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Risk management is currently a core integral process that helps to identify risks and come up with plans to mitigate their effects on projects. In production management, risks affect the quality or performance of a developed product. In the construction industry, risks can disrupt schedules of projects, as well as resources used in the project. Success of any project within the construction industry relies on the level of risk management that contractors put in place to curb construction risks.
With increasing construction activities and competition in this industry, there is urgent need to inculcate risk management in the entire construction process. At the same time, no construction project will be risk-free, thus applying ways of preventing and managing them is crucial in avoiding financial losses (Gentle 2002).
Risk management techniques must start from the initial stage of construction to the final stage, and in the process foresee possible risking factors that can undergo immediate mitigation process. Risk management has procedures that help in final mitigation of risks at all phases of construction.
Since construction projects are open systems, there is need to adjust the risk management process to the cooperative environment (Winch 2012). With high variability and riskiness of such projects, this industry ought not to rely on contracts for risk management. The processes are in a sequence, from risk identification to risk monitoring. There are also risk analysis and planning within the mentioned process.
With each construction stage presenting different risks, risk management process also changes to match the risk. Risk management at the construction sites is essential in enhancing the overall safety of labourers. Through operations management, managers are able to identify and manage inherent risks within the construction industry (Gunn 2009).
Uncertainty arises when the exact outcome of a project is not known, that is, there exist more than one possibility resulting in lack of complete conviction. In this parameter, there are probabilities in a given set of possibilities for occurrence of an event. The research paper discusses the changes in risk management processes at different phases of a project. Besides, the discourse expounds on how risk analysis for a construction project drive decision-making processes under uncertainty conditions at all the phases of a project.
Risk management process begins with identification of risks in a construction project. For project managers, setting risk management techniques into stages makes it possible in ensuring that products at each phase meet their purposes. Since many actors are involved in the project phases, contractors have to ensure that a party that has the best corresponding qualifications addresses such risks. For any typical project, there are the initiation, planning, implementation and closure phases (Li et al. 2005).
These stages represent the path a project goes through from commencement to its completion. In meeting the goals and objectives of a project, the contractor, project manager, designer, and owner must have one shared goal at all the phases of construction. Simultaneously, risk management must go together with the outlined phases. At the initiation stage of a project where the outlining of the purpose of a project occurs, risks that associate with identification are unknown.
However, possible risks at this phase must be measured against the benefits that the success of a project might have in order to determine whether to select the project or not (Gunn 2009). This stage touches on aims and objectives of the project, consultation process, and overall management of the design process. Since this phase is significant in determining the state of future phases, a risk management plan is necessary to mitigate potential risks that may arise (Gentle 2002).
For instance, in identifying key stakeholders who intend to finance a construction project, there are possibilities of support withdrawal. This constitutes a risk that concerned parties must have immediate solutions to address the situation, thus avoiding scenarios of project delay as per the schedule.
Time, cost, and quality form the framework for eventual evaluation of project risks and performance. In the UK, for instance, the government has allowed clients to consider other sustainability-related parameters (Clayton 2001). With time factor in question, risk management techniques must be in place to help contractors organise and handover the project for commissioning and occupation to respective clienteles.
Poorly finished structures present numerous risks to users and the public. Notably, high risking structures imply high premium to insurance companies, which is quite expensive (Bunni 2003). A review of a case study on the construction of a 380-meter steel and concrete bridge by Hidden Critical Paths (HCP) reveals the unique risk management awareness that helped in covering the possible risks.
The project manager had no management alternative that could have prevented the hidden risks in the project. In another project, building an 18-storey office tower presented numerous risks in which the HCP Deep Schedule Analysis identified several exit strategies as ways of managing potential risks.
The management focused on the identified paths that contained 254 tasks in order to prevent hindrances to timely completion of the project. HCP brainstorms on possible risks that can occur within the schedule, and then formulates a risk mitigation plan that stipulates how to manage too risky situations (Smith 1999). Therefore, project management helps in identifying whether a project is extremely risky in order to put in place necessary mitigation measures in the plan.
