North and South Korea Unification: Issues and Probability

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The separation of North Korea and South Korea occurred after the end of the World War II (Ahn 43). Before the creation of the two states, Japan had colonized Korea for 35 years. The Korean independence pact was signed in the year 1943. The agreement was overseen by the US, Britain, and China. At the beginning of the year 1945, the UN initiated a plan to form two autonomous states (Ahn 44). In the year 1946, Korea was divided into two military zones. Initially, the separation was meant to be temporary. However, the Cold War’s politics resulted in the creation of two different countries. Ever since then, the two countries have had a number of differences that have resulted in conflicts. Illustrated below is a map of the two states.

A picture of a map showing South and North Korea.

Korean unification implies to the possible future recombination of North Korea and South Korea. The initiative was launched in the year 2000 (Coghlan 43). The initiative was named North-South Joint Declaration. In the pact, the two countries vowed to remove barriers that have prevented the unification in the past. Notably, the process of unification has experienced a number of issues. The issues have resulted in endless tensions between the two states.

The cost of reunification is the major issue expected to be experienced during the process. Huge cost will be incurred in uplifting the living standards of the North Koreans to match with that of the South Koreans (Koh 480). North Korea, unlike the South Korea, is still considered a developing country. The country has higher levels of unemployment and its per capita incomes are lower. If the two states unify, it will be very expensive to match their living standards. Economists have argued that more than $500 billion will be required for a period of twenty years (Wolf & Kamil 23). Based on these statistics, it is apparent that unification will come at a cost.

Dangers associated with transition are also viewed as the major issues affecting the unification process. Given that the past talks and agreements aimed at unifying the two states have not been successful, many scholars have argued that unification will be realized after the fall of the North Korean administration. The downfall of North Korea will be realized after a regional war, power tussle between leaders in the region, or an economic collapse. In such situations, South Korea will be required to send in troops to the region to offer humanitarian services (Wolf & Kamil 23). The services will be essential in preventing further instability. For unification to be successful, during such times, the North Korean people are expected to cooperate with the South Korean administration. If the North Korean people resists, more troops will be needed to manage the situation. Based on the above illustrations, it is apparent that Korean unification is expected to face tremendous issues.

Other issues expected during unification are challenges of decommissioning and destroying North Korea’s enormous armed forces. If unification becomes successful in the future, North Koreas’ weapons of mass destruction should be destroyed to ascertain stability in the region. The process of identifying, sorting, and decommissioning the weapons will be very costly and would take years.

The above issues will delay the economic dividends expected because of unification. However, in the long-term the unification will benefit the two countries and the region (Wolf & Kamil 23). As such, the unification would result in the long awaited peace dividend for Korean people. Through this, the living standards of North Koreans will be enhanced. Similarly, the North Koreans will be able to enjoy their democratic and civil rights because unification will result in the abolition of cruel, dictatorial regime.

In this regard, dialogues focusing on the costs and benefits of reunion ought to acknowledge the tremendous issues about the transition phase, dangers of transition, and the time required to decommission and destroy North Korea’s enormous armed forces. The above issues could have momentous effects for the government strength and economic potential of a united Korea.

The probability of South Korea and North Korea unification is high. According to some scholars, the unification may be attained sooner than expected (Koh 480). With the current dictatorial regime in North Korea, the citizens are likely to act against those in administration in the near future. The Arab spring witnessed in North Africa and the Middle East revealed that no dictatorial regime is immune to revolution from the citizens. In the occurrence of a revolution, South Korea will take control of North Korea to provide the essential humanitarian services.

Equally, the reunion may occur through a negotiated agreement. In the future, the leaders of the two governments may come to an agreement on how to unite the warring states without causing anarchy. In such a situation, the two states will benefit because cost required in maintaining order during conflicts will be directed towards development projects.

Works Cited

Ahn, Byung‐Joon. “Managing Reunification in the Korean Peninsula.” The Adelphi Papers 2.4 (2012): 83-93. Print.

Coghlan, David. Prospects from Korean Reunification. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2008. Print.

Koh, Ban. “Dilemmas of Korean Reunification.” Asian Survey (1971): 475-95. Print.

Wolf, Charles, & Kamil Akramov. North Korean Paradoxes Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2005. Print.

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North and South Korea Unification: Issues and Probability

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