History of Developing Chinese and Japanese Nations

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Introduction

Great political changes have taken place in Asia since the Second World War. Among the most significant influences upon international politics have been the rise of Communist China and the resurgence of Japan. Although ideologically Communist China and Japan take opposite stands, geographical proximity, cultural affinity, and economic considerations are the factors that tend to draw them together.

Sino-Japanese trade is one of the most talked-about topics in Japan. It is also a very potent drawing card in the possession of Peking. Prompted by economic considerations, the Japanese for some time have been seeking a relaxation of the free world’s export controls and an expansion of their trade with the Chinese mainland. With more political than economic motivations, the Chinese Communists have been using the lucrative China trade as the Chief inducement to woo the Japanese. In an atmosphere as such, a whole set of myths and misconceptions has arisen to obscure the realities of the problem.

Economic relations between China and Japan have been of long-standing, but until the twentieth century did trade between the two countries develop into important proportions. For years before the Sino-Japanese war the Chinese continent (including Manchuria and the Kwantung leasehold) was both a key market for Japan’s manufactured goods and an important supplier of raw materials for her industries. (Howe, Christopher, page 56-60)

The industrial sector has retrenched dramatically in recent months. In November of 2009 alone, productivity fell more than eight percent, with export capacity down a huge fifteen percent. The sturdy yen, which has consumed into earnings margins, is partially at fault. But a collapse in demand in Japan’s key markets is the main culprit. Most disturbingly, exports to China fell by twenty five percent on a year. Business confidence has sunk and investment is being cut.

The real problem for exporters, however, is the worldwide collapse in demand for manufactured goods, especially capital goods. Machinery exports fell 23% on the year in November 2009, and electrical machinery exports and motor vehicles by 30%. Most worryingly, even demand from China appears to be on the slide, with exports to China down 25% on the year in November.

Japan’s main trading partner is the US, but China has rapidly developed into a big market for Japanese exports and may even be considered to be the largest market if trade via Hong Kong is included in the estimates. Since 2002, the share of exports to China has increased by four percentage points (direct trade). Other nations where there is increasing demand for Japanese goods include India and Eastern Europe. Japan’s trade is increasingly widespread and diverse and this should ensure continuing export success. (Kamis, Tali Levine, 53)

In spite of political complexities, relations between Japan and Communist China have steadily improved in the past few years. All signs indicate that this trend will continue in the foreseeable future. However, because of Japan’s international commitments, immediate recognition of the Peking government by Tokyo is not expected; the restoration of Sino-Japanese official ties nevertheless will probably come within a few years.

Keeping an eye on Washington and Taipei, the Japanese government is still holding off the decision to recognize Peking in the hope that the complicated China problem can be solved through the United Nations or through a compromise on the basis of the “two Chinas” theory. Although many Japanese seem to appreciate the complex nature of the China problem, the pressures, both internal and external, for Japan to “normalize” ties with the mainland are constantly growing. The conservative government appears to be marking time and may not delay the action any longer if public opinion reaches a point at which such delay would enable the Socialist party to make important political gains on this emotion-packed issue.

Barring unexpected varies on the international scene, it seems certain that Japan and Communist China will move in the direction of closer and friendlier relations. In the years to come there will be freer movements, greater trade, and more cultural and other exchanges between the two countries. The Chinese Communists will naturally use every additional tie and every newly-opened channel to try to influence the thinking, the life, and the policies of the Japanese. With official relations established with Japan, they will be in an even better position to spread propaganda and to broaden their contacts with Japanese groups and interests. (Ries, Melanie, 62+)

Bibliography

Howe, Christopher. China and Japan: History, Trends, and Prospects. Oxford University Press, Oxford. 1996.

Kamis, Tali Levine. Greater China and Japan: Prospects for an Economic Partnership in East Asia. The China Business Review, 24, 5, 1997, 53.

Ries, Melanie International Arbitration in Japan & China. Dispute Resolution Journal, 61, 4, 2006, 62+.

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History of Developing Chinese and Japanese Nations

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