A Scenario Analysis of the Railway Industry in Britain

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Table of Contents

Introduction
Risks to Business of a Repeat Failure of the Seawall
Contingency Service Provision in the event of Future Seawall Section Failure
Available Possible Traction Options
Change Management Processes Required to Achieve Decarbonization Target of 2050
Conclusion
Reference List

Introduction

To a greater extent, the rail business in Britain has suffered repetitive weather and climate-associated infrastructural damage, mainly the sea wall section between Dawlish Warren and Teignmouth. As a result, the railway industry must embrace business resilience, whereby the National Rail adapts to the impending disruptions while maintaining constant venture operations and protecting individuals, general brand equity, and assets. There is a need to have increased investigative and management practices in place, particularly during reactive and proactive rail emergency management due to the frequent breakdowns and lack of electrification in the west of Exeter ST. David’s up to Penzance station; change management should be adopted for feasible rail innovation. The paper will discuss the attached risks of the repeated failure of seawall, identify contingency service provisions, explain available traction options present, and elaborate on the necessary change management processes to ensure the decarbonization target.

Risks to Business of a Repeat Failure of the Seawall

Historically, there has been rail infrastructural destruction in the west of Exeter due to repetitive weather and climate change, mainly at the seawall part between Dawlish Warren and Teignmouth. Significantly, seawall foundering has caused massive long-term rail network disruptions and breakdowns in service operations. As a result, uncertainties have been attached to the local ventures and the community and other risks linked with the incumbent train operating companies (TOCs), freight operating companies (FOCs), and the Network Rail.

Firstly, the rail business suffers various threats due to the repeated failure of the seawall. In that case, the venture encounters the risk to economic activity. The merchandise significantly depends on their daily travels to record the much-needed profits for the payment of the workers and ensure continuous operations. However, seawall damage prevents individuals from traversing from Exeter St. David’s to Penzance using the railway line. The phenomenon indicates that enterprises seek alternative measures, including hiring private jets to transport goods and commodities. The businesses record low profits and loss of potential clients due to the repeat revetment failures in Dawlish (Boles, 2019). In that case, there are high chances of experiencing contractual risks since the businesses cannot meet the obligations demanded by their customers. The huge storms destroy the seawalls, causing the ventures that rely on the railway to experience mistrust with the stakeholders (Nunn et al., 2021). When the sales drop, the businesses lose potential financial support from donors, as they do not know how long seawall failure lasts. Such strategies make the ventures face bankruptcy problems as they lose market share to the competitors.

Secondly, the local merchandise and the community west of Teignmouth face multiple uncertainties associated with seawall destruction. According to the statistical reports, approximately 150000 individuals live close to the Exeter St. David’s railway (Eslami & Eslami, 2018). Society and merchandizes suffer as benefits associated with rail transportation, including increased agricultural productivity decline resulting from floods caused by anthropogenic climate change (Eslami & Eslami, 2018). However, they continue to face the risk of flooding and erosion to farmland and property from the sea. In addition, health risks are inevitable to societal members. The seawall failure engenders people to drowning and drives extensive disease outbreaks from the stagnant water and sewerage. Severe flooding in the region causes people to have robust mental torture. The local businesses depend on various attraction sites whereby they make reputable incomes. The Teignmouth region has numerous historic Georgian structures, fresh local food, and long sandy beaches (Boles, 2019). As a result, the repeated failure of seawalls causes extensive financial risk to local businesses. There is limited access to the promenade and the beach. Even though the government closes such reaction and leisure sites to ensure safety for the community, local ventures suffer elongated economic deterioration. Nevertheless, the local community is prone to service risks. The storms destroy the much-needed daily amenities, including nursing homes, schools, hospitals, electricity installations, fire, ambulance, and police stations. The business owners of such facilities record financial problems, prompting them to close them.

Britain’s four main freight operating companies include DB Cargo UK, GB Railfreight, Freightliner, and Direct Rail Services. They face the delay risks caused by natural disasters, including storms, when the seawalls fail. In that case, they cannot deliver client goods to the final destinations (‘Maintaining Business Resilience,’ n.d). When such organizations stall distributing goods on time, they lose huge monies. Significantly, the entities lose many customers due to the missed deadlines and additional costs attached to the shipping costs of the transported products (Nunn et al., 2021). The FOCs face legal risks, particularly when they lose cargo due to seawall failures. The department of transport (DfT) can revoke the business operation of the firms due to bleaching the contractual agreements for the speedy delivery of goods and frequency of light (Boles, 2019). Notably, the TOCs, responsible for running passenger services and mandated with leasing and managing rail stations from Network Rail, experience multiple risks. At first, they record significant financial losses as transportation stops when there is seawall failure. However, they continue paying for the lease as per the contractual agreements. The maintenance uncertainties become inevitable as the communication networks are destroyed.