Most risks are not always under the control of project co-ordinators, hence the need for continuous decision-making to address the complex risks. Some of these risks include quality of materials, weather, and labour productivity. In execution of projects, contractors should ensure that the hired labour is productive and are up to the task in order to meet the objectives of the project within the set timeline.
Construction projects may fail to realise their purpose due to delays from owner’s interference, financing and payments, and unproductive labour. In addition, slow decision-making, inadequate contractor experience, and improper planning constitute risks that can cause delay to project completion or stop the construction process (Vyas 2009).
Notably, risk management process at this phase deals in perfectionism and competency among key actors in the construction project. For example, after identifying the possible causes of risks at the initiation stage, there ought to be a guarantee that all actors have competent skills and experience in their respective fields of operation. The aforementioned networks of risks that can cause delays in project completion require adequate preparation to avert negative consequences.
According to Chapman (2001), risks determination occurs at early stages of construction, but their effects are visible at the construction and production start-up stages. Risk categorisation puts risks that arise from similar causes in a specific group. Some of the common classifications include political, technical, financial, and logistics. The process of risk management changes with the types and categories of risks that are highly likely to occur at a specific phase of construction.
With different phases of projects, cooperation in risk management is vital in minimising the total cost of the whole project, as it helps in managing unforeseen risks in the post-contract phases. Close and efficient cooperation help to coordinate and integrate different components of the entire project (Smith 1999).
Further, actors cannot foresee all risk items at the planning phase. Risk management processes are iterative, implying that they repeat themselves in the entire life cycle of a project. Since there are high possibilities of making fundamental changes at the initiation phase of a project, execution of a risk management process is strategic. Risk management process helps in ensuring that well-grounded and unbiased decision-making occurs during the entire project development phases.
Just like the phases of project development, risk management has three vital processes, which include identifying of risk, estimating the risk, and risk response planning and implementation. There are also different accessory processes: risk management planning, risk communication, risk ownership enlargement, risk management approach, and risk management control. One has to know the risks in order to device means of managing them.
A study by Hillson (2009) reveals the need to make risk identification process a continuous practice and have iterative rounds in order to meet the expected objectives of the project. Hillson held that identification is the most regularly used risk management element in all the phases of a project. Risk identification and categorisation use modelling, brainstorming, interviews, and analysis of project plans and different scenarios as key methods.
After identification of risks, evaluation and ranking occurs in order to prioritise risks for management and effective allocation of resources. Even though the initiation phase of a project seems to be risk-free, there are several tasks on forecasting on possible sources of risk occurrence, which have to take place in order to mitigate the risks. The risk identification stage in risk management process is highly significant in the entire process since the success of other stages rely on this phase.
Risk management is presented in a wider uncertainty scope, and from different perspectives to assist in identifying all possible causes of risks in a project. In risk identification, there is always a list of all the sources of known unknowns and sources of risk or uncertainty.
Clayton (2001) reiterates that the uncertainty perspective approach is the most preferable approach in the risk identification segment given that it does not only determine all possible sources of threats, but also all possible sources of positive risks or opportunities. With increasing changes in the construction environment, there is always unrelenting follow up and frequent updating of the identification list as per the knowledge and comprehension of the project atmosphere.
After risk identification, vivid evaluation and estimation in terms of the probability of occurrence and consequence take place. Here, a clear comprehension on the major effects of the risks on the objectives of the project is needed given that several projects have limited amount of resources to set aside for risk management forcing concentration on key risks. Estimations on the likelihoods and consequences of risks are highly considered for prioritisation.
Although the identified risks do occur across the entire phases of a construction project, identification and evaluation have to take place at the initial stage (Vyas 2009). Risk management processes are mostly applied practically in the execution phase and not at the early stages. However, identification remains concentrated at the initiation phase of the project with fewer instances at the later stages. At this stage, high priority is accorded to reliable and consistent estimates of occurrences and effects.
Qualitative and quantitative analysis are applicable in risk assessment, where estimation of risk probability and consequence occurs in simple scales with clearly defined boundaries (Gunn 2009). For example, a scale of values ranging from 1 to 5 helps in classifying risks, with those requiring most attention placed under group 1 while the less detectable are classified under group 5. Those risks under category 5 may require prompt action if there are adequate resources.
