BNP Paribas Risk Management and Forecasting

Do you need this or any other assignment done for you from scratch?
We have qualified writers to help you.
We assure you a quality paper that is 100% free from plagiarism and AI.
You can choose either format of your choice ( Apa, Mla, Havard, Chicago, or any other)

NB: We do not resell your papers. Upon ordering, we do an original paper exclusively for you.

NB: All your data is kept safe from the public.

Click Here To Order Now!

World Economy and France

The recent global financial crisis, also considered as the credit crunch, is a dilemma that almost collapsed the majority of the world’s leading economies. Fears of another Great Depression loomed as financial experts became divided on whether the economy can still regain its momentum or not. Some experts say that the recession that began in 2008 was worse than what happened since the Great Depression of the 1930s when the economies in Europe went stale after the effects of the First World War, affecting even the commerce of the United States. But during the Great Depression, the financial crisis was mainly concentrated on the United States and Europe In the recent financial crisis, however, the recession has affected even the strongest economies like Germany and Japan, sweeping even to the Asian region.

The recent financial crisis is a worldwide phenomenon that almost collapsed the entire financial system. Because the world markets are interconnected with each other via trade partnerships and credit, the collapse of one financial institution would result in a domino effect on other financial systems. Now, the term financial crisis is normally used to describe an event where a financial institution or a set of assets suddenly drop in value. Often, it also refers to the bursting of a bubble, a crisis in currency, a market crash, or a nation that defaults in its foreign debt. A financial crisis leads to difficult economic consequences, but it is manageable if suffered only by a single institution or asset, which, in such a case, can be considered a banking failure. However, in this recent crisis, analysts consider it a systemic financial crisis because the entire financial system is in trouble.

Macroeconomics Indicators- Banks and funds across the world have been negatively impacted by the adversities arising from the sub-prime crisis, primarily because borrowers had bought bonds and risks that were directly linked to sub-prime loans. The collapse of the home market highlighted the weakness in different ways because such debt had been framed, especially in regard to the massive risk associated with inaccurately selected risk assessment. The collapse of the US banks in the year 2008 – beginning especially with the Lehman Brothers bank – had a critical impact in triggering an era of crisis that quickly spread into the other parts of the globe as well. As a result of this crisis inter-banking market across the world has quickly dried out. this was added with the additional factors like subtler and more difficult lending conditions, higher prices of borrowing for companies to accumulate capital assets, expand and/or maintain their existing business volumes and constant collapses suffered by the stock markets. The markets reacted swiftly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and there was large-scale redemption of asset-backed securities within a week of the collapse. Financial institutions could not provide for the over $2 trillion worth of credit that they had extended, thereby leading to problems of refinancing by wholesale funding institutions. Conventional sources of funding were not available and banks aimed at improving their financial position by reducing lending. Therefore it became very difficult to borrow across the entire world, which further led to the decline of real estate markets.

The slumping confidence of consumers, which is reflected in the business sectors as well, has become a major factor behind the consistently declining rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The net results of these events have been a more than a noticeable decline in the investment areas of the corporate sector in addition to a major restocking and a compressing experience in the world trade segments as also threatening levels of deterioration in the labor markets across the world – this has been particularly true in the case of property industrial workers

Brief History on BNP

BNP is a financial institution with its headquarters in France and among the fifth largest banks in the world. They offer various products and services which include car loans, consumer loans, housing finance, educational loans, credit cards, Retail Banking, Corporate, Investment, Treasury and Wealth Management. These products and services are offered for individuals, corporate institutions and for government entities both locally and internationally. Retail banking includes a comprehensive range of financial products viz. deposit products, residential mortgage loans, credit cards, auto finance, personal loans, consumer durable loans, loans against equity shares, loans from subscribing to Initial Public Offers, debit cards, bill payment services, mutual funds, investment advisory services. These products provide an opportunity for banks to diversify their asset portfolio with high profitability and relatively low NPAs. Today, the most proactive banks have entered the retail banking segment and have identified it as a principal growth driver. They are slowly gaining market share in the retail space. For several years now, banks viewed consumer loans with skepticism. Commercial loans dominated the bank’s portfolio as they generated high net yields with low credit risk. Consumer loans in contrast involved smaller amounts, large staff to handle accounts and high default rates. They were considered substandard by the banks. Even the regulators across the globe have not encouraged consumer finance till very recently. However, over the recent past, fierce competition among the banks lowered the spreads and profitability of commercial loans. With deregulation and an increase in consumer loan rates, the risk-adjusted returns in the retail sector have exceeded the returns on commercial loans.