On the other hand, the Network Rail is responsible for repairing the railway when damages occur due to repetitive damages caused by seawall failure. The study indicates that the company spends nearly $80 million on maintaining Dawlish Warren’s revetment (Eslami & Eslami, 2018). Massive storms trigger rock falls and shifting of the rails in their correct positions. In addition, the organization suffers from strategic risks, as the people lose confidence in the management, particularly when they lack innovative measures to curb the issue (‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). The unsuccessful seawall erections deterred the realization of a strong and reliable transportation network in the United Kingdom.

Finally, there are control and investigative practices in reactive and proactive rail emergency management. The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) undertakes investigative work on railway incidents that cause death, extensive damage, and serious injuries (Eslami & Eslami, 2018). The Rail Network has drafted rail emergency plans and guidelines, embraced several technologies, and partnered with the meteorological department to ensure early warnings are early and adequately mitigated. The strategies curtail the severe occurrence of seawall failure. Many stakeholder meetings are being executed earlier to educate the communities and the business owners regarding preparedness. When evaluated, the proactive measures are effective as even if there are seawall failures, the number of fatalities and property damages has dramatically reduced (‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). Considerably, the uncertainties posed by rail transport of flammable liquids, crude oil, and volatile chemicals during seawall failure is one of the highest obstacles for emergency responders. Industrial hazardous strategic teams and precaution measures are in place to curb the further escalation of the damages.

Contingency Service Provision in the event of Future Seawall Section Failure

From the business resilience viewpoint, three crucial contingency service provisions must be adopted in the event of future seawall section failure. To a greater extent, it is highly unacceptable to have long-haul network disruptions and service breakdowns in particular regions, including the Midlands, North of England, and Cross Country. This is because they have resulted in extensive risks affecting local businesses, communities, TOCs, Network Rail, and FOCs. The first provision involves having an environmental agency in place as per the British policies only activated upon request (‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). The service will supply the required materials to minimize the probability of flooding in the Dawlish region by deploying risk management techniques, including flood and coastal defense systems (Jackson et al., 2020). In that case, railway infrastructural damage will be reduced due to destroyed seawalls as there are sufficient spate warnings, land use, and emergency planning. The construction of a feasible household resilience plan against flooding is crucial.

More information would be available at the UK government portal, which gives a range of generic deluge planning advisory services to the society members of the west of Exeter. The residents will prepare adequately and monitor themselves closely as they know who is in danger together with their property. Significantly, property insurance and recovery systems can be in place for the affected individuals near the railway. When seawall failure happens in the future, an updated online checklist will help the Network Rail and the people start planning. This includes the movement of valuable assets and contact lists. Significantly, railway infrastructure properties have a limited lifecycle, and extreme weather conditions can destroy them (Shan & Yan, 2017). The contingency service provision’s innovation proposal entails having digitalized climate detection and monitoring systems in case of further seawall destruction. This proposal ensures that businesses can adapt to disruptions while undertaking key operations and safeguarding the rail assets (Zhang & Pan, 2020). The suggestion provides a vital decision-making process and assessing the climate change risks. In addition, all the stakeholders will be integrated and improve their comprehension of the seawall failure.

The other notable contingency service provision includes extensive training for all involved non-skilled and expert workers. Without adequate knowledge of what must be done during a disruption, the operations will continue to be significantly affected. In case of future seawall failure in the Dawlish Warren region, the trained personnel can appropriately fix the existing flood schemes. In addition, they will provide increased assistance in the obstruction’s clearance and barrier maintenance. The railway management human resource collaborates with local partners in emergency response, incident control, and flood awareness (Shan & Yan, 2017). Extensive education helps develop investigative methods to relocate the railway infrastructural assets from the risk areas. The workforce will ensure that the seawall can be monitored frequently and repaired after installation. Significantly, the seawall failure is due to cap and anchor road deterioration, insufficient panel penetration, and poor maintenance (Jackson et al., 2020). However, with the trained laborers in place, when repeated seawall damage occurs, the team can access the weather and climate conditions prompting the circumstance earlier. The workforce receives more information on determining the rise of tides. The innovation proposal attached to the training is adopting digital train control technology. In most instances, seawalls are ineffective and tend to destroy rail amenities, destroying operational disruption and service breakdown along the west of Exeter St. David’s. However, after receiving the required knowledge regarding the digital railway strategy, there can be easy identification and prioritization of the scheme enabling sufficient infrastructural renewals and train fitment. With the digital train control deployment, all the Network Rail roots will have traffic management tools monitored by trained experts to predict and prevent timetable conflicts and recover services speedily when disruption occurs.

