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The steps that should be taken
I have already reviewed various books and articles that cast a light on the intelligence challenges related to the homeland security. Furthermore, I have examined a variety of groups that can pose a threat to America and its allies. At this point, it is necessary to apply the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP). I will need to perform each of the steps that are included in this approach. At first, I will identify the groups whose actions can be relevant for understanding the research question. For instance, I will discuss various governmental agencies as well as terrorist groups. Furthermore, I will examine their intentions and long-term goals (Lockwood 2013, 10). Additionally, I will discuss each of the strategies that these stakeholders can adopt. It is also vital to explain how potential scenarios can be combined with one another. This stage is necessary to explain the impacts of strategies adopted by various organizations. Moreover, I will single out the primary dangers that intelligence agencies should take into consideration. Finally, I will outline the main findings that are useful for understanding and averting various threats to homeland security.
The challenges and concerns
Overall, there are several concerns that are of great importance to me. It should be mentioned that the LAMP method requires the determination of possible scenarios that intelligence agencies should consider (Evans 2011, 356). Moreover, one should estimate the probability of a certain scenario (Singh 2013, 83). One of the problems is that such estimations will be arbitrary. So, it is possible that the findings derived from the use of the LAMP may not be accurate.
There is another difficulty that should be taken into account. In particular, I may fail to identify some of the possible scenarios. Such omissions can undermine the accuracy of results and impair the decision-making of intelligence agencies. Furthermore, one can overlook some of the events that can have potential implications for the security of the United States. Apart from that, there are many dependent and independent variables that should be included in the analysis. However, in many cases, it is difficult to measure these variables and their impact. It is one of the difficulties that should be considered.
One should pay attention to other details as well. In particular, this research is based on the study of various secondary sources that can cast a light on potential intelligence challenges. For instance, it is possible to mention such challenges as cyber warfare and the threats posed by radical groups. However, in this case, relevant data may not be disclosed to the public (Pedahzur 2013, 12). Moreover, this study will be examining the organizations that lack transparency. Furthermore, people, who guide these organizations, can make considerable mistakes while taking strategic choices. Moreover, these individuals can also act irrationally. Therefore, some of the assumptions included in my analysis may be inaccurate or at least incomplete.
So, I need to consider these details in my analysis. Moreover, while presenting the findings, I will need to explain some of these limitations. In my view, the discussion of these issues is important for understanding and evaluating the primary security challenges. Despite these limitations, the use of the LAMP is entirely justified because this method can show how different agents can impact homeland security.
Reference List
Evans, Daniel. 2011. International Affairs and Intelligence Studies Primer. New York: Lulu.
Lockwood, Jonathan. 2013 The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP): A Method for Predictive Intelligence Analysis. New York: Bloomsbury Publishing.
Pedahzur, Ami. 2013. Political Parties and Terrorist Groups. New York: Routledge.
Singh, Jai. 2013. The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction within a Probabilistic Framework. Journal of Strategic Security 6, no. 3: 83-99.
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