Brexit: Britain’s Decision to Leave the EU and Its Possible Consequences

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The word ‘Brexit’ is a combination of two words ‘Britain’ and ‘Exit’. The United Kingdom decided to leave the EU 3 years on June 2016. There were total of 72.2% voters and 51.9% voted in favor of Brexit and 42.1% vote against the notion. The supporters of Brexit won the margin by 3.8% which was enough for the government to come to the decision of leaving the European Union. The due date of leaving the EU was 29th March 2019 that’s two years after invoking Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty. But the deal has been rejected 3 times by the MP’s so the government negotiated with the EU for an extension to the deadline for Brexit. The initial extension was on 12th April 2019 but after the 3rd rejection of the deal, the UK government negotiated another extension of six months. So, the final date for Britain to leave the EU is 31st October 2019.

Reason for Brexit

Reclaiming sovereignty was at the forefront of the Leave campaign. For Leave supporters, European institutions have changed beyond recognition since 1973, and they accuse the EU of becoming a suffocating bureaucracy with ever-expanding regulations.

Immigration was the leading complaint. The number of EU migrants in the UK nearly tripled between 2004 and 2015, from about one million to over three million, almost totally due to an influx of citizens from newer members including Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania.

At the same time, terror attacks in Paris and Brussels involving EU citizens raised fears that the free movement of people leaves the UK vulnerable. With over three thousand EU nationals having traveled to Syria to fight with the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

Economic Effects of Brexit

The government of Britain estimates that in case of strife at the border due to trade or decline in migration, it will lead to a 3.9% decrease in GDP over 15 years. That will result in approximately £100 billion lower national output per year. Reducing border trade issues and a higher rate of migration can help ease the situation to a certain extent.

But if the UK goes with Canada style trade agreement, then the loss of GDP would be around 6.7% and in case of a no deal Brexit, it would decrease by a rate of 9.7%. So, by looking at this estimates a proper deal is the best option that the government has.

15 years is a long period and the estimates are based on the current model. But it is clear from the government evaluation that there will be some negative impact of Brexit on the economy. It will be just for a short time. The economy will recover overtime.

Ways to Tackle the Negative Impacts

It’s indispensable for the UK to rebuild trade relationship with the EU. Trade relations with other major economies have to be reconstructed as well.

Besides, these estimates won’t have an impact on financial stability. Even no deal Brexit will not have an effect on the financial stability of BOE and other financial institutions.

So, the government’s preparedness is the one thing that will have an impact on economic stability and that’s where the focus has to be put upon.

However, it is important to know if the government of UK would abide by the International Trade terms of the WTO after October? This decision would definitely have an effect on economic and financial stability after Brexit.

Impact of Brexit on United Kingdom

Unfortunately, the Brexit result has led to an ugly breed of xenophobia across the country, by a small minority of people who feel that their racist and xenophobic ideas have been legitimized by the vote to leave the EU. Scotland look likely to have another referendum to leave the United Kingdom after a majority of Scottish voters voted to Remain. Northern Ireland is considering a similar idea too, as they are the only nation that share a boundary with an EU country and also voted in the majority to remain. They rely on the EU to play a part in the ongoing peace process between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland – and it’s unlikely that they’re going to risk that fragile peace on the risk of Brexit. If both leave, we’ll be left with England and Wales. Both countries voted to leave the EU (although Wales may have changed its mind) and so will likely remain part of the UK, but losing two countries from the UK will call lots of things into question. Even if Scotland and Northern Ireland don’t leave the UK, the country will be divided up into two camps that are becoming further and further apart.

This side-effect, among others, only serves to enhance and widen the chasm between the two sides of the EU debate – and it’s this chasm that now calls into question the concept of our national identity. Young vs Old. Left vs Right. Remain vs Leave. Us vs Them. With every day, our country is looking less and less like the One Nation. Whichever side of the debate you fall on, it’s becoming clear that the UK is becoming an increasingly fractured society and that’s bound to have long-lasting social affects. Just two weeks in, these effects are almost impossible to predict, but they’re likely to have an enormous effect on the future of those just beginning their adult lives, socially and economically.

The Erasmus program has, for years, allowed UK students to study at institutions across Europe for free. Brexit will have a sever negative impact on the education of the young generation. Also, the universities receive millions of pounds from the EU as grants and from the international students. When all these disappears, it will create a hole in their income that will have a knock-on effect on the quality of education they can provide for students and their international reputation.

It is estimated that approximately 100,000 jobs will be lost as a result of leaving the EU. If the economy is hit or we head into a recession, it’s likely that the burden will fall hardest on young workers at the beginning of their careers.

Travelling will become expensive to Europe for higher airfares. Visa will be required to go to the Europe which was not required when UK was a part of the EU.

The Leave EU camp repeatedly claimed that, due to control of immigration, young people would find it easier to buy houses – as rising immigration has a result on the price of housing.

While this is a possibility, it’s also possible that the opposite will happen – as the economy takes a hit, credit conditions may tighten and make it much harder to get a mortgage.

On top of that, if the economy tanks and younger people find it hard to gain employment, then it’ll be even more difficult to save up for a deposit for a mortgage.

Impact of Brexit on the Diplomatic Strategies

The UK’s departure from the European Union (EU) represents a major shift in the diplomatic strategy of one of Europe’s leading economic, diplomatic and security players. The UK’s future relationship with the EU will condition the UK’s broader diplomatic approach to Europe. But in exiting the EU the ambitions and modalities of the UK’s other bilateral and multilateral relationships in Europe will undergo a recalibration. With the UK government having struggled since June 2016 to provide comprehensive detail on its ambitions for its future economic, political and security relationship with the EU, the development of the broader aspects of the UK’s post-Brexit European diplomatic strategy has been retarded.

However, through analysis of key speeches, government white papers, and other supporting documents and statements (and the experience of negotiating Brexit with the EU27), the outlines of a nascent post-Brexit UK European diplomatic strategy can be discerned. Whether this strategy will be adequate to provide the UK with a significant degree of influence on Europe’s international relations and whether it gives the UK sufficient ability to address the key challenges that it will face in Europe is less certain.

Conclusion

The ultimate fear around the continent is that Brexit could unravel the rest of the EU, especially if the UK economy performs well in its aftermath. Even barring that, Brexit will be a heavy blow to a union that has struggled to maintain a united front maintaining sanctions on Russia and managing the unprecedented wave of migrants. And, in the wake of 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, when France invoked the EU’s mutual defense clause for the first time, Brexit threatens to end Europe’s hopes for a truly common security and defense policy once and for all.

References

“Brexit: Everything you need to know”, Witious; Political Economics.
Jack Barclay, ”5 issues that may affect young people after Brexit”, 7 July 2016.
James McBride, ForeignAffairs.com, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder

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