Another feasible contingency scheme is embracing communication and providing funding services through engagement with the local community. The Dawlish societal resilience board should receive grants to purchase the necessary equipment, including sand stores, sandbags, and emergency road signs. The railway faces massive signaling, earthworks, bridges, and structure failures (‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). However, with the partnership with the community members, they can alert of weak points of the seawall and take necessary precautionary measures during the emergence. The innovation proposal includes embracing digital service recovery arrangements through conveyance (Boles, 2019). To a greater extent, this will ensure that the community alerts Network Rail of the crucial destruction of the railway along the Dawlish (‘Maintaining Business Resilience,’ n.d). The phenomenon will result in expedited recovery and a speedy return to the typical timetable. As a result, there will be a reduction in the general disruption to entice clients by providing an elaborate, integrated, and balanced service. The brand equity of the TOCs will be maintained as the customers have good perceptions and experiences with them. Even if the scenario discussed reoccurs severally, the attached risks will be significantly reduced.

The simplest contingency service plan of the three options is offering training to the railway management staff. It highlights the actions taken to effectively respond to the emergencies during the sudden collapse of the seawall occurrence. The first undertaking involves defining the responsibilities and roles of the trained response team. They will communicate with the victims to move to safe locations and ensure that the consumers do not use the railway during disruption (Eslami & Eslami, 2018). In addition, due to increased emergency training response preparedness, there would be the provision of first aid to the injured people and determination of the destructive impact on the rail assets. There would be an accurate conveyance of information to all the rail network stakeholders and the general public. Lastly, there would be proper documentation of the progress as the event prevails.

The three schemes’ core aspects involve reducing the seawall impacts. The digital element is crucial in ensuring that revetment risks are significantly reduced. Each of the selected contingency options has significant dependencies and implications. The environmental policy services require ample time to execute as crucial agencies, including TOCs, RAIB, and FOCs, must be consulted and integrated to ensure that they provide insights during the development of weather and climate warning systems. The resources required are money and policy developers to ensure that the contingency plan renders extensive benefits. Regarding the training service, the cost implications are inevitable. Educating skilled and manual laborers requires extensive planning and high budgets (Zhang & Pan, 2020). The resources needed include the emergency response team, the Network Rail trainers, and the education and information materials containing the seawall database. Lastly, the contingency provision of embedding communication and grant services has significant implications and dependencies. At first, it reduces the booking and transportation time, mainly when disruptions happen. However, key resources, such as the railway workforce, technological devices, and capital, are needed to achieve digital arrangements.

Available Possible Traction Options

The far west of Exeter lacks electrification, and there is a high absence of immediate plans to replace the technologies that use fossil fuels and diesel in the railway infrastructure westwards. As a result, the diesel traction, which significantly does not support the sector’s aim of decarbonization, continues to prevail. However, electric drive traction is available, whereby the train operates through present mechanical energy. Compared to diesel traction, the electric drive significantly helps ensure eco-friendly transportation. This is because there is no need to store coal, which, when they burn, contaminate the atmosphere. The alternative provides zero-carbon technology since the electrical connecting system is neat and clean (Ronanki et al., 2017). While diesel traction trains operate for longer periods and emit harmful greenhouse gases, electric train operates for a shorter time without any ecological damage. The rail can significantly enjoy environmental advantages over other modes and utilize renewable energy sources, including wind, hydro, and wave power, instead of burning fossil fuels. In an ideal world, the west of Exeter, St. David’s railway can electrify their networks.

Electric traction provides massive benefits compared to diesel, making it easy to purchase and maintain. As a result of the regenerative braking system, there is reduced power consumption. Change is unavoidable; therefore, the Network Rail should adopt bi-mode trains that help reduce the carbon menace. The electrification of the westwards lines of Exeter, it will indicate the elimination of gallons of diesel bought to power the trains. The Britain government is adopting decarbonization measures to reach total electrification (Elavarasan et al., 2022). However, to optimize the amount of traffic undertaken by the electric traction, electrification projects should conform with the crucial train service sequence to retrieve maximum benefits. The frequent level rise in the ocean is due to climate change spearheaded by the negative impacts of diesel traction(‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). Later, the storms occur, which destroy the seawalls, leading to damage to the railway system. This vicious cycle can be adequately managed by deploying electric traction with zero carbon emissions.

