fraud, and prostitution became rampant. Child helpers, who were employed to care for the children, did not treat the children as was expected. According toHusam-Aldin Al- and Rekha, foreigners were offered employment opportunities, leaving the nationals jobless.

The two researcher ague that demographic imbalance led to water and food insecurity. This is for the reason that it created pressure on the scarce resources and stress on the environment. Many people fell sick because there was spread of diseases. This was due to an unhealthy environment. Social aspect of life became expensive, for, example, education and healthcare services. Nationals realized the importance of education, increasing its demand. The increased number of unskilled workers contributed to a reduction in productivity levels of the UAE.

Recommendations

Before the paper focus on recommending what should be adopted in order to reduce demographic imbalance and its effects on the UAE nationals and national security, it is vital to mention that the situation was caused by two factors, i.e., presence of oil and the UAE’s small population. Therefore, recommendations would concentrate on policies that would impact the two factors.

First, the government should embark on reforming labor-market laws. It is worth noting that the UAE migration laws are loose, and everyone can easily adhere to them. In addition, there are no strict measures for those who break them. The market laws should include phasing out sponsorship policy, and choosing private sectors to manage visas. This would improve statistical tracking of non-nationals, reducing illegal entry into the state. Consequently, only skilled labor would migrate into the UAE as compared with earlier situations, where everybody migrated into the country. The private sector would help in ensuring that only qualified child helpers would be employed.

Second, it is important to introduce specialized tools for young people to deal with the country’s heritage. This could only be achieved through supporting the role of family in preserving the Emirate’s heritage. Modern technology should be utilized in both promotions of heritage and enforcing decent rules to new visitors to protect Muslims in the region, and their Islamic culture. In addition, curriculum should be developed in such a way that national heritage and identity are incorporated. This would be important for future generations.

Third, the government should concentrate on investing in national human capital. During the research for this paper, it was realized that the education system of the UAE does not match with the modern economy. The focus should be given to industrial and vocational training to prepare citizens adequately to be reliable with regard to getting employment. Moreover, higher education and research institutions should concentrate on effective and innovative to equip students with knowledge that would be critical in promoting academic freedom.

Academic freedom would result in the preservation of cultural heritage. Fourth, there is a need for building societal changes and the labor market with regard to women’s employment. It is clear that the UAE labor laws do not support employed and/or studying mothers. The UAE women are not given maternity leave options. To fight demographic imbalance, fertility rates need to be increased. It is important to realize that women are educated in the country, and have more influence on labor force than men.

Nevertheless, pro-natalist policies would only start if the burden on women is reduced in relation to the workplace and those that would be studying. Therefore, the UAE administration should introduce gender-aware regulation reforms. Maternity leaves, developments of nurseries, day cares, housing, and improved prenatal healthcare should be prioritized to reduce the demographic imbalance. The retirement age of the nationals should be increased because early retirement depletes skilled labor, creating the need for imported labor, especially at the senior levels of the firms. Fifth, foreigners should be given a stake in society.

For example, a formal path to the acquisition of citizenship to non-nationals should be adopted, and should be minimal, at most 3%-5% of the current demography. Giving citizenship to skilled doctors, professionals, and business investors who have employed a relatively high number of nationals would be advisable. Sixth, national outlook need to be changed. It is anticipated that the number of unemployed UAE citizens would continue to increase each day. It is crucial for market laws to be geared toward specialization and the creation of labors that do not heavily rely on human labor as a means of production and service.

Although, the UAE has made progress in this area, there is a room for improvement. Nonetheless, the UAE administration should continue to diversify its economy and encourage citizen to invest in them. In particular, it should focus on education for the reason that it would bring changes in almost every sector. Healthcare sector should be improved to increase fertility rates. For example, both free pre-natal, post-natal services, and maternity-leave with subsidiaries should be provided to women.

Concussion

In conclusion, the demographic imbalance is not only a challenge in the UAE, but also in the GCC member countries. The imbalance is brought about by the presence of rich natural resource and small population of the state. It is important to underscore that the non-nationals migrated to the UAE to offer skilled labor, which was in demand, especially after the discovery of oil. This situation is anticipated to remain the same, or even become worse.

