Machines Chances of Replacing Humans at Work

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Table of Contents

Introduction
The nature of technology
The impact of technology on the labor market
Investigating the sources of information
Conclusion
References

Introduction

To many people the technology with its liberality has been and always will be a bridge to the future. To many others, however, it has been a source of concern for a long time. The modern technological advances are such that the questions and problems that three decades ago would have arisen only in science fiction today have become pressing matters, at least in the terms of the labor market. The media arouses the suspicions that in a short-term perspective the robots and computers will deprive people of their jobs. On the other hand, there exists an opinion stating that progress would allow people to perform less routine work and devote more time to their families, hobbies and leisure, provided that the level of income will not be reduced. Both of these beliefs have a right to exist, and although it would be difficult to describe every way modernization influences the ways of employment, and eventually will influence the everyday life the society was used to, some of the most prominent examples, such as self-driving vehicles and autonomous industrial machines deserve a more detailed examination.

The nature of technology

Autonomous driving is an example of technology that has recently turned from being a concept to an actual and substantial solution. The idea has been under development for many years, and some breakthroughs had been made as early as the 1980-s, but the real effort has been put into the research of this technology at the beginning of the XXI century by Google Inc. and other major companies, for example, automotive giants Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Renault, Nissan, and Peugeot-Citroen, as well as numerous research organizations. Today even a distinction between self-driving and autonomous vehicles has been defined, according to an article in The Economist Explains:

Autonomous cars will look like the vehicles we drive today & these cars will take over from the driver under certain circumstances& Self-driving cars are a stage further on. The steering wheel will disappear completely and the vehicle will do all the driving using the same system of sensors, radar and GPS mapping that autonomous vehicles employ. (Why autonomous and self-driving cars are not the same par. 2)

Such vehicles include not only passenger cars but also trucks, buses, and other industrial machines. The article by M. Bertoncello and D. Wee from McKinsey & Company brings forward a conservative prediction that by 2020-2022 the autonomous vehicles will become a solid reality for some industrial environments, like farming and mining, where the limited number of necessary operations and the use of private roads may facilitate the technology adoption, and eventually form a commercial fleet for parcel delivery, along with the use of automated drones (Bertoncello and Wee par. 3-4). By that time loaders, forklifts and excavators would probably already have a degree of autonomy, and by 2040 the first autonomous vehicles on public roads might feature the on-highway trucks, which along with automated drones may lay the foundation of commercial delivery fleets (Bertoncello and Wee par. 4).

The impact of technology on the labor market

That kind of technology may become a solution for the problem of truck-driver shortage, which becomes more evident every day. According to a report by American Trucking Associations, the current shortage rises to 47,500 and by 2024 will potentially amount to 174,500 drivers. (Costello and Suarez 6). The ATA also views the autonomous trucks as one of the solutions to relieve the shortage: We are still years away from truly driverless Class 8 trucks running on the highway as a normal part of the industry & even though the technology is available, there are numerous limiting factors that prevent it from being used by carriers, [but] eventually & one could envision an environment when the longer, line-haul portion of truck freight movements are completed by autonomous trucks and local pick-up and delivery routes are completed by drivers (Costello and Suarez 11). However, not all industries perceive the current and future impact of technology on the labor market as positive. For example, aside from the self-driving vehicles, the existing technology of mobile applications for ride-hailing services, which is widely used by companies such as Uber, Lyft, and Gett, has split society into two conflicting parties. Only a year has passed from the day Uber CEO Travis Kalanick made promises that Uber will once replace their drivers with autonomous cars and make the use of Uber services cheaper than owning a car (Newton par.1), to the moment when the disputes between taxi driver community and Uber became quite violent in Australia, France, India, and Canada. The technological success of the ride-sharing companies was so unnerving that the behavior of conservative unions started to resemble that of the Luddites in the XIX century. Their concerns can be explained, if not justified, because according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by 2012 around 233,000 people were employed as taxi drivers or chauffeurs in the USA, with a median income around $22,820 per year (Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor par. 1). If the modernization of the taxi ordering and ride-sharing system became an acute topic today, it also has the potential to become even more urgent if the Kalanicks promises will once come true. The industry and the society should develop a strategy that will allow embracing new technology without prejudice to the labor market, and managing the adaptation processes for people whose professions will be unclaimed or rarely claimed in the future.

Investigating the sources of information

In matters of technology upgrades, the situation is changing so quickly that in fact, the search for reliable sources of information becomes extremely difficult. Nevertheless, the main principles of doing reliable research, which include relevance, verifiability, and neutrality (Hudspeth par. 6) are valid in this case as well. Most of the sources used in this paper with minor exceptions are Web sources. While the information on the Web stays the most accessible, frequently updated, relevant and diverse data resource, its credibility is often questionable. Some ways exist to determine the credibility of a source, which are applicable to the evaluation of information found online. First of all, according to a Purdue Writing Lab guide, it is important to determine the author of the work, his or her purpose, the source type and its relevance, especially when dealing with such advanced and pivotal topics as the aforementioned modern technologies; in case the Web source needs evaluation, one should never use Web sites where an author cannot be determined unless the site is associated with a reputable institution such as a respected university, a credible media outlet, government program or department, or well-known non-governmental organizations (Weida and Stolley par. 10). Still, it may be argued that the constant checks for the accuracy of information used can turn to a useful, but fruitless process due to the continuously incoming news that can render the sources irrelevant in a very short time. The situation in the field of applied sciences, computer sciences, and high-tech changes quickly, the predictions and analytics that seemed true some time ago, very soon become outdated. It means that in a research area that deals with innovation the relevance and neutrality of the information sources will in some ways prevail upon their verifiability.

Conclusion

In conclusion it can be said that while the so-called technological singularity is still mostly a concept of science fiction, the modern advances in technology, engineering, robotics and computer science make the world debate over the issues that are becoming evident today and have the potential of turning into major problems if these issues are not addressed. The progress cannot be stopped, and even the most conservative and retrogressive individuals are aware of that, but it may have a negative impact on the short-term perspective; so it is essential to find a solution to mitigate its effects and facilitate the transition to a new post-industrial society, which may be different from what one may see now, but without a doubt will also have its advantages and disadvantages the people will have to deal with. However, it is a fair assumption to say that in the next two decades humans will still be an integral part of the job market, with a creative approach to problem-solving and unique horizon scanning capabilities while the machines will be aiding and improving the efficiency of labor to the common advantage.

References

Bertoncello, Michelle and D. Wee 2015, Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world. Web.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor 2014, Occupational Outlook

Handbook, 2014-15 Edition, Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs. Web.

Costello, Bob and R. Suarez 2015, Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2015. Web.

Hudspeth, Jackie n.d. Reliable Research: How to Determine If a Source is Credible & Accurate. n.d. Web. 2015.

Newton, Casey 2014, Uber will eventually replace all its drivers with self-driving cars. Web.

Weida, Stacey and K. Stolley 2013. Using Research and Evidence. Web.

Why autonomous and self-driving cars are not the same. The Economist explains. The Economist Group, 2015. Web.

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