The battery and the hydrogen power have been highly recommended due to their massive advantages in promoting decarbonization. Therefore, another alternative is hydrogen fuel cell or battery hybrid propulsion technology (‘Maintaining Business Resilience,’ n.d). This innovative electrification technology in the railway has proven to eliminate emissions at vital utilization points, such as terminals and yards. The rail industry’s primary objective should be attaining a carbon dioxide-free economy. Compared to diesel traction, hydrail power substantially enhances the vibration and noise (Fei et al., 2019). Hydrogen traction in the hydrail system converts chemical power to electrical energy by integrating oxygen and hydrogen to obtain several by-products, including steam, water, and electricity.

The rail industry can employ the technology as the passenger trains only emit water during use. To a greater extent, the hydrail has been proven via lifecycle assessment to highly minimize emissions and enhance efficiencies over their lifetime, particularly when compared to diesel traction (Ronanki et al., 2017). Even though hydrogen does not serve as a decarbonization silver bullet, it is greatly required. Since it is released from other molecular types, using carbon capture and storage ensures the attainment of zero-effluent objectives (‘Maintaining Business Resilience,’ n.d). The study reports indicate that hydrogen traction needs 3kW of electricity for the 1kW delivery of powering the rail. The communities along the west of Exeter will encounter fewer health-related problems caused by diesel emissions. However, even though hydrogen traction allows for future environmental sustainability, it is highly costlier (Fei et al., 2019). As a result, with the rapid disruptions due to seawall failure, the TOCs, FOCs, and Network Rail may record significant losses or prompt the increment of transportation costs from the consumers. The fuel cells and hydrogen trains have identical performance qualities as the diesel ones and are highly cost-effective. The technology highly complements the electrification in the move to ensure the achievement of a complete decarbonization transformation.

The last but not the least present option is battery traction, which is the future of the rail industry in Britain. Even though battery technology is significantly gaining market attention, it is likely to play an inferior responsibility in future railway traction. There is a need for constant charging of the battery at consistent intervals. Even though the rail transport mode serves as the most eco-friendly and sustainable network, there is still a high possibility for advancement in its carbon footprint (‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). Therefore, rail innovation is necessary for full functionality and minimization of climatic changes. In the west of Exeter, 100 percent of the trains utilize diesel tractions, which are not clean as they emit a substantial amount of greenhouse gases (Ronanki et al., 2017). Adopting and implementing the battery traction ensures high transport performance and acts as the best substitute as the technology has low carbon for propulsion. The decarbonized railway can be achieved by deploying battery traction. Even though it is quite more expensive than diesel, it offers immense benefits.

Change Management Processes Required to Achieve Decarbonization Target of 2050

Change management refers to an elaborate strategy for transforming rail industry organizations to achieve a desired future state of decarbonization. For business sustainability, adaptation is necessary. Kotter’s model deploys an 8-step approach to undertake the change management process (Galli, 2018). The Network Rail network struggles to handle issues associated with the quick adoption of electrification, particularly in the west of Exeter. The initial step involves developing a sense of urgency. The rails account for approximately 2 percent of total transport effluents in the UK (Elavarasan et al., 2022). The change needs to ensure low carbon to avoid the weather and climate change conditions, which tend to cause the raised ocean levels, leading to repetitive seawall failure.

Firstly, the company requires all the involved parties, including the staff, to work on innovative measures and realize how the transformations benefit the organization. The reduction of carbon dioxide per the passenger-kilometer is essential. Motivating and encouraging workers to support the decarbonization change is essential to achieving the zero-carbon target in 2050. All the stakeholders, customers, and market leaders, including FOCs, TOCs, and local business owners, indicated that they would continue to face the emission challenge if an urgent need is not adopted and adopted (Jackson et al., 2020). In the west of Exeter, the lack of electrification has engendered the use of diesel traction, resulting in a high rail carbon footprint. However, removing diesel-only trains and combining bi-mode, hydrogen, fuel cell technologies, and electrification can reduce the menace and achieve zero-net carbon.