This would be the case because of the expo 2020 that is expected to be held in Dubai. Large numbers of foreigners are expected to participate in the expo 2020. Some foreigners have begun migrating to engage in construction works that have already begun. Despite the fact that the UAE has gained from the high influx of foreigners, the imbalance has more disadvantages than advantages. The presence of foreigners has impacted negatively on national security and the UAE population. For instance, childcare providers did not bring up children in the expected ways.

The imbalance has been characterized by moral decay, lack of cultural identity, unemployment, and decrease in living standards of the nationals. Crime rates and theft cases have increased due to unemployment of the UAE citizens. The imbalance instills fear among the UAE citizens. However, the condition of the UAE can be changed, or improved. Although birth, death, and migration are the main factors behind it, governments can develop measures to reduce the imbalance. Labor market reforms, change of societal perception, encouraging professionalism, among other steps would yield positive results to a demographic imbalance. Arguably, imported labor may not be more productive than the nationals. Therefore, the education system should be tailored toward producing self-reliant citizens who are knowledgeable and skilled. This would result in reduction of imported labor, easing the demographic imbalance.

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Introduction

The first and second demographic transitions changed the demography of US society in the 20th century dramatically. The first demographic transition featured the improved living standards for older people and was accompanied by several government programs to support this population group. The second demographic transition affected young women and was associated with the feminist movement, although not all women were equally successful in this transition. Women’s lives in higher classes changed as they got great job opportunities, and over 48% of them started to combine parenting and work. Women from higher classes also became mothers at a later age, and by 2000 the average age of mothers of young children under the age of five was 32, while in 1980, this figure was 26. At the same time, women from higher classes managed to create strong families by changing the indicators of the divorce rate in this group. At the same time, the age of motherhood for women from the lower classes remained practically unchanged and increased from 21-22 years in 1980 to 23 years in 2000. At the same time, since the late 1990s, more women from lower classes have been combining work and raising children, which has led to the best conditions for children. The number of divorces also increased among this group; this indicates that women have become easier to get rid of unhealthy relationships, but it is also a negative trend since in the group represented, the smallest number of children communicate with their fathers. This paper aims to discuss the causes and consequences of the second demographic transition and present the policies that could fix the negative impacts.

Widened Disparities in Children’s Resources

The second demographic transition started its course in the 1960s and featured more women entering the workforce and gaining control of family, marriage, and childbirth issues. Even though this trend had positive consequences for the females of the top quartile, it also brought negative impacts for the women from the lower quartile in terms of motherhood and children’s access to parental resources. In particular, McLanahan says that women with higher education received better opportunities on the job market and tended to make better family choices than women with no higher education. Therefore, the second demographic transition led to disparities in children’s resources by social class.

Disparities in governmental social support programs for the older population and children have become another trend characteristic of the second demographic transition. Preston argues that, although this is a reasonable choice for developed nations to spend funds on bettering the living conditions of the older population through healthcare and direct support policies, the US society faced an unfortunate trend when children did not receive a comparable amount of social resources in governmental spending. Therefore, the scientist emphasized the need to reverse the trend and pay more attention to social spending on parenting for several reasons.

Scientific Arguments

Specifically, McLanahan says that feminist tendencies and the labor market crisis led to the current trends when children from lower classes were losing access to parenting resources increasingly fast. In particular, the scientist notes that women from higher classes more often created a stable relationship with a partner, so that children received resources from their fathers. The second positive factor associated with motherhood was that women from higher classes began to have children at a more mature age, which led to more responsible parenting and more active cognitive stimulation, and greater warmth in relationships with children. In addition, working women with higher education from higher classes received higher salaries, and their work did not negatively affect the amount of time spent with children. Therefore, children in families from higher classes began to live in a more favorable and stable environment, which positively affects their psycho-emotional state, school performance, and future career prospects.

At the same time, according to McLanahan, women from lower classes did not meet such favorable changes and new career prospects. In particular, a substantial percentage of these women raised their children alone, which negatively affected, first of all, the financial situation of the family. In addition, children of single mothers usually did not communicate with their fathers, who also did not provide material support in their upbringing. Therefore, among children from the lower classes, the percentage of families living in poverty has increased.

The Importance of the Disparity Issue

At the same time, Preston emphasizes that government spending on supporting older groups of the population has grown exponentially, while expenditures for supporting children have declined. This tendency had significant adverse effects on the quality of education. Due to underfunding of teachers’ salaries, less educated and intelligent educators stayed to work as teachers, and more smart ones left the profession. In addition, more and more teachers with lower educational indicators began to associate their future with pedagogy. Preston emphasizes that such a trend is hazardous, and in the future, will lead to an increase in debt, which will become a burden for future grown-ups, while their career opportunities will be lower. Therefore, if society is concerned not only with the individual but also with the shared societal future, it is necessary to allocate more resources for children.

