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El Niño Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) is characterized by an increase in the ocean surface temperature in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean. It affects rainfall distribution and can strongly affect weather patterns in the United States and the rest of the world (Liberto, 2014). In general, I believe that it is challenging to predict the changes to ENSO influencing climate change because there are multiple contributing factors affecting it. Climate change can weaken or strengthen the weather pattern, which is associated with ENSO. For example, according to the article by Liberto (2014) in which the information from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reported, usually, below-average rains take place across Indonesia. However, following the climate models, the amount of seasonal rainfall will increase in this area because of the temperature rise. This shows how the ocean and atmosphere can change and affect ENSO, which, in turn, will alter the weather patterns.
In the future, the emission of greenhouse gases will continue to escalate. Along with the internal climate variations, this will lead to changes in precipitation and temperature patterns in the upcoming decades. The areas which are affected by the increase in temperature undergo the most significant evaporative stress and become drier. As a result, there would be not enough moisture to buffer the activity of El Niño. Climate change will also affect the relationship between temperature and wildfire probability. In Libertos (2018), the Community Earth System Model represents that in the Southern region of the United States, the colder-than-average temperature was even cooler. This means that the anomaly of wildfire probability will reduce during El Niño in the following decades because of the connection described above.
Reference
Liberto, T. D. (2014). ENSO + Climate Change = Headache. Climate. Web.
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