At the same time, action may be necessary if the cost of mitigating the risk is less than the result of possibilities of risk’s occurrence and effect on the goals of the project. A probability impact grid is also essential in helping to compare the impact and probability of risks. Risk mapping helps in giving due attention to risks that are easily detectable and even taking action to control risks that have less impact and probability of occurrence to a project.
Probability
Since the two discussed risk management processes do not provide sufficient support for the remaining processes, data from these two phases ought to be organised to support interpretation and conception of the risks. Gunn (2009) adds that risk assessment can occur in relating a risk to other risks since such relations can make minor risks turn out to be more relevant to the entire risk management process.
This stage looks into the possibility of one risk causing another risk to rise; this is a risk continuum, which is a cause-and-result-sequence. For effective and efficient risk management, managing risk continuums at all the phases of a construction project is vital. As Gunn (2009) points out, assessments of risk-links have to consider relatively small number of risks given that they have numerous links that can take care of low-probability risks, which may cause more severe risks.
The planning phase of a project is where contractors create a set of plans to assist in guiding the project team to the implementation and closure phases of any project. For project managers, this phase is the most challenging, as they have to make estimations on the equipment, resources, and staffs that they need in order to complete their projects. They have to plan their procurement and communication actions by contracting any third party dealers.
In essence, project managers use this phase to create clear and comprehensive roadmaps to guide the processes in completing a project. Notably, there are strategic plans that help in guiding project managers in completing projects on time and within the earlier set budget. Several plans are created at this phase.
Some of the plans touch on the project, resources, finance, quality, risk, communications, procurement, and performance review. Since projects are dynamic, new risks that remained unidentified in the early phase frequently surface overtime (Chapman 2001).
This calls for regular review of the Risk Management Plan (RMP) in order to make alterations and additions. In terms of risk management, a risk plan created at the planning phase of a project helps in further identifying risks and developing a plan to mitigate them. It guides project managers on how to reduce risks completely in any project. In addition, they can monitor and control risks effectively, thus enhancing their chances of attaining success.
Just like in the initiation phase, a risk management plan helps in risk identification, risk categorisation, and prioritisation, determination of the probability of occurrence and identification of impacts on a project if the risk occurs. Therefore, the risk plan can be useful to project managers, contractors, and subcontractors in identifying preventative measures that can avert risk from happening, as well as listing contingent processes to follow in reducing the impact in case of risk occurrence.
The risk plan also helps contractors to programme the set of actions within an acceptable timeline, as well as check the position of the risks throughout the project life cycle.
Evidently, the initiation and planning phase of a project do not involve practical application of risk mitigation procedures, but deal in planning on the possible sources of risk throughout the project and how to counter the risks in order to allow a project achieve its objectives (Chapman 2001). For quick risk mitigation, actors in a construction project must refer the risk plan regularly. A risk plan boosts chances of success in projects by helping to foresee risks and lessen their effects should they occur.
Risk response planning and execution of risk management process takes place at the planning phase of a project, in which it develops options and determines measures of minimising threats and increasing opportunities to the project goals. In risk response planning and execution, there are four options of handling risk, such as avoiding, transferring, mitigating, and accepting. Actors in the construction industry have to plan of how to cope up with risks.
The process requires vibrant and communal principles in order to acquire collective responsibility in managing risks. A consistent attitude towards risks ensures that planned and taken undertakings bring expected effects on project risks (Li et al. 2005). Since risk management processes are iterative and on-going processes, there is need to have effective control over this phase of risk management in order to ensure that the technique is incorporated at the start of the project and monitored to produce the expected results.
Li et al. (2005) accentuate the need for teamwork and communication among the actors in a construction project as a way of risk management. To monitor and control the risk management processes, one has to write and check documents, as well as organise for meetings. Since the actual construction begins at the implementation phase, risk management processes at the initiation and planning phases only evaluate the basis of earlier decisions and assess the relevance of assumptions made at the same stages.
At the implementation or execution phase of a project, project managers have to ensure that the staffs manage time, risks, quality, and other issues in order to achieve the objectives of projects (Wu 2011).