Another change management process involves guiding coalition formation. The process of decarbonization mandates the stakeholders to integrate into the transformation process. Identifying the actual leaders who will spearhead achieving the change is necessary. The selected leaders from the FOCs, TOCs, and the Network Rail should be allocated different roles and responsibilities whereby they analyze the risks and obstacles related to the decarbonization change (Elavarasan et al., 2022). The study reports indicate financial, strategic, and implementation uncertainties are inevitable while achieving carbon footprints (‘Managing the Railway Business,’ n.d). Diversifying personnel provides the required skills and expertise to undertake performance measures, whether improvements have been realized in minimizing carbon emissions.

The third sequence toward realizing the decarbonization target by 2050 includes developing a strategic vision and programs. The change entails 100 percent eliminating carbon dioxide emissions in the west of Exeter railway. Strictly adhering to the traction decarbonization network strategy (TDNS) recommendations, such as transparent and constant long-haul environmental policy, helps reduce the effluents (Elavarasan et al., 2022). The doubts about abolishing diesel traction should be addressed, and the clarification on how the future varies from the past need consideration. The economic merits of minimal accidents, energy savings, and reduced adverse effects of air pollution on health are derived from zero-emissions public transportation (‘Maintaining Business Resilience,’ n.d). When everyone understands the common objective of the organization, the implemented directives produce optimum influence.

The fourth change management process involves thorough communication of the decarbonization vision. The Network Rail must understand the need for change to avoid resistance to change. Decarbonization may engender worker retrenchment, particularly whereby new expertise on the operation of new electric trains is a big challenge. The transformation should embrace training initiatives geared toward educating the workforce on new capabilities (Fei et al., 2019). As a result, the transformation becomes easy to implement. The fifth step involves empowering all parties to enact action by eliminating challenges. The decarbonization change in rail encounters multiple barriers, including frequent emissions from other modes of transportation. The reward of the human resource undertaking the transformation is necessary. The elimination of obstacles and hierarchies creates full room for freedom to ensure the exchange of ideas and experiences.

In addition, the generation of short-term successes creates the necessary motivation for realizing long-haul wins. The achievement of zero carbon emission by 2050 is not a walk to the park. However, executing smaller targets, such as 50 percent emission in rail transportation, will inspire the stakeholders to believe in the decarbonization target (Eslami & Eslami, 2018). The embracement of milestones, including switching to clean fuels and increased reliability on electrification, ensures the slow attainment of carbon neutrality. Continuously communicating and rewarding short-term successes enables the partners to realize that the zero-carbon target is attainable. The seventh change management process entails sustaining acceleration to avoid future target failure. The quick wins should not be translated into long-term goals. There is a need to have trajectories of implementing digital railway, which works at minimizing effluents. The industry stakeholders should frequently analyze what impedes the decarbonization target (Galli, 2018). The momentum of change is required by embracing systems that track the progress of how carbon emissions are reduced. The persistent workability of the guiding coalition teamwork and the change leaders enables realizing the fundamental improvements, including embracing electrification in the west of Exeter region.

Lastly, there is a massive need to incorporate change into the organizational culture. The whole organization’s members should be aware of all the decarbonization transformations needed. A feasible work plan ensures tracking of the progress made towards electrification. The internal factors, including communication and employee support, are crucial. The McKinsey 7S model advocates ensuring that the Network Rail solves all the impeding challenges that may deter shifting of the diesel traction. With Kotter’s 8-step model, the change management process can achieve the decarbonization target by 2050 (Galli, 2018). All the necessary stakeholders integrate and communicate innovative plans for zero emissions in the rail industry. The electrification transformation leads to carbon neutrality, which makes the companies curb the climate and weather conditions, including rising ocean levels that cause seawall failure.

Conclusion

Conclusively, the report has showcased that seawall failure results in many risks affecting the TOCs, FOCs, local businesses, the surrounding community, and the Network Rail. For instance, the societal members suffer from flood risks, which destroy their farmlands and properties. In addition, health uncertainties are inevitable for them as they suffer from drowning and diseases. Organizational resilience is needed to ensure effective adaptation to disruptions while maintaining operations and protecting brand equity, people, and assets. The contingency services provisions, including training, environmental plans, and communication and funding schemes, are necessary in the event of the future failure of the seawalls. In the west of Exeter, no electrification indicates that diesel traction is highly used. However, using electrical, battery, and hydrogen technologies can reduce carbon emissions significantly. Kotter’s 8-step approach is the most effective change management model. By deploying the theory, businesses can achieve the decarbonization target by 2050.

Reference List

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