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Estimating project activity durations is critical to the project budgeting proce
Estimating project activity durations is critical to the project budgeting process. Compare and contrast top-down versus bottom-up estimating and discuss how the project costs are influenced by the quality and accuracy of estimates.
Respond to the two classmates below in 1-2 paragraphs each.
1
Top-down and bottom-up estimating are two contrasting approaches used in project management for estimating activity durations. Top-down estimating involves deriving estimates for project activities based on historical data, expert judgment, or high-level assumptions. It’s often quicker and less detailed, providing a broad overview of project timelines and costs. On the other hand, bottom-up estimating involves breaking down project activities into smaller, more manageable tasks and estimating the duration and resources required for each task individually. This approach is more time-consuming but tends to result in more accurate estimates by considering the specifics of each activity.
The quality and accuracy of estimates significantly influence project costs. Poor estimates can lead to cost overruns, delays, and resource misallocation. In top-down estimating, inaccurate high-level assumptions or insufficient historical data may result in underestimation or overestimation of project durations and costs. Conversely, bottom-up estimating, with its detailed approach, provides a more accurate reflection of project requirements and potential risks, leading to more reliable cost estimates. High-quality estimates help project managers allocate resources efficiently, set realistic budgets, and identify potential risks early on, ultimately contributing to project success and adherence to budget constraints.
2
I own a grocery store with my cousin. We have had it since 2009. Before we bought it, we sat together and broke down what we thought we needed to make sure we had a successful foundation and have a successful store. We broke down how much rent would be. Utilities, taxes, projected sales, hours the store would be open- how many people we would need to man those hours. We factored in how much our initial investment would be. We also factored in how we would pay back that initial investment and how much a month we could afford. We then took in account how much the mark up would be. That let to show how much profit we might expect.
For example, my father had a store. He was making serious bank. We were not going anywhere near his sales. However, we took a fraction of his sales- 25%. For this example, lets say on a given Thursday, he made $5000. We took 25% of that. $1250.00. From that $1250.00 we multiplied by 25%. That would be are markup/profit. $312.00 a day in profit. Over a month that is $9375.00. We then subtract rent, electricity, employee wage, tax, etc. That leaves us with a business making crap money. RUN FOR THE HILLS IF THIS IS YOUR BOTTOM LINE!
The point of this example is Bottom up allows us to break down every factor that might be present, accounting for it financially, putting a budget together and seeing what is needed to be successful.
Top Down might be harder to plan. I can tell my cousin “Hey idiot- we have $5000 a month that is needed. Lets make millions. But if we don’t factor in the expenses, breakdown and not use projections with a defining expense, we will not succeed. (My cousin is a business genius, by the way. Annoying as hell, but smart)
Making sure you take into consideration everything you need to pay out before you do gives you a plan on how to proceed. Bottom Up is the way to go…It is also a cool saying when you want to get hammered. BOTTOMS UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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