At this phase, risk management process elaborates on necessary steps that actors in a construction project ought to take in implementing risk management. Project execution phase presents the actual point where practical application of the identified risks and mitigation procedures eventuate.
In this phase, time management is vital in completing a project within a given timeline, as it helps in monitoring the real progress of a project. As well, there is need to have a rigorous process in dealing with management costs to make sure that the delivered project lies within the earlier set budget.
The cost management process helps to keep contractors within budget given that it aids in monitoring and controlling project expenses, hence acting as a mechanism for saving money. Actors in a project use risk register to track risks as they occur. In different stages of construction, a risk register assists in writing down the identified risks and the present status of the dependent actions assigned. The execution phase being the action stage, risk process identifies and documents critical and non-critical risks in risk forms.
The actors receive notifications on the severity of all the risks, and take necessary steps to lessen the likelihood of risk occurrence. In addition, the risk process outlines all the risk processes in depth, as well as includes a diagram to explain the entire process of risk. It shows ways of identifying, monitoring, and controlling risks, and assists in mitigating risk using finest practice processes (Bunni 2003).
Here, project managers compare the project’s position and advancement to the actual plan. Given that this is the actual practical work, project managers can adjust schedules after understanding the environment in order to keep the project on the completion path. Risk monitoring and control assist in executing the risk plan and regularly evaluating the effectiveness of the plan in minimising risks.
The process can also help in monitoring allocation of resources that had been pre-planned. Moreover, paying great attention to the process can help in effective decision-making prior to risk occurrence. Clearly, communication with all project stakeholders is indispensable to assess the tolerability of the risk level.
The closure phase of a project marks the end of all activities that had been taking place at a construction site. Markedly, the closure begins at the planning phase where there is emphasis on consistent and detailed inspections of all procedures and processes of construction during the entire life cycle of a project (Bunni 2003). For instance, project managers who take proactive approach in supervising activities in the project plan reports limited complaints from customers.
Notably, constant inspections ensure that contractors follow the requirements of the project plan, hence incorporating aspects of risk management processes. At this stage, finalisation of contracts that covered all the resources that had been used in the project occurs (Vyas 2009). Contract closure checks on the project results and financial usage in the project. At the same time, finalisation of all activities that different groups had been engaged in takes place.
In case of project failure, project managers have to give a clear subject assessment on the possible causes of failure. This process also gives project managers opportunities to appraise areas of success on the project and recommend ideas applicable to future projects. This phase presents recap of lessons that actors have learned in the whole construction period.
In terms of risk management, project managers acquire feedbacks from key actors in the project concerning risks that went unnoticed, risks that received low intervention, and possible risk mitigation procedures that are applicable to future construction projects (Bunni 2003). In this phase, project managers may propose use of alternative risk prevention strategies if the used option did little to change the situation.
Numerous and necessary adjustments on risk identification, estimation, response planning and implementation occur at this last stage of a project. Manifestly, the closure stage is an integral part of a project lifecycle as it involves documenting the experience gathered during the construction period (Wu 2011). As assessment on the effectiveness and profitability of a project occurs, the risk management processes also go through in-depth reviews.
For example, reviews on the effectiveness of risk prevention methods take place at this phase. Additionally, confirmations of whether the risks materialised, and if so, possibilities of upgrading the current prevention technique occur.
For risk management, this phase acts as a recapitulation for the effectiveness of the risk identification techniques, estimations, and responses. Recommendations contained in the project completion report help project managers to make necessary adjustments to risk management processes by comparing it to the documents prepared during the initiation and planning phases of the project (Winch 2012).
Risk management processes change across the phases of a project from theoretical dimensions to practical applications during the implementation phase of a project. With increasing complexity in designs, owners, architects, contractors, and project managers should fully integrate the concept of risk management in the entire life cycle of projects.
Project risk management (PRM) being an integral component of project management helps in cost estimation and schedule. Risk management identifies uncertainty and offers forecasts of probable consequences. Uncertainty is a state of unknown possibilities within a construction project. In recognising uncertainties, analysis of risk during the entire project acts as a positive influence on creativity in decision making for the success of a project.
