The UAE’s Relationships With Pakistan and India

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Table of Contents

Threats of the Indo-Pak Conflict
UAE’s Contribution to the Crisis Resolution
Collaboration with International Powers
UAE’s Side
References

Despite the fact that Pakistan and India are considered to be arch-rivals, the UAE has bilateral relationships with both states. The Emirati and Pakistani leaders maintained close relations throughout the modern history of the nations. The UAE values Pakistan for the opportunity to invest in the profitable infrastructure and business projects and has a special interest in its energy sector and military.

Nowadays, the UAE continues to provide significant humanitarian assistance to the state in times of crises and, at the same time, acknowledges its strategic importance for the Emirates’ economic development. The UAE is one of the biggest investors in Pakistan. According to the recent reports, its investments in both private and public sectors of the country equaled nearly US $3.74 billion between 2004 and 2010 (Embassy of the United Arab Emirates, 2017). The countries also aim to develop trade relationships. For instance, during 2012-2013, the bilateral trade volume had increased from the US $7.6 billion to the US $10 billion, and the officials state that these numbers can still be enhanced (Almazroui, 2015).

When speaking of the UAE-India relations, the focus is made on defense, commerce, and the energy sector. Two-way trade constituted the core of the relations between India and the Emirates for centuries, but the new twist in the interstate relationship began with the establishment of the UAE Embassy in the Indian capital in 1972 (Tesorero, 2017). Then, the alliance was consolidated in a series of the leaders’ mutual visits starting from Shaikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan’s visit to New Delhi in 1975 (Tesorero, 2017).

Among the most important documents signed by the parties after Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed’s visit to India in January 2017 was the agreement on strategic storage and management of crude oil and the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership(International Relations Insights & Analysis, 2017).

The agreement on the supply of crude oil provides Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) with access to crude oil storage tanks with a capacity of up to 6 million barrels. It allows the national enterprise to increase the volumes of oil supplies to the Indian refining sector. It is also possible to say that the given strategic decision meets the growing needs of the energy sector, serves as a guarantee of national security, and opens up new opportunities for further UAE’s investments in the oil refining and petrochemical industries in India.

Threats of the Indo-Pak Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict is, first of all, associated with tremendous financial risks for the UAE. The blockage of the western Indian ports by Pakistani navy threatens the safety and security of sea lanes and freedom of navigation across the trade routes. For this reason, Pakistan’s invasion may interfere with the import of resources to the country and, in this way, will not allow the UAE to realize its plan for the increase in oil supply to the region. As a result, the overall oil revenues may substantially decline. Moreover, the conflict may interfere with the successful performance of cross-border commercial activities and trade.

Another threat is food insecurity. As many of the Gulf countries, the UAE significantly relies on Pakistan and India in addressing this issue. For instance, the UAE government and some private companies acquired over three hundred thousand hectares of farmland in Pakistan in order to meet the increasing demands for food in the domestic environment (Ahmed & Bhatnagar, 2010). The India-Pakistan conflict may thus provoke serious food shortages and prevent the UAE from resolving the current food insecurity forcing the country to seek other less cost-efficient solutions.

The conflict threatens the national security and the overall peace in the Gulf region because there is a risk that Pakistan’s invasion of Indian territories may result in the penetration of terrorist groups in the region. The Indian officials consider that Pakistan sponsors the jihadi terrorism and provides the Afghani terrorist with lands for military training (Ray, 2016). The particular concern related to threatened national and regional security is caused by the presence of nuclear weapons. The assumption about the patronizing of jihadist movement by Pakistan poses a concern about the implementation of those weapons in acts of terrorism. Since the fight against cross-border and religious terrorism is one of the strategic priorities in both the UAE and India. the given security threat should be considered along with the economic ones.

UAE’s Contribution to the Crisis Resolution

It is possible to say that at the current moment, the UAE has similar economic and diplomatic leverages with both states. Sanctions on commercial and trade operations can be used as the economic leverage vis-a-vis Pakistan. The UAE may also suspend the current Pakistan Assistance Program, and bring to a stop the further investments in the state’s economy and infrastructure development. Such a move may be detrimental to Pakistan’s economy as the UAE remains one of its biggest investors.

While in the case of Pakistan it may be useful to increase the cost of continuing the conflict, in the case of India, it will be better to emphasize the benefits of the fight cessation because India cannot be considered an aggressor in the current conflict. For instance, the UAE may use the opportunities for investment in the Indian energy sector, trade, and commerce as economic leverage vis-a-vis India.

The development of the shared cultural and historic identity with reference to the political and strategic ties may be used as diplomatic leverage vis-a-vis both India and Pakistan. According to Reid (2015), the given type of intangible leverage is more effective than the economic ones because it usually leads to long-term results. The UAE and Pakistan have close fraternal relations, and the Indo-Emirati links are lon-established as well. Diplomats may thus accentuate these historical ties and emphasize the commitment shown by the countries to each other in the past.