Preston emphasizes that the underfunding of the child population is logical but at the same time unfair. The scientist emphasizes that the relation to a larger group in modern society allows it to receive more benefits since this group can assert its rights through voting. Preston notes that the group of children lacks influence in society for several reasons. First, the percentage of children continued to decline from 1960 to 1984. Secondly, only 38% of people eligible to vote had children and could vote on their behalf, although not all representatives of this group took part in the vote. In contrast, the percentage of voters among people 65 years and older was much higher. Third, children do not vote, unlike more senior adults. Finally, far fewer adults vote for retirement benefits in the context of voting for their future old age than adults who would vote for their childhood. The scientist even suggests that if a person’s life cycle developed in the opposite order, the situation might be different.

Steps to Address the Issue

McLanahan notes that the situation presented is abnormal and that the government should address the problems associated with the second demographic transition in the way they were addressed after the first demographic transition happened. The first demographic transition featured an unprecedented decrease in mortality among the older population, and to meet the need of this group, the government developed pension, healthcare, and other programs. Therefore, there should be created similar programs to meet the needs of the population affected by the second demographic transition – children from lower classes, as well as young mothers and fathers from lower classes with worse job opportunities, the mothers and fathers from both classes who are in a divorce, and their children.

McLanahan suggests that the government should elaborate on the programs that will force the fathers to support their children. Another direction of social support is the credit for the young people from the lower classes who want to create families since most people refrain from making a family because they cannot correspond to their ideas about the family, which are similar to those of the life of the higher classes. Single mothers should also receive support in rearing children, and young couples should receive psychological and emotional support to overcome the family conflicts that lead to divorces.

Thus, the causes and consequences of the second demographic transition were discussed, and the policies that could fix the negative impacts were presented. The reasons for the second demographic transition are associated with the feminist movement, greater control of women over their bodies, increased opportunities for free choice of marriage time, and greater opportunities for combining work and motherhood. These tendencies led to an increase in access to resources among children in higher-class families but did not positively impact women from lower classes. Therefore, the federal and local governments should develop policies to make a difference.

The age demographics of Elizabeth, NJ demonstrates that there has been a definite change towards an aging population. The percentage of people within the age group of 4 to 17 years has declined from 2000-2010 by 1.37 per cent. Though the number of people from 18 to 64 years has increased by 6.1 per cent, there has been a sharp decline in the people above the age of 65 years by 4.48 per cent (see figure 1) (“Elizabeth, New Jersey, Population”). The median age in 2000 census was 32.6 years while it increased to 33.2 years in 2010 (“Elizabeth, New Jersey, Population”). However, the national median age recorded in 2010 was 36.9 years (“National Population Projections”).

U.S. has an aging population with a definitive trend towards an increase in the percentage of people in the higher age group bracket since 2000 (Howden and Meyer 1). According to the age projections published by the US Census Bureau, there will be a marked increase in the rate of change of population within the age group of 65 years and above (“National Population Projections”).

In 2010, the percentage of people above 65 years was 9.2 per cent in Elizabeth city, which was lower than the state percentage of 13.5 per cent and the nation’s share of 12.7 per cent (“Elizabeth, New Jersey, Population”). This shows that the city of Elizabeth has lesser share of aged population. A comparison of the sex wise distribution of age in Elizabeth shows that the age distribution of the population has tended towards older age groups when the two census data on demographics (2000 and 2010). Similarly, for the US, the two data (for 2000 and 2010 census) demonstrates that the spread of the population has increased for older age groups vis-à-vis younger age groups across both sexes (see figure 2). Elizabeth city too has shown similar change in age distribution.

One unique feature of the city of Elizabeth’s age distribution of the population is that the city has a median age much lower than the national average of 36.9 years. Further, the concentration of the age demographics towards the older age groups has been less in the city as compared to the national data. On checking the national projections of age distribution in the US, it is observed that there is an expected trend of increasing older population throughout the country, with increasing concerns regarding older population. However, if a trend for the city’s above 65 years population is taken then it can be seen that there is no exponential growth in the percentage of older population (“National Population Projections”). The percentage of population within the age of 15 years to 44 years is too observed to follow a similar trend with no indication of a fall or rise in the imminent future (see figure 3).