At the initiation phase of a construction project, qualitative risk analysis aids in assessment of the effect and likelihood of the risk that have been identified (Akintoye & Macleod 1997). Risk analysis applies two approaches to gauge the probability of occurrence and the impact of risks on a project. Qualitative and quantitative analysis are applicable in assessing the degree of risk occurrence.
Qualitative analysis uses comparable degrees of probability and impact of all risks that have been identified as likely to occur in the phases of a project (Vose 2000). After the assessment, builders, architects, contractors, and designers make decisions on prioritising the lists of the risks for direct prevention. On such uncertainties, the project team evaluates the risks for their probability of occurrence and their effects on the goals of the project.
Actors in the construction industry will be able take immediate actions to address urgent risks that can cause great negative impact to the project. Therefore, risk analysis makes it possible for project managers to prioritise risks as per their probability of occurrence (Morgan, Henrion, & Small 1990).
Decision-making process relies on the risk assessment and overall review of project risks. At the same time, in identifying, describing, and characterising of project risks, contractors are able to decide on the best action path to follow in order to address uncertainties. In addition, risk analysis enables contractors to evaluate actions that can mitigate the identified risks through an iterative process, thus occurring at all points in construction project.
In limiting uncertainty, contractors come up with risk register that elaborates on the extent of risks in a project, thus making them move forward in difficult situations due to quick decisions on the risk categories (French 2005). Prioritisation helps actors in the construction industry to make prompt decisions as it provide specific and documented risk proceedings. In uncertain environments, prioritisation assists in making decisions and addressing risk in a direct and deliberate way.
Since risks influence project objectives, prioritisation helps project managers to acquire necessary information on project resources. The forecasting technique makes risk analysis vital in making proactive decisions on how to counter impeding risks in order to allow a project attain its objectives. Qualitative analysis provides a prioritised list of risks that actors in the construction industry should work on in order to minimise their effects.
From this dimension, qualitative risk analysis eases decision making to architects in mitigating certain risks, as well as providing ways forward of handling other risks after completion of projects. The initiation phase of a construction project in which prioritisation of risks occurs makes it possible for actors in a project to institute proactive actions that verify the causes and impacts of risks (Morgan et al. 1990).
Risk analysis in the planning stage of a project helps in forecasting on cost estimates, as it identifies and quantifies the overall costs through quantitative methods of analysis (Vose 2000). In dealing with uncertainties, risk analysis assist contractors and other key actors in a project put necessary strategies to control cost throughout the life cycle of a project. Risk analysis encompasses risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication; the assessment process touches on identification and evaluation of risks (Smith 2003).
At the management stage, actors in the construction industry look into ways of controlling the identified risks, while risk communication tends to keep all the actors informed of all the necessary steps to mitigate the evaluated risks. Using the information acquired from the risk identification stage, actors in a project can make informed decisions to control and prevent risks. At the planning stage, contractors decide on the risks that need mitigation or opportunities that ought to be pursued.
The quantitative risk analysis method deals in numerical probability on whether a project may meet its cost and timeline goals. It entails evaluating the effects of all the risks identified in a simultaneous pattern.
Smith (2003) contends that using probability theory as a quantitative technique makes it possible for project managers to plan into the future and forecast on possible consequences. In gathering and presenting data on risks that are likely to arise in the entire phases of a project, planners make decisions that limit the overall value of uncertainty.
Estimated cost and dates of project completion together with their confidence levels are in the probabilistic analysis of a construction project. In this aspect, discussions on the associated risk and uncertainty in a project help in making appropriate decisions. Uncertainty in the planning phase receives complete attention after determination of the appropriate range to use in possible space outcomes.
Notably, it is the risk analysis at the planning phase of a project that gives contractors the go ahead to continue working on a project. Given that cost and schedule are the most vital risks, actors will have to work together to ensure that there are no mismatch and delays in project completion (Flynn & Bellaby 2007). Risk analysis enables contractors and project managers to determine risk acceptability by targeting a certain qualitative threshold for opportunities or mitigation.
The process makes it possible for actors in a project to set limits for risk levels and cost effectiveness. After determining the acceptability of a risk, project managers decide to pursue acceptable cost effective strategies in order to limit occurrence of such risk.