Competition, securitization, automation and regulation are the major forces that are driving and shaping consumer lending. Net banking, phone banking, mobile banking, ATMs and bill payments are the new facilities that banks are using not only to lure customers but also to help them reduce their total operating costs. For example, if we look at the Indian Retail Banking market, it is dominated by consumer credit. Even nationalized banks, which control more than two-thirds of the banking business in the country, are tapping retail lending with great vigor. The enormous competition has led to innovative retail banking products that are extremely customer–friendly.

The growth in retail banking has been facilitated by the growth in banking technology and automation of banking processes that enable the extension of reach and rationalization of costs. ATMs have emerged as an alternative banking channel, which facilitates low–cost transactions vis-à-vis traditional branches. It also has the advantage of reducing the branch traffic and enabling banks with small networks to offset the traditional disadvantages by increasing their reach and spread.

The retail banking industry is diverse and competitive. In addition to checking and savings account service, banks offer brokerage and insurance capabilities to manage all aspects of a customer’s financial portfolio. Attracting profitable customers from competitors is essential for long-term success. Retail banking has both pros and cons. In the present situation, the bankers have very little option, but to chant the ‘retail mantra’. Banks today face complex challenges on multiple fronts. Customer expectations are higher than ever, with growing demand for more rapid service delivery and more flexible, personalized interaction.

The bank is owned by many shareholders including AXA, SFPI, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, employees, corporate officers, treasury shares, retail shareholders, institutional investors, socially responsible shareholders, Europe.

Board of Directors

  • Baudouin Prot- Chief Executive Officer
  • Michel Pébereau- Chairman
  • Claude Bébéar
  • Jean-Louis Beffa
  • Suzanne Berger
  • Patrick Auguste
  • Georges Chodron De Courcel- Chief Operating Officer
  • Jan-Laurentonaf- Chief Operating Officer
  • Miclonczaty- chief K Ffice
  • Frédéric Lavenir – head Of Group Human Resources
  • François Villeroy De Galhau- head Of French Retail Banking
  • Janamon -managing director, Head of compliance and internal Control coordinator
  • Philippe Bordenave -Senior Executive Vice-President, Chief Financial Officer

The Competitive position of BNP

The bank’s bank rating is among the best in the banking sector. The bank has many competitors in the international market. In France, the banking sector has been intensely competitive, but the landscape had somehow changed because of the economic problems that hit the world. However, the race is still on for who can offer lower financing, preferred rates and investment services. Because of this, it is imperative that the new executives act on behalf of the customers’ interests because the future of the bank is in the continued patronage of these customers. It is safe to assume that these new managers are aware of their beneficiaries’ expectations because these are the reasons why they have been hired for their new positions. The following is the rating of the bank

Capital Intelligence Fitch Moodys Standard & Poors
AA+ AA- Aa2 AA

Ratio Analysis

Return on Asset- This measures the amount of profit made per value of assets that they own. It gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. This rate has increased from 2009 due to an increase in the total assets.

Net Interest Margin- Net Interest Margin not only indicates the profitability of the bank but also gives more detailed knowledge about risk management by the bank. The bank would want to keep this ratio high to be able to show they are good risk management. Whereas, Net Interest Margin could be valuable in measuring the success of its risk management in terms of managing people’s money.

Ratio Analysis

Return on Equity- Return on equity measures a corporation’s profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. The graph shows the performance of the ratio;

Ratio Analysis

Earnings Per Share -The portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. Earnings per share serve as an indicator of a company’s profitability. The ratio indicates how profitable a company is by comparing its net income to its number of shares outstanding. the performance of this ratio was as shown in the graph below;

Ratio Analysis

Risk Management

Net Interest Margin not only indicates the profitability of the bank but also gives more detailed knowledge about risk management by the bank. The bank would want to keep this ratio high to be able to show they are good risk management. Whereas, Net Interest Margin could be valuable in measuring the success of its risk management in terms of managing people’s money. This ratio is for the bank was decreasing meaning that the risk of the bank was decreasing annually as shown in the excel appendix. The trend curve below shows how the bank was fairing.

This ratio is important in indicating whether a company has sufficient cash to finance its debt. This ratio is, however, limited in that it does not guarantee that the cash flow from operating activities will increase and this is the main concern for the investor.

From excel it can be observed that the bank is very conservative in nature in dealing with risk. However, that attitude might cost any organization a lot of opportunities in return. Bank manages its credit risk exposure by implementing diversification in every business that they do. Their investments, capital markets, and lending and financing activities are diversified to avoid undue concentrations of risks with individuals or groups of customers in specific locations or businesses. It also obtains collaterals when appropriate. The types of collaterals obtained include cash, treasury bills and bonds, a mortgage over real estate properties and a pledge over shares. The group uses the same credit risk procedures when entering into derivative transactions as it does for traditional lending products. The bank is also involved in hedging foreign exchange risk.