However, the national trend in age and the city’s trend, it is expected that in future there will be a shift of the population towards the older population (“National Population Projections”). This will reduce the percentage of people in the working age category and would increase old age dependency of the city. Therefore, this will affect our lifestyle choices and the way the public administration and the city’s civic life would operate. Hence, as I would age in future, there would be a definite increase in the other aged people in the community, creating pressure on productivity of the community, as there will be fewer people working in full-time jobs.

Works Cited

“Elizabeth, New Jersey, Population”. US Census Bureau. 2010. Web.

Howden, Lindsay M. and Julie A. Meyer. “Age and Sex Composition: 2010.” US Census Bureau. 2011. Web.

“National Population Projections” . US Census Bureau. 2014. Web.

Choice of Topic

• East London’s demographic dynamism.
• The area is cosmopolitan in nature.
• The native population was the Cockneys.
• Mainly populated by Bangladeshi immigrants.
• It is a good demonstration of effects of immigrant waves.
• The area is contentiously classified.

At one point, it appeared that the changing demographics of East London would result in chaos and disarray (Butler and Hamnett 2011). Although the Cockneys were the original tenants in East End, their number is now lower than that of the Bangladesh immigrants. This research is vested in the factors that led to these demographic changes. Some of the urban areas that had homogeneous populations before the war (1940s) have had their demographics altered by immigrant waves. East End is a perfect demonstration of these shifts. The topic of study could eventually clarify the contentious issues that apply to the classification of East end and the entire East London.

Methods Used in the Study

• Use of statistics from government agencies.
• Researching of population trends.
• Focus on the changing demographics over the last century.
• Use of qualitative data to explain the quantitative.
• Literature review on Multiculturalism trends in London.
• Analysis of literature review.
• Examination of emerging multiculturalism trends.
• Contextualization of the results.
• Conclusion of the findings.

The study utilizes statistics from reliable sources in a bid to map the current and the past population trends. Several past case studies on multiculturalism will be used to analyze the changing trends in East London.

The literature review is analyzed and the views of the various authors are correlated. The correlation highlights how multiculturalism trends have changed over the course of time. The context of the change through which the results are discussed is my patents’ lifetime.

The Findings So Far..

• The natives of East end were originally Cockneys.
• East London bears a connection to the Victorian era.
• Evidence of strong Kinship in History (Young & Wilmott 2013).
• Demographic patterns affected by Bangladeshi migration.
• Changing attitudes in the current East end.
• Racial tensions.
• The Indian influence in East End.
• Immense changes in my parents’ lifetime.
• The area will continue to change in future.

The Cockneys are the first modern natives of East London and they brought with them the Victorian age connection (Dench, Gavron, and Young 2006). The influence of Victorian British was evident in East End as recently as the 1900s. An influx of migrants from Bangladeshi changed the multicultural outlook of the region.

With new inhabitants came new attitudes, mostly of resentment towards the newcomers by the natives. Consequently, the issue of race began featuring in East End. Currently, the merging Indian and English culture continue to produce an interesting type of multiculturalism. The second generation of Bangladeshis will produce a more uniform-culture London than the current multiculturalism.

Next Stage of Research

• How have the Bangladeshi influenced other East Enders.
• What is the future demographic projections.
• Multiculturalism in regards to intergenerational outlook.
• What is the future for Cockneys in East End.

Have the immigrants had any major impact on East London and its inhabitants and to what extent? The influx of immigration has went down and the influence of the Cockneys has waned, future research can point out how the future East End will fair culturally. Is there going to be an outside influence or will the current cultures merge to formulate a new influence? Research can also be used to indicate how different generations regard the multiculturalism of East End (Vertovec 2010). Eventually, what role will the original inhabitants play in the East.

Importance of Topic

• The entire London is witnessing trends similar to East End.
• Over fifty years after the war- intergenerational shifts are happening.
• Cockneys embody various cultural groups.
• Multicultural future of London is uncertain.
• Important to planners and policy makers.

Some of the immigrants who settled in London after the World War II have spawned two generations, and this has led to shifts in demographics and cultures. The situation facing Cockneys is replicated in various areas whereby natives feel that they have been ‘squeezed’ by immigrants. The advent of globalization makes it difficult to adjudge the future of multiculturalism in London (Castles 2005).