At the execution phase of a project, actual results of risk analysis begin to come up. With this phase marking the beginning of actual construction, concerned parties in a project devices a cost control methodology that ensures that all project cost are in line with the prior budget estimates.
Actual realisation of the uncertainties and risks occur, with new information helping in expanding or updating the documentation on assessment of impacts and probability of earlier identified risks. Markedly, in the implementation phase, risk valuation takes place along with earned value analyses in order to control project’s overall cost. Earned value processes and risk assessment in this phase assist in making prudent decisions that are highly likely to lower the base marks for risks and costs (Flynn & Bellaby 2007).
Since risk management processes are continuous throughout the phases of a project, risk assessment helps in providing insights to items of different risk levels, thus aiding in identifying potential origins of variances. With early identification, project managers get adequate time to correct a problem that could have great impact on a project. Here, decision analysis helps in flagging prospective risks that may cause uncertainty at any point in the life cycle of a project.
Taking advantage of a particular risk determines appropriate strategies that are applicable from a decision tree analysis. For example, risk analysis using goal tree techniques at the implementation phase of a project assist project managers in understanding the essence of time, possessing accurate data, and acquiring systematic and simple corrective approaches (Bunni 2003).
Time as a factor in a project influences decision-making process on the outcome of a project. Parties to a project will be able to have numerous decision-making options in using goal trees that is constructed in a simple and swift manner. With presence of accurate data and ample time, decision-makers can be able to choose among different alternatives on how to come up with new risk management techniques, which are efficient and effective.
Decisions that can correct observable variance emanate after in-depth risk analysis. Implementation of such decisions requires continuous monitoring until the completion of a project in order to enhance their effectiveness. With high level of uncertainty in construction project management, cost control becomes part of risk analysis to take care of the cost of completing such projects.
According to Akintoye and Macleod (1997), decisions made from the outcomes of risk analysis prevent instances of structural defects, fund misappropriation, and even failure of a project from reaching completion. Project managers use risk-based cost control methodology to acquire structured frameworks that helps in making cost control decisions at the initiation, planning and execution phases of a construction project.
Using a simulation technique in determining schedules and costs of a project, as well as performing decision analysis, develop a highly cost-effective solution to cost problems. In the closure phase of a project, risk analysis takes a historical perspective given that the actual construction process is over. Actors in a construction project carry out overall review of the entire project occurrences, and propose possible decisions that project managers should make in improving mitigation processes in future projects (Bunni 2003).
With displays of risk events from risk profiles, project managers are able to make risk acceptability decisions. Construction project managers can also be able to compare the proportionality link between likelihood of an event and impact on risks. Such comparison helps in handling project’s uncertainties that would have affect one or more objectives of a project.
In real life aspect, risk analysis in construction projects helps in making proactive decisions that are not only cost effective, but also life-saving to the actors in the construction sites (Flynn & Bellaby 2007). For instance, risk analysis takes into concern the issue of occupational health and safety of people at the construction site, as well as the public.
Risk management process in projects remains a significant practice that players in the construction industry must inculcate in the entire process of project management. Risks, if not mitigated properly, can cause great harm to the objectives of a project. Project risk management requires collective understanding from the project team in order to help in project risk assessment and uncertainty in order to support effective decisions on project progress and handover.
Such decisions do not only take care of the project’s objectives, but also on the safety and wellbeing of the public. With the discussed significance of project risk management, risk management processes ought to take comprehensive approaches to look at projects and carry out assessments and documentation of uncertainty and risks. Risk mitigation process has to follow a sequential procedure in enhancing effectiveness in reducing risks.
Therefore, project managers should respond to identified risks basing their actions on risk analysis. Risks that are likely to cause significant consequences on the goals of a project should receive maximum effort and attention. Actors in the construction industry should take a wide perception on issues of risk analysis and management processes in order to bring sanity within the construction industry, in terms of risk mitigation.
References
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Clayton, C. R 2001, Managing geotechnical risk: improving productivity in UK building and construction, Thomas Telford, London.
Flynn, R., & Bellaby, P 2007, Risk and the public acceptance of new technologies, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, Hampshire England.
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