Liquidity is the risk that the group will encounter difficulty in meeting obligations associated w/ its financial liabilities. Repayments, which are subject to notice, are treated as if notice were to be given immediately. The group expects that customers will not request repayment before the contractual repayment date. They maintain a portfolio of highly marketable and diverse assets that could be readily liquidated in the event of an unforeseen interruption to cash flow.

Forecasting the Balance Sheet 2012

The excel file shows the forecasted financial statement of the company:

BNP
ADDRESS OF YOUR BANK
Balance Sheet ($’s in millions)
2009 2010 2011 2012*
Cash and amounts due from central banks and post office banks 45,076 33568 37110 40079
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 828784 832,945 924,121 998051
Derivatives used for hedging purposes 5 4,952 5,440 5,590 6037
Available-for-sale financial assets 221,425 219,958 221,389 239100
Loans and receivables due from credit institutions 88,920 62,718 58,030 62672
Loans and receivables due from customers 678,766 684,686 669,782 723365
Re measurement adjustment on interest-rate risk hedged portfolios 2,407 2,317 1,145 1237
Held-to-maturity financial assets 14,023 13,773 13,588 14675
Current and deferred tax assets 12,117 11,557 10,116 10925
Accrued income and other assets 103,361 83,124 98,231 106089
Investments in associates 4,761 4,798 4,558 4923
Investment property 11,872 12,327 11,469 12387
Property, plant and equipment 17,056 17,125 17,235 18614
Intangible assets 2,199 2,498 2,371 2561
Goodwill 5 10,979 11,324 11,098 11986
TOTAL ASSETS 2,046,698 1,964,590 2,048,723 2,212,621
Due to central banks and post office banks 5,510 2,123 1,693 1,828
Financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss 709,337 725,105 690,339 826,981
Derivatives used for hedging purposes 8,108 8,480 7,235 7,814
Due to credit institutions 220,696 167,985 117,004 126,364
Due to customers 604,903 580,913 556,976 607,231
Debt securities 211,029 208,669 223,495 241,375
Re measurement adjustment on interest-rate risk hedged portfolios 356 301 18,301 19,765
Current and deferred tax liabilities 4,762 3,745 3,031 3,273
Accrued expenses and other liabilities 72,425 65,229 91,881 99,231
Technical reserves of insurance companies 101,555 114,918 117,256 126,636
Provisions for contingencies and charges 10,464 10,311 10,810 11,675
Subordinated debt 22,876 21,030
Total liabilities 1,949,145 1,887,779 1,860,897 2,093,204
EQUITY
Share capital and additional paid-in capital 25061 25659 26,321 26321
Retained earnings 37433 40961 63,523 63523
Net income for the period attributable to shareholders 5832 7843 8,381 8638
Change in assets and liabilities recognized directly in equity 1175 169 23981 897
Shareholders’ equity 69501 74632
Retained earnings and net income for the period attributable to minority interests 11060 11293 12309 7892
Change in assets and liabilities recognized directly in equity -215 -217 -126 10
Total minority interests 10344 10997 10999 12135
Total consolidated equity 160191 171337 187,826 119416
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 2,109,336 2,059,116 2,048,723 2,212,620

Forecasting the Income Statement 2012:

BNP
Pro Forma Income Statement
For the Year 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012*
Interest Income 46460 47388 46782 56606
Interest Expense (25439) (23328) (24755) (29706)
Net gain/loss on financial instruments at fair value through profit or loss 6085 5109 5325 5263
Net gain/loss on available-for-sale financial assets and other financial assets not measured in fair value 436 452 621 698
Income from other activities 28781 30385 33601 36521
Expense on other activities (23599) (24612) (27830) (29532)
Fee and Commission Income 12276 13857 15321 17625
Fee and Commission Expense (4809) (5371) (6241) (7123)
Revenues 40191 43880 42824 50352
Operating expense (21958) (24924) (22254) (26521)
Depreciation, amortization and impairment of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets (1382) (1953) (2131) (2236)
gross operating income 16851 17003 18439 21595
Cost of risk (8369) (4802) (5212) (5692)
Net Operating Income 8482 12201 13227 15903
Share of earnings of associates 178 268 365 456
Net gain on non-current assets 87 269 398 752
Goodwill (78) 253 785 (263)
Profit Before Income Taxes 8669 12991 14775 16848
Corporate income tax (2526) (3856) (4386) (5001)
Profit for the Year from Continuing Operations 6143 9135 10389 11847
Attributable to:
minority interest (642) (1321) (1502) (1713)
Profit for the Year 5501 7814 8887 10134
Do you need this or any other assignment done for you from scratch?
We have qualified writers to help you.
We assure you a quality paper that is 100% free from plagiarism and AI.
You can choose either format of your choice ( Apa, Mla, Havard, Chicago, or any other)

NB: We do not resell your papers. Upon ordering, we do an original paper exclusively for you.

NB: All your data is kept safe from the public.

Click Here To Order Now!