References

Butler, T and Hamnett, C 2011, Ethnicity, class and aspiration: understanding London’s new East End, Policy Press, London.

Castles, S 2005, ‘How nation‐states respond to immigration and ethnic diversity’, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 293-308.

Dench, G., Gavron, K., and Young, M 2006, The new East End: kinship, race and conflict, Profile Books, London.

Vertovec, S 2010, ‘Towards post‐multiculturalism? Changing communities, conditions and contexts of diversity’, International Social Science Journal, vol. 61, no. 199, pp. 83-95.

Young, M. and Wilmott, P 2013, Family and kinship in East, Routledge, London.

General Summary of Entire Us Demography as Compared With That of Zip Code 60614

The literacy profile of the entire nation differs from that one of zip in that many people in zip have reached bachelor’s degree and graduate level, while the majority of the entire nation is high school graduates and many have gone to some college but have no degree.

The marital status of the population in both populations varied. In USA entirely, majority had ‘now married’ status (51.13%) while in Zip, the majority had ‘never married’ status (54.20%) (Nemiroff, 1995).

Census and ethnic diversity

Races and ethnic communities in the entire nation have been continuously increasing including Americans, Indians, Eskimos, Asians, Blacks, Whites, Hispanic and others. In contrast, in zip, the population of Hispanic and ethnicities in the category of others has been decreasing since 1980 to the year 2000, while the American, Indian, Eskimos and Asian populations, though reduced between 1980 and 1990, have been on the increase between 1990 to 2000 (Sandefur,1996).

Residential houses occupied

Rental houses were decreasingly being occupied as the majority of the population increasingly owned their own houses in zip territory. This contrasts the entire US population trend that has been observed going for both rental and fully owned houses at an increasing rate (ESRI Press, 2004).

Population in the labor force

The population rate of those not in the labor force in zip is less compared to the rate of the entire country (The University of Michigan, 1994). Majority of the population in the entire nation is employed in manufacturing, health and retail trade industries while that of zip is employed in professional scientific and technical service and financial and insurance industry (Nemiroff, 1995).

Income

• The per capita income of zip territory was higher than that of the entire nation.
• The majority of the population in zip earns an income of $25,000 or above (each) while that of the entire nation ranges on $1-$2,499 and $25,000-$34,999 (Denton, 2005).
• Also, the majority of people between the age of 25 to 44 earns an income range of $100,000-$124,999 in zip and $75,000-$99,999 in the entire nation (Wansink, & Sandman, 2002).

It can be seen from the graph presentation that the various household income of zip territory is far much higher than that one of the entire nation.

The per capita house income in zip territory is 64426 while that one of entire nation is 21587.

Questions

1. Considering the differences found in the two areas in comparison, should the firm consider segmentation of marketing activities?
2. What causes the fluctuation of the population numbers of zip territory ethnicity and what effect does it have on the firm marketing activities?
3. Considering the higher per capita income and the increasing need to own houses in zip territory, is there profitable opportunity exploitable by the firm? (Berger, 2011).

References

• Berger, A. S. (2011). Ads, Fads, and Consumer Culture: Advertising’s Impact on American Character and Society. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
• Denton, R. E. (2005). The 2004 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
• ESRI Press. (2004). Community Sourcebook of ZIP Code Demographics 2004. Redlands, California: ESRI Press.
• Gokhale, J. (2010). Social Security: A Fresh Look at Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
• Nemiroff, R. (1995). A raisin in the sun: and, The sign in Sidney Burstein’s window. New York: Vintage Books.
• Sandefur, G. D. (1996). Changing Numbers, Changing Needs: American Indian Demography and Public Health. Washington, D.C: National Academies Press.
• The University of Michigan. (1994). Upclose demographic digest 1994: a sourcebook of key demographic statistics for every populated Zip Code included in the 1990 census. Chicago: UPCLOSE Pub.
• Wansink, B., & Sandman, S. (2002).Consumer Panels. California: American Marketing Association.

Introduction

The demographics of a country are very significant as they determine various aspects of the economy. The working force of the country is determined by the general population set up. A large population means that the domestic level of consumption is high. It could also imply a large workforce that could spur the economic growth of a country.

