Epidemiology of Diabetes and Forecasted Trends

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Table of Contents

Introduction
Epidemiologic Indices, Risks, and Prevention of Diabetes
Discussion of Methodology
Conclusion
References

Introduction

Diabetes has become a global threat to people all over the world, which means that it should be properly studied. This paper aims to critically analyze the article “Epidemiology of Type 2 Diabetes – Global Burden of Disease and Forecasted Trends” by Khan et al. (2020). It was published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, which is a peer-reviewed source integrating scholarly articles on worldwide epidemiology and innovative ways to improve global health policies.

Epidemiologic Indices, Risks, and Prevention of Diabetes

In their article, Khan et al. (2020) begin with a brief and focused introduction to clarify the topic of interest. The authors note that urbanization and the rapid development of economies of different countries are the main causes of diabetes. According to Onyango and Onyango (2018), whose study is mentioned in the chosen article, these factors affect the increased pace of life, fast food eating, and a lack of physical activity. These are the risks of developing diabetes, and they also lead to comorbid diseases and premature death. The elder adults aged 65 and over present the main population at risk, but the given study did not aim to differentiate between ages. However, they indicate that diabetes incidence peaks in those aged between 55 and 59 years, while adolescents and younger adults compose only 4.4 percent of those diagnosed with this disease (Khan et al., 2020). A lack of awareness regarding the need to promote healthy weight is also included in risk factors.

The results reported by the authors of the identified research paper are thought-provoking, logical, and concise. Khan et al. (2020) find an alarming increase in the rate of diabetes within the last decades. Namely, they state that it raised from the 18th leading death cause to the 9th in 2017 worldwide. Some differences regarding geographic areas are provided: Pacific island countries have high disease prevalence (Fiji (20,277 per 100,000) or Samoa (18,312)) (Khan et al., 2020). The most densely populated countries (China, the US, and India) maintain the highest rates of diabetes. For lower-income countries, the disease-related burden is higher compared to those with higher income. As for gender differences, some minimal difference is noted regarding males, who are more likely to develop diabetes and suffer from its symptoms.

Another strong point of the reviewed study is its forecasting issues and their detailed discussion. Khan et al. (2020) expect that by 2030, diabetes prevalence will increase to o 7079 cases per 100,000 people and by 2040, 7862 cases per 100,000 people. The authors warn that current diabetes strategies are not effective since the rate of the disease is likely to grow (Khan et al., 2020). This explanation seems to be accurate as it reflects the actual situation and calls for urgent action. More to the point, it should be stressed that the authors promote shifting a focus from drug therapy to lifestyle changes. They can involve ceasing smoking and sedentary lifestyles, as well as restructuring communities to ensure access to healthy food.

Even though the authors properly discuss diabetes risk factors, they pay little attention to possible prevention and / or treatment options. Namely, Khan et al. (2020) only provide some assumptions about the need to act not only at the national but also at local and federal levels. In another epidemiological study, Forouhi and Wareham (2019) offer creating personalized prevention programs, for example, by combining genetic and lifestyle risk factors for diabetes. In turn, Selvin and Juraschek (2020) mark acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) as a significant risk factor for people with diabetes while diagnosing them with COVID-19. Like Selvin and Juraschek (2020), Khan et al. (2020) argue that the current literature lacks the understanding of what exactly should be done to prevent the diabetes pandemic in terms of public health. These results are consistent with Hostalek (2019), who states that there is a threat of the global diabetes epidemic. Accordingly, Khan et al. (2020) call for aggressive action at local, federal, and national levels to design and implement diabetes prevention programs.

Discussion of Methodology

Methodology is a critical part of any study as it identifies the depth and accuracy of research. To analyze data, Khan et al. (2020) use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to collect the required information. Considering that this database is prepared and updated by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the source of information can be considered credible. In addition, the authors clarify their choice by stating that the GBD includes the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), which is a more accurate indicator of people’s quality of life and human suffering. Another strong point of the chosen study methodology is that all data was updated in 2017 and that the GDB synthesizes more than 100,000 sources. To examine and structure information about diabetes from the given source, the authors of the article referred to the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) instrument that allows processing data and modeling solutions.

The main bias of the study by Khan et al. (2020) is its complete reliance on secondary data that was collected from other sources. The bias can be related to a lack of proper analysis, measurement issues, or inappropriate data. Different study designs involved in the database also present a potential source of bias. Nevertheless, the DALYs indicator, as well as the constantly updated nature of the mentioned database make it a valuable source of statistics. Aa an alternative methodology, it would probably be better to use more than one database to make sure that data is diversified. It should be stressed that such methodology will be more complex to analyze the sample data, but the results are likely to be more accurate. The key benefit of this alternative is minimal data collection bias, yet the design bias is possible due to paying less attention to the context compared to researchers’ personal preferences in choosing raw data.

Conclusion

To conclude, the critical review of the chosen article shows that diabetes is a serious condition that tends to become one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Based on the SPSS method, the authors state that diabetes becomes younger since not only older adults but also those younger than 40 ages become obese and develop the metabolic syndrome. Contemporary diabetes control measures, such as glucose lowering and drug therapies, prove to be ineffective. Therefore, the authors propose that the burden of diabetes would raise and that urgent measures are needed. In general, the reviewed scholarly article is a valuable source of epidemiologic data about diabetes, which can be used by public health activists and policy makers.

References

Forouhi, N. G., & Wareham, N. J. (2019). Epidemiology of diabetes. Medicine, 47(1), 22-27.

Hostalek, U. (2019). Global epidemiology of prediabetes – Present and future perspectives. Clinical Diabetes and Endocrinology, 5(1), 1-5.

Khan, M. A. B., Hashim, M. J., King, J. K., Govender, R. D., Mustafa, H., & Al Kaabi, J. (2020). Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes – Global burden of disease and forecasted trends. Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, 10(1), 107-111.

Onyango, E. M., & Onyango, B. M. (2018). The rise of noncommunicable diseases in Kenya: An examination of the time trends and contribution of the changes in diet and physical inactivity. Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, 8(1-2), 1-7.

Selvin, E., & Juraschek, S. P. (2020). Diabetes epidemiology in the COVID-19 pandemic. Diabetes Care, 43(8), 1690-1694.

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Epidemiology of Diabetes and Forecasted Trends

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