The suspension of defense cooperation with Pakistan can be regarded as one of the ways to leverage the cost of continued fighting (military leverage). Nowadays, many Pakistani soldiers are deployed in the UAE army – the given strategy is used by the state to expand its military power in the Gulf region. By terminating the cooperation with Pakistan in defense sector, the UAE will be able to reduce the country’s influence.

Collaboration with International Powers

During the history of the Indo-Pak conflict, India tended to negate the involvement of third parties and insisted on the bilateral basis for the crisis resolving (with reference to Simla Accord), while Pakistan acknowledged the UN Security Council resolutions and admitted the possibility of international support (Roy-Chaudhury, 2004). The controversies in the parties’ views on the problem create barriers to a positive outcome and contribute to continual fighting. Due to the presence of a significant ideological and informational asymmetry in the conflict, the bilateral negotiations between the states have not been effective so far. Thus, it is possible to say that the involvement of the third party is needed.

It can be recommended for the UAE to act as part of the UN Umbrella Organization because it assisted in the short-term relief of the conflict many times before. For instance, the timely involvement of the UN via the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) accelerated the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement which consequently led to an end of military actions in 1949 (Cheema, 2015).

The UN is a universal international organization, and the major purpose of its activities is the promotion of global peace and security. Since 1949, it actively participates in the development and search of potential ways for the long-term solution for the enduring Indo-Pak crisis. The history shows that the UN’s involvement was associated with short-term benefits in the progress of the conflict as, in 1965, the representatives of the UN Security Council insisted on interstate negotiations and re-established Kashmire as a cease-fire zone (Cheema, 2015).

Based on the profound experience of the organization, by cooperating with the UN, the UAE will become able to influence the adverse situation much better than when acting alone. It is possible to assume that by integrating the UAE’s tangible and intangible leverages in relation to the states into the UN peace-building endeavors, the international community will increase chances to normalize the Indo-Pakistani relations more efficiently.

UAE’s Side

It is possible to presume that the UAE will choose the side of India mainly due to the political factors. The geopolitical landscape of the crisis suggests that the UAE government should support Pakistan as, in this way, it would be possible to mitigate national security risks because Pakistan’s large allies including Iran and Turkmenistan are territorially proximate to the UAE. Nevertheless, the recent political events make it clear that despite the historical ties between the states, the UAE and Pakistan have different political interests and goals and, therefore, the Emirati leaders may choose the side of India instead.

For instance, one of the major let downs in the relationships between the UAE and Pakistan was the refusal of the latter to support the former’s military operations in Yemen (Sibal, 2015). Moreover, although it is hard to deny the strategic significance of Pakistan for the Emirates, the alliance with India has become more beneficial. For example, comparing to US $7 billion volume of trade with Pakistan in 2015, the volume of bilateral trade with India the same year stood at US $60 billion (Haqqani, 2017). Additionally, the volume of the UAE’s investments in India’s economy is much bigger now comparing to its neighbor.

Overall, it is possible to conclude that the recent expansion of the strategic partnership with New Delhi may reveal the UAE’s current political preferences. Although the UAE is closer related to Pakistan in terms of cultural-religious background, their views on multiple things including religious fundamentalism and jihadism differ. At the same time, Pakistani leaders could see in the UAE’s efforts to improve collaboration with India, its arch-enemy, as threatening. It possible contributed to the recent weakening of the UAE-Pakistani relationship. Base on this, in the current conflict between the states, the UAE will likely seek an alliance with the state that will support it in the critical moments as well. And, in the given case, India is more suitable for this role.

References

Ahmed, A.S., & Bhatnagar, S. (2010). Gulf States and the conflict between India and Pakistan. Journal of Asia Pacific Studies, 1(2), 259-291. Web.

Cheema, M.J. (2015). Pakistan–India conflict with special reference to Kashmir. A Research Journal of South Asian Studies, 30(1), 45–69. Web.

Embassy of the United Arab Emirates. (2017). Bilateral relations. Embassy of the United Arab Emirates. Web.

International Relations Insights & Analysis. (2017). UAE, India sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. IRIA. Web.

Ray, J. K. (2016). Cross-border terrorism: Focus on Pakistan. Delhi, India: Shipra.

Reid, L. (2015). Finding a peace that lasts: Mediator leverage and the durable resolution of civil wars. Web.

Roy-Chaudhury, R. (2004). The United States’ role and influence on the India-Pakistan conflict. Web.

Almazroui, A. (2015). Why is Pakistan not supporting its old friend at this critical time?. The National. Web.

Sibal, K. (2015). New India-UAE ties will hurt Pakistan bad. Daily O. Web.

Tesorero, A. (2017). UAE-India: A partnership that dates back centuries. Khaleej Times. Web.

Haqqani, H. (2017). UAE reminds Pakistan of changed realities. The Huffington Post. Web.

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