On the contrary, high levels of unemployment in an economy that has a large population means that the level of production is low in the country. This paper discusses the demographics of Hungary’s population. It will also highlight the demographic policies set up by the Hungarian government to check population demographics.

Country Demographics: Hungary

The general population of Hungary is comprised of Hungarians, who form 92.3% of the population. Therefore, the national language spoken in the country is also Hungarian. About half of the Hungarians are Catholics by religion while the rest are Calvinists, Lutherans, Greek Catholics or other Christians. According to The World Factbook, the country’s population estimates are 9,958,453 people (par. 3). Compared to the world, the country is ranked 87 with regard to the total population.

The population of Hungary is comprised of different age groups. The 0-14 year group and the 15-24 year group form 14.9% and 12.1% of the total population respectively. Majority of the people are aged 25-54, which forms 41.7% of the population. The aging groups of 55-64 and people above 65 years of age form 14.2% and 17.1% of the country’s total population respectively. This is depicted in the pyramid below (“The World Factbook: Hungary” par. 3).

With a median age of 40.5 years, the growth of the population is -0.184. The comparison of Hungary to the rest of the world based on the population growth rate shows that the country is ranked 206. The negative growth rate implies that given time, the country’s population is decreasing.

This could be attributed to the low birth rate of 9.49 births among 1000 people as compared to a high death rate of 12.7 deaths among 1000 people. Out of the entire population in the country, 68% of the population lives in cities (“The World Factbook: Hungary” par. 3).

Maternal mortality rate is a significant demographic factor that has some economic significance with the rate being 21 deaths in 1000 births. This level is quite high when compared to other countries in the world where Hungary is ranked 137. The maternal mortality rate could be one of the factors for high mortality rate as compared to low birth rate. Although infant mortality rate is not very high, 5.24 deaths occur in every 1000 live births (Burns and Cekota 74).

Life expectancy is an important measure of the welfare of a population. The life expectancy in Hungary is 75.02 years at birth with females having a higher life expectancy of 78.98 years compared to males who have 71.27 years. Health expenditure by the Hungarian government is 8.2% of the GDP. Under this measure, Hungary is ranked 53 across the world.

However, if the expenditure on health can be increased to reduce the mortality rates, the population growth would be positive. According to Moniq (223), the health of the working force of a nation is very significant as it determines the level of productivity of the labor force. Consequently, the level of HIV infection in Hungary is very low at 0.1% with only 3,000 people living with HIV/AIDS.

Literacy levels in the population of Hungary stands at 99% with every person aged 15 years and above can read and write effectively. This could be due to high expenditures of the Hungarian government on education, which is 5.2% of the GDP and is ranked 52 when compared with other countries in the world.

Despite the high literacy levels, a good number of the population is unemployed. The level of unemployment in Hungary is 26.5%, which makes the country ranked as 22 when compared with other countries across the globe. This is a very high rate.

Demographic Change over Time

The population of Hungary has been on the decrease over time mainly due to various factors. To begin with, the birth rate is quite low among the citizens of Hungary. This could also be as a result of the high number of mortality rates as compared to the birthrates. The comparison of the population pyramids of Hungary since the year 2000 to 2012 reveals that the age structures have changed.

While initial pyramids indicate large numbers of people at the top age groups such as those aged above 65 years of age, later pyramids such as that of 2000 and 2012 show reduced number of the aged population. The middle age groups’ demographic composition of the Hungary population has not changed much. However, it is clear that the mortality rate of females aged above 65 years is lower than that of their male counterparts given that there are more females in that age bracket than males.

(“Hungary Population Pyramid for 1990” par. 1).

Demographic Policy options for Hungary

Demographic policies are significant to any economy including Hungary. The population of Hungary began exhibiting a decrease that began in 1980. From the demographic pyramid shown above, it is clear that the country’s population has been decreasing since.

The decrease has been accompanied by decreasing fertility rates too. This has resulted in high death rates as compared to the birth rates and consequently the decreasing population. Due to these changes, the Hungarian government initiated some policies to overcome the population demographic changes (László 53).

The policies adopted by the government of Hungary can be traced back many years even before the Second World War. However, more policies have been implemented by the government with regard to population growth. From 1990 to 1994, the government of Hungary adopted a population resolution 1994 in whose decrees were not implemented. It further went ahead to establish a family policy between 1994 and 1998 where the policy shifted toward poverty allowance systems.

