Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited

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Table of Contents

Introduction
The Syria-Climate Conflict Thesis
Climate Change and Syria’s Drought
Drought and Migration
Migration and Civil War
Conclusions
Reference List

Introduction

The article under consideration deals with a possible link between climate change and such major events as a civil war. Selby et al. (2017) note that the debate related to the influence of climate change on social issues in countries is quite recent. The Darfur war is seen as an illustration of such effects, and policymakers often refer to that war as a reason for immediate actions to improve the environmental situation. However, Selby et al. (2017) also add that some studies show that there is no link between climate change and wars. The authors aim at exploring the relationship between climate change and the war in Syria.

The Syria-Climate Conflict Thesis

Selby et al. (2017) note that the Syria-climate conflict thesis is mainly based on the findings provided in three studies. The thesis consists of three assumptions: drought in the 2000s in Syria was anthropogenic to a great extent, the drought led to internal migration, and these demographic changes contributed to the unrest and the war. Selby et al. (2017) stress that the proponents of the thesis refer to climate change as a final, significant, primary factor, or a factor of unknown significance. The authors note that the purpose of their paper is to explore the quality of the evidence provided by the supporters of the thesis. The researchers focus on data accuracy, geographical location, temporality, human agency, and some other causes of the migration in Syria.

Climate Change and Syria’s Drought

One of the major points made by Selby et al. (2017) is that the proponents of the thesis do not provide statistical data regarding rainfall in Syria. At the same time, they claim that droughts in the 2000s were severe. Selby et al. (2017) also add that the supporters of the thesis focus on the territory of Fertile Crescent that includes Syria and 14 more countries. The periods of droughts mentioned by the proponents of the thesis are also different. However, Selby et al. (2017) found no sufficient data concerning considerable and long-term droughts in Syria or even in the region. Moreover, the link between people’s activities and droughts is not supported by any sound evidence.

Drought and Migration

As for the second element of the thesis, Selby et al. (2017) state that the relationship between drought and migration is not as direct and substantial as described by the proponents of the thesis. The authors argue that there is a link between droughts and migration, but its significance is limited. Moreover, according to Selby et al. (2017), there is no statistical information regarding the number of immigrants within Syria, so the numbers given by the supporters of the thesis are unreliable. The proponents of the thesis fail to consider political changes in the country and the fact that migration started before the droughts.

Migration and Civil War

The supporters of the thesis claim that the migration of the poor rural population to urban areas that were also stagnating led to the intensification of the social unrest in the cities. Selby et al. (2017) argue that these assumptions are based on newspaper and policymakers’ reports, while it was essential to consider ethnographic data and interview people. The authors add that migration was a continuous trend that had started before the civil war, so no direct link between the two trends exists. Finally, there is little or no evidence that the rural population took part in uprisings.

Conclusions

The supporters of the Syria-climate conflict thesis note that some environmental issues (such as droughts) can worsen the situation in a country and contribute to the intensification of the tension within the society. Selby et al. (2017) note that there is no relationship between climate change and the civil war in Syria. The authors stress that the provided evidence to support the thesis is rather weak and needs further investigation.

Reference List

Selby, J, Dahi, OS, Fröhlich, C & Hulme, M 2017, ‘Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited’, Political Geography, vol. 60, pp. 232-244.

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