The government went further to establish policies on family planning that could help it maintain a steady increase in the population growth, especially after realizing the continued population decrease. The policies had various measures to hinder acceleration of the aging process in the population while promoting the economic progress of the country (Demographic Policy 5).

Conclusion

Despite the efforts of the Hungarian government to put in place demographic policies, it has faced challenges concerning implementing the policies. One of the challenges has been inadequate financing of the policies thereby making the policies to be less effective. Despite the challenges, the Hungarian government has established institutions that support the family, especially the mother and the child.

This has included maternity allowance, childbirth leave, and additional leaves for child growth. Other programmes were initiated for different purposes towards population control. For instance, the government established a policy on abortion where abortion could only be undertaken under certain limits. Additionally, a policy relating to the state of the health of the country’s population and mortality was established with the aim being ensuring a healthy working labor force.

Works Cited

Demographic Policy 2013, National Report of Hungary. PDF File. Web.

Burns, Andrew and Cekota, Jaromir. “Coping with Population Ageing in Hungary.” OECD Economic Department Working Papers. No. 338. 2002. Print.

Moniq, Kaposztaz. “Demographic situation and population policy in Hungary.” Demographics 29.3 (1987): 217-227.

László, Hablicsek. “Demographic Situation and Population Policies in Hungary.” In: Tomáš Kučera. New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2000. Print.

Hungary Population Pyramid for 1990 2013. Web.

The World Factbook: Hungary 2013. Web.

Introduction

Human beings’ population around the globe has experienced many changes. The population of an area can exhibit either an increase or a decrease. The two major aspects relating to the development of the demographic transition theory are birth and death rates. These two determine the population of a given place over a given period; therefore, they form the basis for the demographic transition theory. Statisticians express it in terms of the birth and death rates per 1000 people in a population.

Modernization and Demography

The demographic transition theory represents the changes from high death and birth rates to significantly low rates over a given period. The demographic transition model shows the stages that are involved in the reduction of these rates.

It is important to note that the rate at which these changes occur is dependant on the level of industrialization that a give geographical area has experienced (Cadwell and Schindlmayr 418).This brings in the concept of modernization. The concept asserts that human beings will always put efforts to better their life situations.

A good example is the development of automobiles to enhance transport and the invention of medicine to cure some of the diseases that affect humans. It is obvious that different parts of the world differ as far as industrialization and civilization are concerned. Putting this into consideration, the demographic transition theory/model gives the stages that populations pass through as the birth and death rates pass during their decline.

The model has five major stages. The first stage is associated with a low population growth and an equal rate of births and deaths. All human populations were at this stage until the 18^th century when industrialization began in Western Europe. The rates were above 30 per 1000 people. The second stage involves a decrease in death rates while the birth rates remain high which results to population increase. This stage represents the period immediately after the Agricultural Revolution of the 18^th century.

During this period, there was increased food and water supply in most regions of the world especially in the West. The revolution enhanced the improvement of the living standards of the people hence the decrease in death rates. The third stage is the part of the model whereby the population moves towards stability whereby, the birth rates decrease as opposed to the second stage. Owing to this, both the birth and death rates are low at this stage.

With respect to modernization, this stage came into being towards the end of the 19^th century. During this period, technological advancements brought in birth control systems. Women in the society also became educated coupled with propagated urbanization amongst other changes. In the fourth stage, populations attain stability.

One of the cities in America that exhibited almost all these stages is Chicago. Up to the 18^th century, Chicago’s population was in the first stage of the demography model. In the mid-nineteenth century, the population increased tremendously. The birth rate then was 50 births per 1000 people per year.

This is approximately triple the rate of live births exhibited today in Chicago. The current rate is 14-15 live births per 1000 people per year with decreased death rates (Nugent 6). For instance, tuberculosis mortality exhibited a significant drop; between 1892 and 1920, the prevalence of tuberculosis and associated deaths reduced by half. This was due to the improvements in the health sector that included vaccinations, provision of hygiene lessons in schools and pasteurizations.

Conclusion

The demography transition theory helps in explaining the transitions of populations. It asserts that a population goes through four major stages based on the level of modernization. Different populations in the world are at different stages depending on their level of industrialization and civilization.

Works Cited

Cadwell, John, and Schindlmayr, Thomas. Demographic Transition Theory.

Netherlands: Springer, 2006.

Nugent, Walter. “Demography.” Chicago as a modern World City 2.1(2004): 6-8.